Found 99 article(s) for author 'Jeffrey Frankel'

Betting on the Tortoise in Japan

Betting on the Tortoise in Japan. Jeffrey Frankel, September 12, 2013, Opinion. “In April 2014, Japan’s consumption-tax rate is set to rise from 5% to 8% in an effort to address the long-term problem of high public debt. But will the resulting loss in purchasing power bring an end to the Japanese economy’s fragile recovery, as many fear? CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphThe question is reminiscent of April 1997. Larry Summers, who was then Deputy Secretary of the United States Treasury, repeatedly warned the Japanese government that if it proceeded with a scheduled consumption-tax hike, Japan’s economy would slide…” Link verified March 28, 2014

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One Recession or Many? Double-Dip Downturns in Europe

One Recession or Many? Double-Dip Downturns in Europe. Jeffrey Frankel, July 19, 2013, Opinion. “The recent release of a revised set of GDP statistics by Britain’s Office for National Statistics showed that growth had not quite, as previously thought, been negative for two consecutive quarters in the winter of 2011-12. The point, as it was reported, was that a UK recession (a second dip after the Great Recession of 2008-09) was now erased from the history books — and that the Conservative government would take a bit of satisfaction from this fact. But it should not. Similarly, in April of this year, Britain was reported to have narrowly escaped a second quarter of negative growth…” Link

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How Many European Recessions?

How Many European Recessions? Jeffrey Frankel, July 17, 2013, Opinion. “The release of revised GDP data by the United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics in late June seemed like an occasion for cheer, because growth had not quite been negative for two consecutive quarters in the winter of 2011-12, as previously thought. The point, as it was reported, is that a second UK recession following the global financial crisis in 2008 (a “double dip”) had now been erased from the history books, and that the Conservative government would take some satisfaction from this fact. But it should not. The right question is not whether there have been…” Link verified March 28, 2014

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Does Debt Matter?

Does Debt Matter? Jeffrey Frankel, July 4, 2013, Opinion. ““Does Debt Matter?” is the question posed by The International Economy to 20 commentators: “The recent scrutiny of the popularized version of the Rogoff-Reinhart thesis (that growth plummets when debt exceeds 90 percent of GDP) makes clear there are no simple formulas for determining the risks in the level of a nation’s debt. …Can a realistic guide be fashioned for determining whether a nation’s debt has reached a danger zone? Or are countries from here on expected to pursue fiscal reforms only if and when a crisis sets in?” My response is yes, debt matters. I don’t think I know of anyone who believes that a high level of debt is without …” Link

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Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?

Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help? Jeffrey Frankel, June 18, 2013, Paper. “Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more overoptimistic than private sector forecasts, in a sample of 31 countries. When official forecasts that are especially optimistic relative to private forecasts ex ante, they are more likely to be over-optimistic relative to realizations ex post. Euro area governments made during the period 1999-2007 assiduously and inaccurately avoided forecasting deficit levels that would exceed the 3% Stability and Growth Pact threshold; private sector forecasters were not subject to this crude bias. Three important implications.Link

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All Quiet on the Currency Front

All Quiet on the Currency Front. Jeffrey Frankel, June 11, 2013, Opinion. “The term “currency wars” is a catchy way of saying “competitive devaluation.” In the wake of the sharp fall in the value of the yen over the last six months, owing to the monetary component of Japan’s efforts to jump-start its economy, the issue is expected to feature prominently on the agenda at the G-8’s upcoming summit in Northern Ireland. But should it? According to the International Monetary Fund, competitive devaluation occurs when countries are “manipulating exchange rates…to gain an unfair competitive advantage over other members… Link verified March 28, 2014

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Dispatches from the Currency Wars

Dispatches from the Currency Wars. Jeffrey Frankel, June 11, 2013, Opinion. “The value of the yen has fallen sharply since November, owing to the monetary component of Japan’s efforts to jump-start its economy (“Abenomics”). Thus the issue of currency wars is expected to feature on the agenda at the G-8’s upcoming summit in Enniskillen, UK, June 17-18. The phrase “currency wars” is catchy. But does it have genuine analytical content? It is another way of saying “competitive devaluation.” To use the language of IMF Article IV(1) iii, it is what happens when countries are “manipulating exchange rates…to gain an unfair competitive advantage over other members…”  Link verified April 4, 2014

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The Flawed Origins of Expansionary Austerity

The Flawed Origins of Expansionary Austerity. Jeffrey Frankel, May 20, 2013, Opinion. “Several of my Harvard University colleagues have recently been casualties in the crossfire between fiscal “austerians” and fiscal stimulators. The economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have received an astounding amount of press attention since it was discovered that they made a spreadsheet error in a 2010 paper that examined the statistical relationship between debt and growth. They quickly conceded their error. Soon after, the historian Niall Ferguson – also at Harvard – received much flack when, asked to comment on Keynes’…” Link verified March 28, 2014

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