The Role of Policy in Achieving Shared, Sustainable Economic Prosperity

Peaceful Coexistence 2.0. Dani Rodrik, April 10, 2019, Opinion, “Today’s Sino-American impasse is rooted in “hyper-globalism,” under which countries must open their economies to foreign companies, regardless of the consequences for their growth strategies or social models. But a global trade regime that cannot accommodate the world’s largest trading economy is a regime in urgent need of repair.” Link

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are missing a trick over trade. Jeffrey Frankel, March 22, 2019, Opinion, “President Donald Trump has postponed until at least April the supposed deadline for concluding the United States’ trade negotiations with China. A good outcome for both sides would be reached if China agreed to protect property rights better and reduce the state’s role in its economy; the US agreed to strengthen national saving and public investment; and both sides agreed to reverse their recent tariff increases. Unfortunately, this is not the deal that is likely to materialise.” Link

Chinese slowdown impact: Here’s what experts have to say. Kenneth Rogoff, March 8, 2019, Video, “The Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, China’s second most powerful man, next to Xi Jinping, this week warned his country’s highest lawmaking body that the country will face a more complicated environment and grave risks and challenges. Addressing the National People’s Congress, he set the country’s economic growth at 6 to 6.5 percent this year, just a shade lower than the 6.6 percent it achieved in 2018. He also promised lower taxes and fewer burdens on the private sector. So, should the world read this warning as an indication of deeper troubles for the Chinese economy or should one be confident that China can deliver a 6 percent plus growth this year? And what does a slightly slowing China mean to the world economy?” Link

Will the US Capitulate to China? Martin Feldstein, February 25, 2019, Opinion, “The most important problem that a bilateral deal between the United States and China needs to resolve is Chinese theft of US firms’ technology. Unless the Chinese agree to stop stealing technology, and the two sides devise a way to enforce that agreement, the US will not have achieved anything useful from Trump’s tariffs.” Link

China’s economy shows signs of slowdown, Harvard economist says. Kenneth Rogoff, February 25, 2019, Video, “The U.S. economy is doing “pretty well” right now, but Harvard University Economics Professor Kenneth Rogoff says the rest of the world, especially China, has problems. “There’s a slow patch in the global economy — I think China’s more than a slow patch,” he said during an interview on FOX Business’ “Mornings with Maria” on Monday. “It may have a soft landing, but it will be onto a downward slope. Centralizing power doesn’t work in trying to have a productive economy.”” Link

Dollar Dominance in Trade: Facts and Implications. Gita Gopinath, 2019, Opinion, “It is an honor to give the EXIM Bank of India’s 33rd Commencement Day Lecture. I would like to especially thank the Managing Director, Mr. David Rasquinha, for inviting me to speak at this special event.  Given that this is the EXIM Bank lecture it feels appropriate to talk about international trade. The remarkable growth in international trade and finance over the last four decades has changed economics and politics. The global financial crisis over the last decade has challenged several of the existing paradigms in economics. In my lecture today I will speak about one such long-standing paradigm in international economics, the so-called “Mundell-Fleming paradigm,”and the recent evidence that questions the general validity of this framework. This new evidence arises from work I have done over the last decade with co-authors that has led us to push for a new paradigm that we call the “Dominant Currency Paradigm.”” Link

No trade deal can dictate our relationship with China. Lawrence Summers, February 4, 2019, Opinion, “Lawrence Summers is a professor at and past president of Harvard University. He was treasury secretary from 1999 to 2001 and an economic adviser to President Barack Obama from 2009 through 2010. As the United States and China continue to joust over trade and technology, the U.S. policy debate contrasts two views of the primary problem.” Link

There Is No Sino-American Trade War. Martin Feldstein, January 29, 2019, Opinion, “Chinese negotiators recently offered to buy enough American products to reduce the bilateral trade deficit to zero by 2024. Why, then, have US negotiators rejected that as a way to end the dispute?” Link

Harvard’s Rogoff explains why China has become a ‘problem place’. Kenneth Rogoff, January 22, 2019, Video, “Kenneth Rogoff, public policy and economics professor at Harvard, thinks China is becoming a real problem. “If we want to talk about a problem place, it’s China. It’s clearly China,” Rogoff told Yahoo Finance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “There’s a slowdown going on in China that’s not demand driven. It’s a slowdown coming from the fact that they’re having a productivity slowdown.” ” Link

Trump’s Trade Game. Dani Rodrik, January 16, 2019, Opinion, “In 2018, US President Donald Trump finally followed through on his “America first” trade strategy. Yet it is already clear that his policies will have little impact on trade growth, and even less effect on China’s behavior.” Link