Found 164 article(s) for author 'Kenneth Rogoff'

As Populists Rise, Latin America’s Economies Will Fall

As Populists Rise, Latin America’s Economies Will Fall. Kenneth Rogoff, June 5, 2019, Opinion, “In the space of a year, populists with autocratic tendencies have taken office in Mexico and Brazil, and laid the groundwork to return to power in Argentina. With the three largest economies in Latin America destined for further mismanagement, the prospects for growth in the region are dim.Link

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How Central-Bank Independence Dies

How Central-Bank Independence Dies. Kenneth Rogoff, May 31, 2019, Opinion, “Since the world’s major central banks came to the global economy’s rescue in 2008, they have had more and more tasks foisted upon them, even as some politicians question their expanded role and others seek to undermine their policymaking autonomy. To escape this dilemma, monetary authorities must get back to doing what they do best.Link

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What a wise US-China trade deal looks like? Full of trade-offs

What a wise US-China trade deal looks like? Full of trade-offs. Kenneth Rogoff, May 8, 2019, Opinion, “Will a possibly imminent US-China trade agreement exacerbate global business cycles or even plant the seeds of the next Asian financial crisis? If the eventual agreement – assuming there is one – forces China to hew indefinitely to its outmoded, overly rigid exchange-rate regime, then the answer may be yes.Link

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An economist explains what happens if there’s another financial crisis

An economist explains what happens if there’s another financial crisis. Kenneth Rogoff, April 30, 2019, Opinion, “The financial crisis of 2008 may have started in the US banking sector but it went on to unleash the deepest global recession since the Great Depression. The year 2009 became the first on record where global GDP contracted in real terms and the lost growth resulting from the crisis and ensuing recession has been estimated at over $10 trillion (more than one-sixth of global GDP in 2008).” Link

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The Case for Implementing Effective Negative Interest Rate Policy

The Case for Implementing Effective Negative Interest Rate Policy. Kenneth Rogoff, April 24, 2019, Paper, “This paper explores the case for gradually instituting the changes necessary to implement unconstrained negative interest rate policy as a long-term solution to the zero bound on interest rates (or more precisely the near zero effective lower bound.) We shall argue that if negative interest rate policy can be implemented, it would be by far the most elegant and stable long-term solution to the severe limits on monetary tools that have emerged since the financial crisis. Admittedly, the question of how to resuscitate monetary policy is of more immediate relevance in Europe and Japan, where interest rates are already at the effective zero lower bound (in many cases mildly negative) a decade after the global financial crisis, and more than two decades after Japan’s financial crisis. But even the United States is likely to face severe constraints in the event of another financial crisis, possibly even in a deep recession.Link

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Chinese slowdown impact: Here’s what experts have to say

Chinese slowdown impact: Here’s what experts have to say. Kenneth Rogoff, March 8, 2019, Video, “The Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, China’s second most powerful man, next to Xi Jinping, this week warned his country’s highest lawmaking body that the country will face a more complicated environment and grave risks and challenges. Addressing the National People’s Congress, he set the country’s economic growth at 6 to 6.5 percent this year, just a shade lower than the 6.6 percent it achieved in 2018. He also promised lower taxes and fewer burdens on the private sector. So, should the world read this warning as an indication of deeper troubles for the Chinese economy or should one be confident that China can deliver a 6 percent plus growth this year? And what does a slightly slowing China mean to the world economy?Link

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Modern Monetary Nonsense

Modern Monetary Nonsense. Kenneth Rogoff, March 4, 2019, Opinion, “A number of leading progressive US politicians advocate using the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet to fund expansive new government programs. Although their arguments have a grain of truth, they also rest on some fundamental misconceptions, and could have unpredictable and potentially serious consequences.Link

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