The Role of Policy in Achieving Shared, Sustainable Economic Prosperity

Can anything hold back China’s economy? Lawrence Summers, December 3, 2018, Opinion, “Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping reached an agreement over the weekend at the Group of 20 meeting in Argentina on a framework for trade dialogue that will delay the imposition of new U.S. tariffs. While surely better than the alternative, this step does not address any of the fundamental tensions in the economic relationship between the United States and China.” Link

The US-China conundrum. Lawrence Summers, November 30, 2018, Video, “Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said America has an inalienable right to police unfair trade practices by major trading partners. “We, in the United States, need to be very clear, we are entitled and we are right to reject Chinese cheating, Chinese violation of the rules, rules that don’t cover unfair practices,” Summers said during an interview on FOX Business’ “WSJ At Large With Gerry Baker Opens a New Window. ” on Friday. ”We’re right when we’re against that.”” Link

Trump’s trade wars and Brexit are making us all poorer. Jeffrey Frankel, November 27, 2018, Opinion, “The world is in a trade war and there is no sign of peace breaking out anytime soon. By now, the disruption to trade appears extensive enough to factor negatively into forecasts for economic growth. Does that mean the Federal Reserve should stop gradually raising interest rates?” Link

Stephen Walt on How Foreign Policy Elites Ruined the World. Stephen Walt, November 27, 2018, Audio, “Foreign policy scholar and historian, Stephen Walt, is not shy about calling out his profession and colleagues on a legacy of judgement errors, which he feels led to many geopolitical catastrophes. To deal with 21st century challenges, according to Walt, this foreign policy elite, called “The Blob” by former Obama foreign policy advisor, Ben Rhodes, must break free of its circular thinking, and allow in alternative viewpoints. Walt will detail for us examples of “The Blob’s” failure from his new book The Hell Of Good Intentions: America’s Foreign Policy Elite and the Decline of U.S. Primacy. Walt is professor of international relations at Harvard University, and writes for the Foreign Policy blog. ” Link

Introduction to: the euro at twenty. Laura Alfaro, November 27, 2018, Book Chapter, “January 1, 2019 marks 20 years since the introduction of the euro. This anniversary presents an opportunity to reflect on lessons learned from the first 20 years of EMU in Europe, and consider prospects for the future. The last few years have demonstrated the strains possible when multiple countries engage together in the bold venture of monetary union. The editors of Review of World Economics decided to invite several prominent thinkers to offer their insights, regarding what they believe was the biggest surprise from the euro’s first 20 years, and what is the biggest challenge for next 20 years.” Link

A Trade War is No Reason to Ease Monetary Policy.  Jeffrey Frankel, November 26, 2018, Opinion, “A trade war is a negative supply shock, and central banks cannot counteract the negative effects of current policies on real incomes in the United States, the United Kingdom, and many other countries. Only voters can do that.” Link

The Global Impact of a Chinese Recession. Kenneth Rogoff, November 11, 2018, Opinion, “Most economic forecasts suggest that a recession in China will hurt everyone, but that the pain would be more regionally confined than would be the case for a deep recession in the United States. Unfortunately, that may be wishful thinking.” Link

Exposing China’s Overseas Lending. Carmen Reinhart, October 31, 2018, Opinion, “China has fueled an unprecedented surge in official lending over the past 15 years. The most remarkable feature of this wave of credit, however, is not its size, but its dangerous lack of transparency.” Link

Former Clinton Aide Larry Summers Pounds Trump Trade Strategy as ‘Very Erratic‘. Lawrence Summers, October 17, 2018, Video, “The new North American trade agreement negotiated by the Trump Administration is slightly better than the original NAFTA, former Clinton Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers admitted, but the negotiating techniques used to achieve it were too risky, he said.” Link

Currency Manipulation Isn’t Among China’s Trade Sins. Jason Furman, October 15, 2018, Opinion, “The Trump administration is railing against Chinese currency manipulation without any regard for the yuan’s actual ups and downs. Yes, the numbers superficially back Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s warnings…” Link