Found 106 article(s) for author 'Jeffrey Frankel'

China Confronts the Market

China Confronts the Market. Jeffrey Frankel, September 4, 2015, Opinion, “China’s current economic woes have largely been viewed through a single lens: the government’s failure to let the market operate. But that perspective has led foreign observers to misinterpret some of this year’s most important developments in the foreign-exchange and stock markets. To be sure, Chinese authorities do intervene strongly in various ways. From 2004 to 2013, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) bought trillions of dollars in foreign-exchange reserves, thereby preventing the renminbi from appreciating as much as it would have had it floated freely…Link

Tags: , , ,

Is Tsipras the New Lula?

Is Tsipras the New Lula? Jeffrey Frankel, July 17, 2015, Opinion.Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has the chance to become to his country what South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva were to theirs: a man of the left who moves toward fiscal responsibility and freer markets. Like Tsipras, both were elected in the midst of an economic crisis. Both immediately confronted the international financial constraints that opposition politicians can afford to ignore…Link

Tags: , , , , ,

The Chimera of Currency Manipulation

The Chimera of Currency Manipulation. Jeffrey Frankel, June 10, 2015, Opinion. “US President Barack Obama is still pressing to obtain Trade Promotion Authority and use it to conclude negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) with the European Union. But many in the US Congress insist that provisions must be added to the agreements to prevent currency manipulation. Let’s be clear: If the US were to insist that ‘strong and enforceable currency disciplines’ be part of trade agreements, no deals would be concluded. Other countries would refuse – and they would be right…Link

Tags: , ,

The Euro Crisis: Where to From Here?

The Euro Crisis: Where to From Here? Jeffrey Frankel, May/June 2015, Opinion. “Germans cannot agree to unlimited bailouts of euro members.  On the other hand, if they had rigidly insisted on the founding principles (fiscal constraints, “no bailout clause,” and low inflation as the sole goal of the ECB), the euro would not have survived the post-2009 crisis.  The impact of fiscal austerity has been to raise debt/GDP ratios among periphery countries, not lower them.  The eurozone will endure, but through a lost decade of growth.   It would help if the ECB further eased monetary policy, which it could do by buying US treasury bonds…Link

Tags: , , , , , , ,

Harvard Professor Jeffrey Frankel: New And Improved Trade Agreements?

Harvard Professor Jeffrey Frankel: New And Improved Trade Agreements? Jeffrey Frankel, May 6, 2015, Opinion. “Trade is high on the agenda in the United States, Europe, and much of Asia this year. In the US, where concern has been heightened byweak recent trade numbers, President Barack Obama is pushing for Congress to give him Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), previously known as fast-track authority, to conclude the mega-regional Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with 11 Asian and Latin American countries. Without TPA, trading partners refrain from offering their best concessions, correctly fearing that Congress would seek to take “another bite of...” Link

Tags: , ,

A Strong Dollar Is a Sign of a Strong Economy

A Strong Dollar Is a Sign of a Strong Economy. Jeffrey Frankel, March 23, 2015, Opinion. “Any movement in the exchange rate has pros and cons. When the dollar appreciates as much as it has over the last year, the obvious disadvantage is that the loss in competitiveness by U.S. producers hits exports and the trade balance. But if the dollar had fallen by a similar amount, there would be lamentations over the debasing of the currency. Overall, the strong dollar is good news. This is because of the macroeconomic fundamentals behind it. Indeed textbook theories explain this episode unusually well…” Link

Tags: , ,

Nominal GDP Targeting for Developing Countries

Nominal GDP Targeting for Developing Countries. Jeffrey Frankel, January 27, 2015. “Interest in nominal GDP (NGDP) targeting has come in the context of large advanced economies. Developing countries are better suited for it, however, in light of big supply shocks and terms of trade shocks, such as monsoon rains and oil import price shocks in the case of India. Under annual inflation targeting (IT), the full impact of adverse supply shocks is felt as lost real GDP. NGDP targeting automatically accommodates such shocks, while retaining the advantage of anchoring expectations. We derive the condition under which NGDP targeting…” Link

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Nominal GDP Targeting for Developing Countries

Nominal GDP Targeting for Developing Countries. Jeffrey Frankel, January 2015, Paper. “The revival of interest in nominal GDP (NGDP) targeting has come in the context of large advanced economies. We consider the case for NGDP targeting for mid-sized developing countries, in light of their susceptibility to supply shocks and terms of trade shocks. For India, in particular, one major exogenous supply shock is the monsoon rains. NGDP targeting splits the impact of supply shocks automatically between inflation and real GDP growth. In the case of annual inflation targeting (IT), by contrast, the full impact of an adverse supply shock or terms of trade shock is felt as a loss in real GDP alone.” Link

Tags: , , ,

Why commodity prices are down in US but up in Europe

Why commodity prices are down in US but up in Europe. Jeffrey Frankel, December 31, 2014, Opinion. OIL prices plummeted 43 per cent during the course of 2014 – good news for oil-importing countries, but bad news for Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela and other oil exporters. Some attribute the price drop to the US shale-energy boom. Others cite Opec’s (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) failure to agree on supply restrictions. But that is not the whole story…” May require purchase or user account. Link

Tags: , ,