Found 10 article(s) for author 'Markets'

Using prediction markets to predict the outcomes in DARPA’s Next Generation Social Science program

Using prediction markets to predict the outcomes in DARPA’s Next Generation Social Science program. Yiling Chen, 2020, Paper, “There is evidence that prediction markets are useful tools to aggregate information about researchers’ beliefs about scientific results including forecasting the outcome of replications. In this study, we use prediction markets to forecast the results of novel experimental designs that test established theories. We will set up prediction markets for hypotheses tested in DARPA’s Next Generation Social Science (NGS2) program. We will invite researchers to bet on whether 22 hypotheses will be supported or not. We define support as a test result in the same direction as the hypothesized, with a Bayes Factor of at least 10 (i.e. a likelihood of the observed data being consistent with the tested hypothesis that is at least 10 times greater compared to the null hypothesis). In addition to betting on this binary outcome, we will ask participants to bet on the expected effect size (in Cohen’s d) for each hypothesis. We recruit at least 50 participants that sign up to participate in these markets. Participants will also complete a survey on both the binary result and the effect size. Our goals are to elicit peer beliefs about the outcomes of the hypotheses tested in NGS2, and to test if these peer beliefs can predict the outcomes of novel experimental designs rather than replications. This study will increase our knowledge about the predictability of scientific results and the dynamics of hypothesis testing.Link

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The Dilemma of Gender Equality: How Labor Market Regulation Divides Women by Class

The Dilemma of Gender Equality: How Labor Market Regulation Divides Women by Class. Torben Iversen, 2019, Paper, “Women shoulder a heavier burden of family work than men in modern society, preventing them from matching male success in the external labor market. Limiting working hours is a plausible way to level the playing field by creating the possibility of less gendered roles for both sexes. But why then are heavily regulated European labor markets associated with a smaller share of women in top management positions compared with liberal market economies such as in the United States? We explain this puzzle with reference to the difficulty of ambitious women to signal their commitment to high-powered careers in regulated markets.Link

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Can Free Markets Revive Brazil?

Can Free Markets Revive Brazil? Lawrence Summers, April 25, 2019, Audio, “Will a dose of free-market policies — from a populist politician, no less — finally bring Latin America’s biggest economy back to life? On this week’s episode of Stephanomics, Bruce Douglas visits the region’s busiest port to get a taste of what’s ailing Brazil — and the possible cure.  Host Stephanie Flanders also brings you the second part of her interview with Harvard University economist Larry Summers — the former U.S. Treasury secretary and Obama adviser — with his comments on Brazil’s economy and the new thinking on progressive U.S. fiscal policy. Finally, Stephanie talks with editor Catarina Saraiva about Bloomberg’s dreaded Misery Index.Link

 

 

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Humanitarian Markets

Humanitarian Markets. Ricardo Hausmann, March 25, 2019, Opinion, “The role of humanitarian assistance is like that of a car battery: it gets the cylinders moving until the sequence of internal explosions in the engine recharges the battery and makes the process self-sustaining. That task is made easier by using, rather than replacing, markets.Link

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Risks to the Global Economy in 2019

Risks to the Global Economy in 2019. Kenneth Rogoff, January 11, 2019, Opinion, “Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change. They will include a growth recession in China, a rise in global long-term real interest rates, and a crescendo of populist economic policies.Link

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Prices vs. Quantities Across Jurisdictions

Prices vs. Quantities Across Jurisdictions. Martin Weitzman, October 23, 2018, Paper, “We extend the standard ‘prices vs. quantities’ framework for pollution control to cover multiple heterogeneous jurisdictions interacting strategically with each other. When multi-jurisdictional externalities are present and the uncertainties among jurisdictions…Link

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Debunking myth: economic values in the Arab World through the prism of opinion polls

Debunking myth: economic values in the Arab World through the prism of opinion polls. Ishac Diwan, June 2018, Paper, “Using World Value Survey opinion poll data, we empirically characterize the economic values and norms held by individuals in the Arab world, in comparison to values held in the rest of the world. We find that, contrary to some common beliefs, there are many values that predispose citizens of Arab countries to be part of a market economy, including a high level of work ethics, comfort with competition and the work of markets, and a high level of economic motivation.Link

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Cloaked Trading

Cloaked Trading. Lauren Cohen, Christopher Malloy, January 17, 2017, Paper, “Using a novel, proprietary database of micro-level trading activities by asset managers, we show strong evidence of asset managers engaging in strategic trading in order to “cloak” their most valuable trades. This takes the form, for instance, of a manager who sells her entire position of Microsoft on March 30, and then repurchases to re-establish the same position on April 1. This manager will economically be holding the same position throughout, yet without having to publicly signal this position. These cloaked trades earn an abnormal return of 370 basis points in the following month, or over 36% per year.Link

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Selection and Market Reallocation: Productivity Gains from Multinational Production

Selection and Market Reallocation: Productivity Gains from Multinational Production, Laura Alfaro, September 2014 , Paper, “Quantifying the productivity gains from multinational production has been a vital topic of economic research. Positive productivity gains are often attributed to within-firm productivity improvements due to positive spillovers from multinational to domestic firms. An alternative, less emphasized explanation is between-firm selection and market reallocation, whereby competition from multinationals leads to factor reallocation andthe survival of only the most productive domestic firms…” Link

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Law and the Economy of Early America: Markets, Institutions of Exchange, and Labor

Law and the Economy of Early America: Markets, Institutions of Exchange, and Labor. Christine A. Desan, 2013, Book Chapter. “This chapter contains sections titled: Progress Narratives and Their Radical Critique in Law, Consumption and Commodity Studies, Institutions of Exchange, The Ambiguous Place of Labor…” May require purchase or user account. Link Verified October 11, 2014

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