Found 11 article(s) for author 'Sectular Stagnation'

On falling neutral real rates, fiscal policy, and the risk of secular stagnation

On falling neutral real rates, fiscal policy, and the risk of secular stagnation. Lawrence Summers, March 7, 2019, Paper, “This paper demonstrates that neutral real interest rates would have declined by far more than what has been observed in the industrial world and would in all likelihood be significantly negative but for offsetting fiscal policies over the last generation. We start by arguing that neutral real interest rates are best estimated for the block of all industrial economies given capital mobility between them and relatively limited fluctuations in their collective current account. We show, using standard econometric procedures and looking at direct market indicators of prospective real rates, that neutral real interest rates have declined by at least 300 basis points over the last generation. We argue that these secular movements are in larger part a reflection of changes in saving and investment propensities rather than the safety and liquidity properties of Treasury instruments.Link

Tags: , , ,

Final Thoughts on Secular Stagnation

Final Thoughts on Secular Stagnation. Lawrence Summers, September 6, 2018, Opinion, “Too little was done in the aftermath of the financial crisis a decade ago to stimulate aggregate demand, which would be boosted by a more equal income distribution. And substantially stronger financial regulation than was in place before 2008 needs to be adopted to minimize the risks of future crises.Link

Tags: , , , , ,

Secular Stagnation and Macroeconomic Policy

Secular Stagnation and Macroeconomic Policy. Lawrence Summers, June 2018, Paper, “Secular stagnation theory has developed substantially recently and offers substantial insights that policymakers have yet to fully internalize. This paper reviews the considerations that led me to revive the secular stagnation idea, summarizes the theory as I understand it today, and argues that events since I started advocating the secular stagnation view have tended to confirm its predictions and reject those of its critics. It addresses the various objections, both theoretical and empirical, that have been put forward to the secular stagnation idea, and argues that if secular stagnation is a central macroeconomic issue, much of the conventional wisdom regarding macroeconomic policy needs to be rethought. Contrary to current orthodoxy, monetary policies may be able to have lasting impacts on levels of output but not to determine rates of inflation. Fiscal policies may be essential for assuring full employment and financial stability. Increases in government indebtedness may contribute to financial stability.Link

Tags: , , ,

The Fed Shouldn’t Expect People to Trust its Current Approach to the Economy

The Fed Shouldn’t Expect People to Trust its Current Approach to the Economy. Lawrence Summers, August 29, 2016, Opinion, “I had high hopes for the Federal Reserve’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo. The conference was billed as a forum that would look at new approaches to the conduct of monetary policy — something that I have been urging as necessary, given secular stagnation risks and the sharp decline in the apparent neutral rate of interest. And Chair Janet Yellen’s speech in a relatively academic setting provided an opportunity to signal that the Fed recognized that new realities required new approaches.Link

Tags: , , , ,

Secular Stagnation and Monetary Policy

Secular Stagnation and Monetary Policy. Lawrence Summers, 2016, Paper. “I have been engaged in thinking, writing, provoking, and analyzing around the issue of secular stagnation: the issue of protracted sluggish growth, why it seems to be our experience, and what should be done about it.1 This paper summarizes my current thinking on those topics and reflects on the important limits monetary policy experiences in dealing with secular stagnation.Link

Tags: , , ,

A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation

A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation. Lawrence Summers, June 2016, Paper, “Conditions of secular stagnation – low interest rates, below target inflation, and sluggish output growth – characterize much of the global economy. We consider an overlapping generations, open economy model of secular stagnation, and examine the effect of capital flows on the transmission of stagnation. In a world with a low natural rate of interest, greater capital integration transmits recessions across countries as opposed to lower interest rates. In a global secular stagnation, expansionary fiscal policy carries positive spillovers implying gains from coordination, and fiscal policy is self-financing. Expansionary monetary policy, by contrast, is beggar-thy-neighbor with output gains in one country coming at the expense of the other. Similarly, we find that competitiveness policies including structural labor market reforms or neomercantilist trade policies are also beggar-thy-neighbor in a global secular stagnation.” Link

Tags: , ,

Secular Stagnation in the Open Economy

Secular Stagnation in the Open Economy. Lawrence Summers, April 2016, Paper. “Conditions of secular stagnation – low interest rates, below target inflation, and sluggish output growth – now characterize much of the global economy. We consider a simple two-country textbook model to examine how capital markets transmit secular stagnation and to study policy externalities across countries. We find capital flows transmit recessions in a world with low interest rates and that policies that trigger current account surpluses are beggar-thy-neighbor. Monetary expansion cannot eliminate a secular stagnation and may have beggar-thy-neighbor effects, while sufficiently large fiscal interventions can eliminate a secular stagnation and carry positive externalities.Link

Tags: , , , , ,

Larry Summers: The prospect of Donald Trump being president is the gravest threat to America

Larry Summers: The prospect of Donald Trump being president is the gravest threat to America, April 14, 2016, Video. “Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers spoke at the International Monetary Fund on Wednesday, warning against austerity measures amid a tepid economy.  Yahoo Finance sat down with him to get little more color on the economy and to find out what keeps him up most at night.  “I think the prospect of Donald Trump being President would be the gravest threat to our prosperity, our security, and our freedom in my adult lifetime,” Summers said. “That’s the thing I would worry most about.”Link

Tags: , , , , ,