Found 361 article(s) for author 'Jobs and Unemployment'

Monitoring Real Activity in Real Time: The Weekly Economic Index

Monitoring Real Activity in Real Time: The Weekly Economic Index. James Stock, April 2020, Paper, “Economists are well-practiced at assessing real activity based on familiar aggregate time series, like the unemployment rate, industrial production, or GDP growth. However, these series represent monthly or quarterly averages of economic conditions, and are only available at a considerable lag, after the month or quarter ends. When the economy hits sudden headwinds, like the COVID-19 pandemic, conditions can evolve rapidly. How can we monitor the high-frequency evolution of the economy in “real time”?Link

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The Time to Worry About Debt Is After the Pandemic

The Time to Worry About Debt Is After the Pandemic. Jason Furman, April 2, 2020, Video, “Jason Furman, Harvard Kennedy School professor of the practice of the economy, discusses the build-up of U.S. debt from stimulus aimed at combating the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. He speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”Link

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Cognitive Biases: Mistakes or Missing Stakes?

Cognitive Biases: Mistakes or Missing Stakes? Benjamin Enke, Brian Hall, March 2020, Paper, “Despite decades of research on heuristics and biases, empirical evidence on the effect of large incentives – as present in relevant economic decisions – on cognitive biases is scant. This paper tests the effect of incentives on four widely documented biases: base rate neglect, anchoring, failure of contingent thinking, and intuitive reasoning in the Cognitive Reflection Test. In preregistered laboratory experiments with 1,236 college students in Nairobi, we implement three incentive levels: no incentives, standard lab payments, and very high incentives that increase the stakes by a factor of 100 to more than a monthly income. We find that cognitive effort as measured by response times increases by 40% with very high stakes. Performance, on the other hand, improves very mildly or not at all as incentives increase, with the largest improvements due to a reduced reliance on intuitions. In none of the tasks are very high stakes sufficient to debias participants, or come even close to doing so. These results contrast with expert predictions that forecast larger performance improvements.Link

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U.S. government should spend ‘whatever it takes’ to control virus

U.S. government should spend ‘whatever it takes’ to control virus. Lawrence Summers, March 26, 2020, Video, “Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers has deep experience in economic policy. On Wednesday, he was among a bipartisan group of economic experts urging U.S. officials to prioritize resolving the pandemic’s medical emergency before trying to rectify its economic fallout. Summers joins Judy Woodruff to discuss direct payments to Americans, funding hospitals and the need for consistent strategy.Link

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Former Obama chief economist on $2T stimulus bill: I’m not sure if it’s enough

Former Obama chief economist on $2T stimulus bill: I’m not sure if it’s enough. Jason Furman, March 25, 2020, Video, “Former Council of Economic Advisers Chair under Obama & Harvard Economics Professor Jason Furman joins Yahoo Finance’s Zack Guzman and Brian Cheung to discuss the $2T coronavirus stimulus proposal facing a vote in the Senate on Yahoo Finance.Link

 

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Evaluating COVID-19 Public Health Messaging in Italy: Self-Reported Compliance and Growing Mental Health Concerns

Evaluating COVID-19 Public Health Messaging in Italy: Self-Reported Compliance and Growing Mental Health Concerns. Jon Jachimowicz, Gary King, March 23, 2020, Paper, “The COVID-19 death-rate in Italy continues to climb, surpassing that in every other country. We implement one of the first nationally representative surveys about this unprecedented public health crisis and use it to evaluate the Italian government’ public health efforts and citizen responses. Findings: (1) Public health messaging is being heard.  Except for slightly lower compliance among young adults, ​all subgroups we studied understand how to keep themselves and others safe from the SARS-Cov-2 virus. Remarkably, even those who do ​not trust the government ​ , or​think the government has been untruthful ​ about the crisis believe the messaging and claim to be acting in accordance.(2)The quarantine is beginning to have serious negative effects on the population’s mental health. Policy Recommendations: ​Communications should move from explaining to citizens that they should stay at home to what they can do there. We need interventions that make staying following public health protocols more desirable, such as virtual social interactions, online social reading activities, classes, exercise routines, etc. — all designed to reduce the boredom of long term social isolation and to increase the attractiveness of following public health recommendations. Interventions like these will grow in importance as the crisis wears on around the world, and staying inside wears on people.Link

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For Now, Pay Workers to Stay Home

For Now, Pay Workers to Stay Home. Edward Glaeser, March 23, 2020, Opinion, “Desperate times need extreme measures—and only in the face of the new coronavirus does it make sense for the federal government to send money directly to every American. Cash payments are the most direct way to reduce the economic harm that lockdowns will inflict on the one-fifth of workers employed in vulnerable service industries.Link

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The economy and policy in the coronavirus crisis to date

The economy and policy in the coronavirus crisis to date. James Stock, Robert Barro, Jason Furman, Jeremy Stein, , Video, “This conversation took place during the Spring 2020 conference on the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. Participants included Daniel Lewis of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Jan Hatzius from Goldman Sachs, and Lucrezia Reichlin of the London Business School discussing the economic outlook in the face of COVID-19. Robert Barro of Harvard University and François Velde of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago discussed lessons learned from the Spanish Flu, and Jason Furman and Jeremy Stein, both from Harvard University, discussed potential policy responses. Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow and Harvard University Professor of Economics James Stock moderated the conversation.Link

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Declining worker power and American economic performance

Declining worker power and American economic performance. Lawrence Summers, March 18, 2020, Paper, “A decline in workers’ power, rather than an increase in corporations’ monopoly power, likely explains the co-existence of four significant trends in the U.S. economy since the early 1980s: a declining share of national income going to labor, increased market values of corporations, low average unemployment, and low inflation, says a paper to be discussed at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Conference March 19.Link

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