Found 88 article(s) for author 'Jeffrey Frankel'

The Economic Message from Equity Markets

The Economic Message from Equity Markets. Jeffrey Frankel, February 22, 2018, Opinion, “Everyone – not just those who hold stocks – should be concerned about a major stock-market plunge. While it is impossible to predict such a plunge, or whether it will coincide with the next recession, it is now clear that last year’s unusually low financial and economic volatility is over.Link

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How to Cope with Volatile Commodity Export Prices: Three Proposals

How to Cope with Volatile Commodity Export Prices: Three Proposals. Jeffrey Frankel, February 11, 2018, Paper, “Countries that specialize in commodities have in recent years been hit by high volatility in world prices for their exports. This paper suggests three ways that commodity-exporters can make themselves less vulnerable. (1) They can use option contracts to hedge against short-term declines in the commodity price without giving up the upside, as Mexico has shown. (2) Commodity-linked bonds can hedge longer-term risk, and often have a natural ultimate counter-party in multinational corporations that depend on the commodity as an input. (3) The well-documented pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy among commodity exporters can be reduced by insulating official forecasters against optimism bias, as Chile has shownLink

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Making America’s Deficits Great Again

Making America’s Deficits Great Again. Jeffrey Frankel, January 15, 2018, Opinion, “The new tax legislation pushed through by Donald Trump and congressional Republicans is virtually certain to raise the budget deficit and, in turn, the current-account deficit. Whatever the resemblance to the Reagan-era tax cuts of 1981-1983, it’s not morning in America.Link

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Does Trade Fuel Inequality?

Does Trade Fuel Inequality? Jeffrey Frankel, January 2, 2018, Opinion, “To explain the rise in inequality that began in the 1980s and has accelerated since the turn of the century, many have pointed out that indicators of globalization, such as the trade-to-GDP ratio, have also been rising rapidly over the same period. But does that correlation imply a causal link between trade and inequality?Link

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Reagan’s Tax Reforms Revisited

Reagan’s Tax Reforms Revisited. Jeffrey Frankel, November 24, 2017, Opinion, “The US has plenty of experience with irresponsible tax cuts. Yet its leaders seem not to have learned their lesson. Should Republicans secure the legislative victory they so desire, the entire country – with the exception, perhaps, of the wealthiest few – will lose.Link

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The Fed shortlist: who will hold the second most important job in the US?

The Fed shortlist: who will hold the second most important job in the US? Jeffrey Frankel, October 27, 2017, Opinion, “US President Donald Trump’s administration is expected, by 2 November, to announce its choice, subject to Senate approval, to succeed Janet Yellen as chair of the Federal Reserve Board in February 2018. The White House has indicated it is weighing up five potential candidates. Not all of them would be a good choice.Link

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The Next Fed Chair

The Next Fed Chair. Jeffrey Frankel, October 26, 2017, Opinion, “Good central bankers make decisions based on what they believe is best for the economy, relying on evolving data, not on evolving political imperatives. Only two of the Trump administration’s five apparent candidates to chair the US Federal Reserve fit the bill.Link

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Four Proposals to Help Commodity Exporters Cope with Price Volatility

Four Proposals to Help Commodity Exporters Cope with Price Volatility. Jeffrey Frankel, October 17, 2017, Paper, “Financial markets have done little, if anything, to moderate the impact of commodity price volatility on the exporting countries. This column reviews four proposals to make exporters less vulnerable to volatility – two attempts at appropriate financial engineering, and two attempts at countercyclical macroeconomic policy. One in each category is tried and tested; the other two have hardly been tried.Link

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Why Financial Markets Underestimate Risk

Why Financial Markets Underestimate Risk. Jeffrey Frankel, September 25, 2017, Opinion, “Today’s economy is in a “risk-on” period, when investors exchange safe-haven assets like US Treasury Bills for riskier ones, from real estate to carry-trade currencies. But when such behavior assumes that economic conditions are more stable than they are, as seems to be the case today, trouble inevitably follows.Link

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