Found 23 article(s) for author 'Robert Barro'

Trump Is Slowing US Economic Growth

Trump Is Slowing US Economic Growth. Robert Barro, June 4, 2019, Opinion, “The current state of US macroeconomic policymaking across four key areas does not bode well. Although the 2017 tax legislation has done its job in promoting faster growth, rising trade tensions, persistent regulatory burdens, and a lack of investment in infrastructure all threaten to limit the US economy’s potential.Link

Tags: , , , ,

My Best Growth Forecast Ever

My Best Growth Forecast Ever. Robert Barro, April 29, 2019, Opinion, “The Trump administration’s tax reform of 2017, which took effect in 2018, was viewed prospectively, and now retrospectively, as a contributor to US economic growth. But there was – and remains – a great deal of controversy over the size of the macroeconomic effects of the tax changes.Link

Tags: , ,

Disaster Probability and Options-Pricing with Disaster Risk

Disaster Probability and Options-Pricing with Disaster Risk. Robert Barro, April 2019, Paper, “We derive a new option-pricing formula from recursive preference and estimate disaster probability from option prices. The new options-pricing formula applies to far-out-of-the money put options on the stock market when disaster risk dominates, the size distribution of disasters follows a power law, and the economy has a representative agent with Epstein-Zin utility. The formula conforms with data on put-options prices for the U.S. S&P index from 1983 to 2018 and for analogous indices for other countries starting in the mid-1990s. The estimated disaster probability, inferred from monthly fixed effects, is highly correlated across countries and peaks during the financial crisis of 2008-09. The estimated disaster probability forecasts downside risk in the economy. Using quantile regressions, we find that the disaster probability forecasts growth vulnerabilities, defined GDP and Industrial Production growth at the lowest decile.Link

Tags: , , ,

Interview with Harvard Professor Robert Barro

Interview with Harvard Professor Robert Barro. Robert Barro, September 1, 2018, Opinion, “Robert Barro is a highly influential economist and has written extensively about macroeconomics. He is the Paul M. Warburg Professor of Economics at Harvard University, a senior fellow at Stanford University and co-editor of the Quarterly Journal of Economic. Barro shares a free market view of the current economic climate during an in-depth conversation with Filthy Lucre.Link

Tags: , , , ,

The macroeconomic effects of the 2017 tax reform

The macroeconomic effects of the 2017 tax reform. Robert Barro, Jason Furman, March 4, 2018, Paper, “In December 2017, Congress enacted the most sweeping set of tax changes in a generation, lowering statutory tax rates for individuals and businesses and altering the tax base—in some cases to remove distortionary tax preferences and in some cases to create new ones. The law generated substantial debate on many issues, notably about its long-term impact on the capital-labor ratio, GDP per worker, real wages and, in the transition to the new steady state, economic growth. One of us (Robert) joined a group of economists (Wall Street Journal, November 26, 2017) to argue that the corporate-tax part of the tax reform would have substantially positive long-term effects in all of these dimensions. Another of us (Jason) was a consistent critic of the law.Link

Tags: , , , ,

The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits

The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits. Robert Barro, 2017, Book Chapter, “In recent years there has been a lot of discussion about US budget deficits. Many economists and other observers have viewed these deficits as harmful to the US and world economies. The supposed harmful effects include high real interest rates, low saving, low rates of economic growth, large currentaccount deficits in the United States and other countries with large budget deficits, and either a high or low dollar (depending apparently on the time period).” (Reprint from 1989) Link

Tags: , ,

The Reasons Behind the Obama Non-Recovery

The Reasons Behind the Obama Non-Recovery. Robert Barro, September 20, 2016, Opinion, “The Obama administration and some economists argue that the recovery since the Great Recession ended in 2009 has been unusually weak because of the recession’s severity and the fact that it was accompanied by a major financial crisis. Yet in a recent study of economic downturns in the U.S. and elsewhere since 1870, economist Tao Jin and I found that historically the opposite has been true. Empirically, the growth rate during a recovery relates positively to the magnitude of decline during the downturn.Link

Tags: , , , , ,

Economic Growth and Convergence, Applied to China

Economic Growth and Convergence, Applied to China. Robert Barro, September/October 2016, Paper, “From the perspective of conditional convergence, China’s GDP growth rate since 1990 has been surprisingly high. However, China cannot deviate forever from the global historical experience, and the per capita growth rate is likely to fall soon from around 8 percent per year to a range of 3-4 percent. China can be viewed as a middle-income convergence success story, grouped with Costa Rica, Indonesia, Peru, Thailand and Uruguay. Upper-income convergence successes (toward which China is likely heading) include Chile, Hong Kong, Ireland, Malaysia, Poland, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.Link

Tags: , , ,

China’s Growth Prospects

China’s Growth Prospects. Robert Barro, 2016, Paper. “China’s diminished growth prospects are in the news and seem to spell bad news for just about everybody. This article assesses the evidence, arguing that China¡¯s economic growth will be much slower from now on, reducing international trade. Perhaps the biggest challenge for China will be future political tensions in reconciling economic dreams with economic realities.Link

Tags: , ,