Found 13 article(s) for author 'Macroeconomics'

Long-Term Firm Growth: An Empirical Analysis of US Manufacturers 1959-2015

Long-Term Firm Growth: An Empirical Analysis of US Manufacturers 1959-2015. Gary Pisano, May 16, 2019, Paper, “Firm growth is an essential feature of market economies, shaping together macroeconomic performance and the evolution of industry structures. As a potential indicator of organizational “fitness” within a competitive environment, firm growth is also a central concern to both the practice and theory of business strategy. Despite both its theoretical and practical importance, though, growth remains a poorly understood property of firms. While previous studies have documented the highly skewed nature of firm growth rates, we know far less about the persistence of growth rates over long-periods of time. For instance, do “fast growers” tend to maintain their relative growth rates advantages over long-periods or is superior growth a transitory phenomenon? Is, as predicted by evolutionary and capability based theories of the firm, the process of firm growth path-dependent or is it more akin to a random walk? The answers to these questions are central to building a robust theory of firm growth.Link

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Trade Invoicing, Bank Funding, and Central Bank Reserve Holdings

Trade Invoicing, Bank Funding, and Central Bank Reserve Holdings. Gita Gopinath, Jeremy Stein, May 2018, Paper, “We develop a model that shows how the currency denomination of a country’s imports influences the funding structure of its banking system, and in turn, the currency composition of its central bank’s reserve holdings. The link between the dollar’s role in bank funding and its role as a central bank reserve currency is stronger when the country’s fiscal capacity is limited, and when exchange rates are volatile. In the data, there is a pronounced cross-country relationship between the fraction of imports that are dollar invoiced, and the fraction of central-bank foreign-exchange reserves that are held in dollars.Link

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A Measure of Risk Appetite for the Macroeconomy

A Measure of Risk Appetite for the Macroeconomy. Emil Siriwardane, Adi Sunderam, March 2018, Paper, “We document a strong and robust positive relationship between the one-year real rate and the contemporaneous valuation of volatile stocks, which we contend measures the economy’s risk appetite. Our novel proxy for risk appetite explains 41% of the variation in the real rate since 1970, while the valuation of the aggregate stock market explains just 1%. In addition, the real rate forecasts returns on volatile stocks, confirming our interpretation that changes in risk appetite drive the real rate. Increases in our measure of risk appetite are followed by a boom in investment and output.Link

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Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations

Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations. Andrei Shleifer, December 2017, Paper, “We examine the rationality of individual and consensus professional forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), which focuses on the predictability of forecast errors from earlier forecast revisions. We document two principal findings: at the individual level, forecasters typically over-react to information, while consensus forecasts exhibit under-reaction. To reconcile these findings, we combine the diagnostic expectations model of belief formation from Bordalo, Gennaioli, and Shleifer (2018) with Woodford’s (2003) noisy information model of belief aggregation.Link

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Larry Summers on Macroeconomics, Mentorship, and Avoiding Complacency | Conversations with Tyler

Larry Summers on Macroeconomics, Mentorship, and Avoiding Complacency: Conversations with Tyler. Lawrence Summers, September 2017, Video, “The economist, President Emeritus at Harvard University, and former Treasury Secretary joins Tyler to discuss innovation in higher education, Herman Melville, the Fed, Mexico, Russia, China, the Larry Summers production function, philanthropy and Larry’s table tennis adventure in the summer Jewish Olympics.Link

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Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics

Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics. James Stock, June 8, 2017, Paper, “An exciting development in empirical macroeconometrics is the increasing use of external sources of as-if randomness to identify the dynamic causal effects of macroeconomic shocks. This approach – the use of external instruments – is the dynamic, macroeconometric counterpart of the highly successful strategy in microeconometrics of using external as-if randomness to provide instruments that identify causal effects. This lecture provides conditions on instruments and control variables under which external instrument methods produce valid inference on dynamic causal effects, that is, structural impulse response function; these conditions can help guide the search for valid instruments in applications.Link

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Progress and Confusion: The State of Macroeconomic Policy

Progress and Confusion: The State of Macroeconomic Policy. Kenneth Rogoff, Lawrence Summers, 2016, Book, “What will economic policy look like once the global financial crisis is finally over? Will it resume the pre-crisis consensus, or will it be forced to contend with a post-crisis “new normal”? Have we made progress in addressing these issues, or does confusion remain? In April of 2015, the International Monetary Fund gathered leading economists, both academics and policymakers, to address the shape of future macroeconomic policy. This book is the result, with prominent figures—including Ben Bernanke, Lawrence Summers, and Paul Volcker—offering essays that address topics that range from the measurement of systemic risk to foreign exchange intervention.Link

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Can analysts assess fundamental risk and valuation uncertainty? An empirical analysis of scenario-based value estimates

Can analysts assess fundamental risk and valuation uncertainty? An empirical analysis of scenario-based value estimates. Suraj Srinivasan, September 2016, Paper, “We use a data set of sell-side analysts’ scenario-based equity valuation estimates to examine whether analysts can assess the state-contingent risk surrounding a firm’s fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts’ scenario-based valuations captures the riskiness of operations and predicts the absolute magnitude of long-run valuation errors and future changes in firm fundamentals. We also show that analysts’ assessment of fundamental risk and its predictive ability systematically improved after the financial crisis, consistent with the macroeconomic shock raising analysts’ awareness of firms’ systematic risk exposures.Link

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Globalization and Growth

Globalization and Growth. Elhanan Helpman, May 2015, Paper. “How does globalization affect economic growth? We discuss mechanisms that link international integration to the incentives for knowledge accumulation and the efficacy of that process. First, integration facilitates the flow of knowledge across national borders. Second, integration affords innovators a larger potential market even as it subjects them to additional competition from foreign rivals. Third, integration encourages specialization according to comparative advantage. Finally, integration affects the incentives for technological diffusion. Taken together...” Link

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Demand Side Secular Stagnation

Demand Side Secular Stagnation. Lawrence Summers, May 2015, Paper. “The experience of first Japan and now Europe and the USA suggests that Hansen’s concept of secular stagnation is highly relevant. Recovery has been anemic and follows a generation of financially unsustainable and often lackluster growth. Investment demand has declined while the supply of saving has increased, leaving the economy vulnerable to liquidity traps. Although some US indicators have improved, forward real rates have declined sharply, European prospects remain muddled, and the zero-bound will likely constrain again during the next recession...” Link

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