Found 18 article(s) for author 'Inflation'

Explaining Inflation Inertia

Explaining Inflation Inertia. Carmen Reinhart, May 6, 2019, Opinion, “Despite central bankers’ concerted efforts, credible price-stability targets have proved elusive in countries like Argentina, where inflation is soaring, and Japan, which can’t shake the specter of deflation. What can governments do to influence inflation expectations when central banks’ policies prove insufficient to the task?Link

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Trend, Seasonal, and Sectoral Inflation in the Euro Area

Trend, Seasonal, and Sectoral Inflation in the Euro Area. James Stock, January 27, 2019, Paper, “An unobserved components model with stochastic volatility is used to decompose aggregate Euro area HICP inflation into a trend, seasonal and irregular components. Estimates of the components based only on aggregate data are imprecise: the width of 68% error bands for the seasonally adjusted value of aggregate inflation is 1.0 percentage points in the final quarter of the sample. Estimates are more precise using a multivariate model for a 13-sector decomposition of aggregate inflation, which yields a corresponding error band that is roughly 40% narrower. Trend inflation exhibited substantial variability during the 2001-2018 period and this variability closely mirrored variation in real activity.Link

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Fed needs to be mindful of lags between monetary policy and real economy

Fed needs to be mindful of lags between monetary policy and real economy. Lawrence Summers, October 5, 2018, Video, “Lawrence Summers, former Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton and Harvard University president emeritus, joins ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss where the Fed’s mindset is on interest rates, inflationary pressures and the biggest economic risks.Link

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‘Excessively High’ Equity Prices Are Biggest Risk

‘Excessively High’ Equity Prices Are Biggest Risk.  Martin Feldstein, August 24, 2018, Video, “Martin Feldstein, National Bureau of Economic Research chairman emeritus and a Harvard University economist, discusses the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy with Bloomberg’s Mike McKee at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.Link

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Too-Tight Fed Policy Greater Risk Than Inflation

Too-Tight Fed Policy Greater Risk Than Inflation. Lawrence Summers, July 1, 2018, Video, “Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes that slow the nearly decade-long expansion are a greater risk to the economy than inflation. “Is the strategy one of relying on the Phillips curve and trying to preempt inflation, or is the strategy one of trying to let the economy grow as much as possible and respond to inflation problems as they arise,” Summers said in an interview Wednesday on Bloomberg Television. “I would very much favor the second.”Link

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Should the Fed stick with the 2 percent inflation target or rethink it?

Should the Fed stick with the 2 percent inflation target or rethink it? Lawrence Summers, January 8, 2018, Video, “There is debate (mainly among those familiar with monetary policy issues) about the wisdom of keeping or changing the 2 percent inflation target. This is likely to be a continuing conversation that’ll continue under the new Fed chair. Much of the discussion is from advocates of one or another alternative making their pitch.Link

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Dealing with Monetary Paralysis at the Zero Bound

Dealing with Monetary Paralysis at the Zero Bound. Kenneth Rogoff, Summer 2017, Paper, “Recently, the key constraint for central banks is the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Central banks fear that if they push short-term policy interest rates too deeply negative, there will be a massive flight into paper currency. This paper asks whether, in a world where paper currency is becoming increasingly vestigial outside small transactions (at least in the legal, tax compliant economy), there might be relatively simple ways to finesse the zero bound without affecting how most ordinary people live. Surprisingly, this question gets little attention compared to the massive number of articles that take the zero bound as given and look for out-of-the-box solutions for dealing with it. In an inversion of the old joke, it is a bit as if the economics literature has insisted on positing ‘assume we don’t have a can opener,’ without considering the possibility that we might be able to devise one. It makes sense not to wait until the next financial crisis to develop plans.Link

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The Destructive Power of Inflation

The Destructive Power of Inflation. Martin Feldstein, December 22, 2016, Opinion, “When I was in Argentina last week, I was reminded of the devastating power of high inflation. Argentina’s annual inflation rate is now about 20%, down from an estimated rate of about 40% last year. The central bank is struggling to keep the economy on a disinflationary path, with a goal of achieving a 5% rate three years from now.Link

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Ending the Fed’s Inflation Fixation

Ending the Fed’s Inflation Fixation. Martin Feldstein, May 17, 2016, Opinion, “The primary role of the Federal Reserve and other central banks should be to prevent high rates of inflation. The double-digit inflation rates of the late 1970s and early ’80s were a destructive and frightening experience that could have been avoided by better monetary policy in the previous decade. Fortunately, the Fed’s tighter monetary policy under Paul Volcker brought the inflation rate down and set the stage for a strong economic recovery during the Reagan years.Link

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