Found 94 article(s) for author 'Jeffrey Frankel'

The New and Not Improved NAFTA

The New and Not Improved NAFTA. Jeffrey Frankel, October 9, 2018, Opinion, “US President Donald Trump has called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which succeeds NAFTA, “the single greatest agreement ever signed.” In reality, it is not as good as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, from which Trump withdrew the US upon taking office, nor is it particularly better than the agreement it replaced.Link

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Trump’s Currency Confusion Continues

Trump’s Currency Confusion Continues. Jeffrey Frankel, September 20, 2018, Opinion, “Ever since the 2016 US presidential campaign, Donald Trump has falsely accused the Chinese of keeping the renminbi artificially weak. But the fact is that Trump’s own economic policies are driving up the value of dollar – an outcome that would have been foreseen by anyone with a basic understanding of economics.Link

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US will lack fiscal space to respond when next recession comes

US will lack fiscal space to respond when next recession comes. Jeffrey Frankel, August 28, 2018, Opinion, “The US economy is doing well. But the next recession – and there is always another recession – could be very bad. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that GDP growth in the second quarter of 2018 reached 4.1% – the highest since the 4.9% achieved under President Barack Obama in 2014. Another year of growth will match the record 10-year expansion of the 1990s. Add to that low unemployment and things are looking good.Link

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The Republicans’ Protectionist Pedigree

The Republicans’ Protectionist Pedigree. Jeffrey Frankel, June 13, 2018, Opinion, “In recent decades, US Republicans have tended to embrace free trade more willingly than US Democrats. But, during most of its first century, the Republican Party was protectionist in both word and deed, and it has elected the four most aggressively protectionist presidents of the last 50 years.Link

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An Economic Platform for US Democrats

An Economic Platform for US Democrats. Jeffrey Frankel, May 24, 2018, Opinion, “A driving force behind Donald Trump’s election as US president was the median household’s perception that it had been left behind by globalization and technological change. Fortunately, from an economist’s perspective, it isn’t difficult to think of proposals that would expand the economic pie and distribute the slices more equitably.Link

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The Economic Message from Equity Markets

The Economic Message from Equity Markets. Jeffrey Frankel, February 22, 2018, Opinion, “Everyone – not just those who hold stocks – should be concerned about a major stock-market plunge. While it is impossible to predict such a plunge, or whether it will coincide with the next recession, it is now clear that last year’s unusually low financial and economic volatility is over.Link

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How to Cope with Volatile Commodity Export Prices: Three Proposals

How to Cope with Volatile Commodity Export Prices: Three Proposals. Jeffrey Frankel, February 11, 2018, Paper, “Countries that specialize in commodities have in recent years been hit by high volatility in world prices for their exports. This paper suggests three ways that commodity-exporters can make themselves less vulnerable. (1) They can use option contracts to hedge against short-term declines in the commodity price without giving up the upside, as Mexico has shown. (2) Commodity-linked bonds can hedge longer-term risk, and often have a natural ultimate counter-party in multinational corporations that depend on the commodity as an input. (3) The well-documented pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy among commodity exporters can be reduced by insulating official forecasters against optimism bias, as Chile has shownLink

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Making America’s Deficits Great Again

Making America’s Deficits Great Again. Jeffrey Frankel, January 15, 2018, Opinion, “The new tax legislation pushed through by Donald Trump and congressional Republicans is virtually certain to raise the budget deficit and, in turn, the current-account deficit. Whatever the resemblance to the Reagan-era tax cuts of 1981-1983, it’s not morning in America.Link

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