Found 123 article(s) for author 'Kenneth Rogoff'

Revisiting Speculative Hyperinflations in Monetary Models: A Response to Cochrane

Revisiting Speculative Hyperinflations in Monetary Models: A Response to Cochrane. Kenneth Rogoff, November 9, 2017, Paper, “This paper responds to an appendix in Cochrane (2011) that characterizes as incorrect a central uniqueness result in Obstfeld and Rogoff (1983). Cochrane purports to show that, despite the existence of partial government backing of currency, there exist speculative pricebubble equilibria in which the price level goes to infinity and government money passes out of use, despite a money supply that itself is not increasing. Here we explain why our original result is, in fact, correct.Link

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US Fed chair’s biggest problem will be staying out of Trump’s shadow

US Fed chair’s biggest problem will be staying out of Trump’s shadow. Kenneth Rogoff, November 3, 2017, Opinion, “With the appointment of Jerome Powell as the next chair of the United States Federal Reserve, Donald Trump has made perhaps the most important single decision of his presidency. It is a sane and sober choice that heralds short-term continuity in Fed interest rate policy, and perhaps a simpler and cleaner approach to regulatory policy.Link

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Donald Trump’s Federal Reserve

Donald Trump’s Federal Reserve. Kenneth Rogoff, November 2, 2017, Opinion, “Jerome Powell, US President Donald Trump’s pick to succeed Janet Yellen as Fed Chair, will face some extraordinary challenges at the outset of his five-year term. But the greatest challenge of all will be to stay out of Trump’s shadow and uphold the Fed’s independence.Link

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Crypto-Fool’s Gold?

Crypto-Fool’s Gold? Kenneth Rogoff, October 9, 2017, Opinion, “The price of Bitcoin is up 600% over the past 12 months, and 1,600% in the past 24 months. But the long history of currency tells us that what the private sector innovates, the state eventually regulates and appropriates – and there is no reason to expect virtual currency to avoid a similar fate.Link

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Donald Trump’s 3% growth plan is only for the 1%

Donald Trump’s 3% growth plan is only for the 1%. Kenneth Rogoff, September 11, 2017, Opinion, “Donald Trump has boasted that his policies will produce sustained 3%-4% growth for many years to come. His prediction flies in the face of the judgment of many professional forecasters, including on Wall Street and at the Federal Reserve, who expect that the US will be lucky to achieve even 2% growth.Link

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Populist Trade Policies will not Protect Jobs Anywhere in the World

Populist Trade Policies will not Protect Jobs Anywhere in the World. Kenneth Rogoff, August 2, 2017, Opinion, “As US and European political leaders fret about the future of quality jobs, they would do well to look at the far bigger problems faced by developing Asia – problems that threaten to place massive downward pressure on global wages. In India, where per capita income is roughly a tenth that of the US, more than 10 million people a year are leaving the countryside and pouring into urban areas, and they often cannot find work even as chaiwalas, much less as computer programmers. The same angst that Americans and Europeans have about the future of jobs is an order of magnitude higher in Asia.Link

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Dealing with Monetary Paralysis at the Zero Bound

Dealing with Monetary Paralysis at the Zero Bound. Kenneth Rogoff, Summer 2017, Paper, “Recently, the key constraint for central banks is the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Central banks fear that if they push short-term policy interest rates too deeply negative, there will be a massive flight into paper currency. This paper asks whether, in a world where paper currency is becoming increasingly vestigial outside small transactions (at least in the legal, tax compliant economy), there might be relatively simple ways to finesse the zero bound without affecting how most ordinary people live. Surprisingly, this question gets little attention compared to the massive number of articles that take the zero bound as given and look for out-of-the-box solutions for dealing with it. In an inversion of the old joke, it is a bit as if the economics literature has insisted on positing ‘assume we don’t have a can opener,’ without considering the possibility that we might be able to devise one. It makes sense not to wait until the next financial crisis to develop plans.Link

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Central Bankers Should’ve Been More Aggressive

Central Bankers Should’ve Been More Aggressive. Kenneth Rogoff, July 20, 2017, Audio, “Kenneth Rogoff, a professor at Harvard University, says central bankers should’ve been more aggressive during the financial crisis and that India’s demonetization was done too quickly. Prior to that, Kathy Matsui, chief Japan equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Japan, says Japanese companies are strong. Robert Shiller, a professor at Yale University, says New York City housing is more affordable than people think. Finally, New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu says Washington’s stuck making the same mistakes in health care.Link

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