Found 3 article(s) for author 'stock prices'

Stock market could drop by a third

Stock market could drop by a third. Martin Feldstein, February 5, 2018, Video, “A prominent Harvard economist is warning that the U.S. stock market, which on Monday extended Friday’s big drop — is set for a drop of as much as a third of its current value, an outlook that would entail the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling to approximately 16,000 from its current lofty level.Link

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Company Stock Price Reactions to the 2016 Election Shock: Trump, Taxes, and Trade

Company Stock Price Reactions to the 2016 Election Shock: Trump, Taxes, and Trade. Richard Zeckhauser, August 17, 2017, Paper, “Donald Trump’s surprise election shifted expectations: corporate taxes would be lower and trade policies more restrictive. Relative stock prices responded appropriately. High-tax firms and those with large deferred tax liabilities (DTLs) gained; those with significant deferred tax assets from net operating loss carryforwards (NOL DTAs) lost. Domestically focused companies fared better than internationally oriented firms. A price contribution analysis shows that easily assessed consequences (DTLs, NOL DTAs, tax rates) were priced faster than more complex issues (net DTLs, foreign exposure). In sum, the analysis demonstrates that expectations about tax rates greatly impact firm values.Link

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Bubbles for Fama

Bubbles for Fama. Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer, November 2016, Paper, “We evaluate Eugene Fama’s claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on US industry returns 1926-2014 and international sector returns 1986-2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio does not, on average, predict unusually low returns going forward; (2) such sharp price increases do predict a substantially heightened probability of a crash; (3) attributes of the price run-up, including volatility, issuance, book-to-market ratio, market P/E ratio and the price path of the run-up can all help forecast an eventual crash; and (4) some of these characteristics can help investors earn superior returns by timing the bubble. Results hold similarly in US and international samples.Link

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