Found 21 article(s) for author 'Recession'

The US Recovery Turns Ten

The US Recovery Turns Ten. Jeffrey Frankel, June 14, 2019, Opinion, “The best explanation for the current ten-year US economic expansion – tied for the longest since 1854 – is disappointingly simple: the Great Recession was the worst downturn since the 1930s. And if the dates of American business cycles were determined by the rule that most other countries apply, the current expansion would be far from beating the record.Link

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There Is “Significant Risk” Of Recession

There Is “Significant Risk” Of Recession. Lawrence Summers, January 10, 2019, Video, “There is “significant risk” of a recession in the next two years, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers repeated yesterday on Bloomberg TV. Summers, now an economist at Harvard University, focused his comments on China’s economy, which he warned was “seeing as difficult a moment… as any they’ve had in the last 10 or 20 years.” Link

 

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We must prepare now for the likelihood of a recession

We must prepare now for the likelihood of a recession. Lawrence Summers, January 7, 2019, Opinion, “When people are fundamentally healthy, they do not yet know what will cause their death. An economic recovery is healthy if it is not clear what will cause the next recession. By this standard, the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, although disappointingly slow, has been healthy for most of the last decade.Link

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Europe in ‘more trouble’ than the U.S. 10 years after great recession

Europe in ‘more trouble’ than the U.S. 10 years after great recession. Andrei Shleifer, December 4, 2018, Video, “There are signs of fragility in the economy, but Harvard Professor Andrei Shleifer the U.S. is better off today than it was in 2008. He spoke with Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous about his new book, ‘A Crisis of Beliefs: Investor Psychology and Financial Fragility’Link

 

 

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Raise Rates Today to Fight a Recession Tomorrow

Raise Rates Today to Fight a Recession Tomorrow. Martin Feldstein, November 26, 2018, Opinion, “Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will lay out a vision Wednesday for the course the Fed will steer through coming economic turbulence. So far, the Fed’s governors have appeared committed to their plan to continue raising interest rates, which they began in late 2015 after nearly a decade of holding them near zero. The federal-funds rate has jumped from 0.3% in January 2016 to 2.2% today, and the median forecast of the Federal Open Market Committee is that it will reach 3.4% by the end of 2021.Link

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50 percent chance of a US recession by 2020

50 percent chance of a US recession by 2020. Lawrence Summers, November 15, 2018, Video, “Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has put the chances of a U.S. recession at 50 percent within the next two years. The economist told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche on Thursday that a slowdown in growth was a “near certainty” before adding “the recession risk is nearly 50 percent over the next two years, maybe slightly less.Link

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The curiously varied impact of recessions on political stability: New evidence

The curiously varied impact of recessions on political stability: New evidence. Nathan Nunn, September 29, 2018, “Cultural values and beliefs have an impact on social and economic development, but the interplay between culture and political institutions is still not well understood. This column examines the effect of trust on political stability in democratic and non-democratic regimes, specifically in the face of severe economic downturns. It finds that democratic regimes with high levels of trust are much less likely to experience leader turnover than low-trust countries, while there is no effect among non-democracies, and that countries with higher levels of trust experience faster economic growth in the years immediately following a recession.Link

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Another Recession Is Looming

Another Recession Is Looming. Martin Feldstein, September 27, 2018, Opinion, “Ten years after the Great Recession’s onset, another long, deep downturn may soon roil the U.S. economy. The high level of asset prices today mirrors the earlier trend in house prices that preceded the 2008 crash; both mispricings reflect long periods of very low real interest rates caused by Federal Reserve policy. Now that interest rates are rising, equity prices will fall, dragging down household wealth, consumer spending and economic activity.Link

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US will lack fiscal space to respond when next recession comes

US will lack fiscal space to respond when next recession comes. Jeffrey Frankel, August 28, 2018, Opinion, “The US economy is doing well. But the next recession – and there is always another recession – could be very bad. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that GDP growth in the second quarter of 2018 reached 4.1% – the highest since the 4.9% achieved under President Barack Obama in 2014. Another year of growth will match the record 10-year expansion of the 1990s. Add to that low unemployment and things are looking good.Link

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