Found 32 article(s) for author 'GDP'

A Roadmap for Investment Promotion and Export Diversification: The Case of Jordan

A Roadmap for Investment Promotion and Export Diversification: The Case of Jordan. Ricardo Hausmann, Miguel Angel Santos, December 2019, Paper, “Jordan faces a number of pressing economic challenges: low growth, high unemployment, rising debt levels, and continued vulnerability to regional shocks. After a decade of fast economic growth, the economy decelerated with the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09. From then onwards, various external shocks have thrown its economy out of balance and prolonged the slowdown for over a decade now. Conflicts in neighboring countries have led to reduced demand from key export markets and cut off important trade routes. Foreign direct investment, which averaged 12.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) between 2003-2009, fell to 5.1% of GDP over the 2010-2017. Regional conflicts have interrupted the supply of gas from Egypt – forcing Jordan to import oil at a time of record prices, had a negative impact on tourism, and also provoked a massive influx of migrants and refugees. Failure to cope with 50.4% population growth between led to nine consecutive years (2008-2017) of negative growth rates in GDP per capita, resulting in a cumulative loss of 14.0% over the past decade (2009-2018). Debt to GDP ratios, which were at 55% by the end of 2009, have skyrocketed to 94%.Link

Tags: , , , , , ,

An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth Dynamics

An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth Dynamics. James Stock, December 15, 2019, Paper, “We develop a Bayesian latent factor model of the joint evolution of GDP per capita for 113 countries over the 118 years from 1900 to 2017. We find considerable heterogeneity in rates of convergence, including rates for some countries that are so slow that they might not converge (or diverge) in century-long samples, and evidence of “convergence clubs” of countries. The joint Bayesian structure allows us to compute a joint predictive distribution for the output paths of these countries over the next 100 years. This predictive distribution can be used for simulations requiring projections into the deep future, such as estimating the costs of climate change. The model’s pooling of information across countries results in tighter prediction intervals than are achieved using univariate information sets. Still, even using more than a century of data on many countries, the 100-year growth paths exhibit very wide uncertainty.Link

Tags: , , , , , ,

Public borrowing is cheap but ramping up debt is not without risk

Public borrowing is cheap but ramping up debt is not without risk. Kenneth Rogoff, December 9, 2019, Opinion, “With interest rates on government debt at multi-decade lows, a number of leading economists have argued that almost every advanced economy can allow debt to drift up towards Japanese levels (over 150% of GDP even by the most conservative measure) without any great concern about long-term consequences. Advocates of much higher debt might be right, but they tend to downplay or ignore everything that can go wrong.Link

Tags: , , , , , , ,

Jason Furman, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, on the Economy

Jason Furman, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, on the Economy. Jason Furman, September 24, 2019, Video, “Jason Furman, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers and Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard Kennedy School, discusses the economy. He speaks with David Westin on “Bloomberg: Balance of Power.”Link

Tags: , , , , ,

Disaster Probability and Options-Pricing with Disaster Risk

Disaster Probability and Options-Pricing with Disaster Risk. Robert Barro, April 2019, Paper, “We derive a new option-pricing formula from recursive preference and estimate disaster probability from option prices. The new options-pricing formula applies to far-out-of-the money put options on the stock market when disaster risk dominates, the size distribution of disasters follows a power law, and the economy has a representative agent with Epstein-Zin utility. The formula conforms with data on put-options prices for the U.S. S&P index from 1983 to 2018 and for analogous indices for other countries starting in the mid-1990s. The estimated disaster probability, inferred from monthly fixed effects, is highly correlated across countries and peaks during the financial crisis of 2008-09. The estimated disaster probability forecasts downside risk in the economy. Using quantile regressions, we find that the disaster probability forecasts growth vulnerabilities, defined GDP and Industrial Production growth at the lowest decile.Link

Tags: , , ,

Jordan: The Elements of a Growth Strategy

Jordan: The Elements of a Growth Strategy. Ricardo Hausmann, Tim O’Brien, Miguel Angel Santos,  2019, Paper, “In the decade prior to the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, Jordan enjoyed a period of impressive macroeconomic performance. The prolonged expansion was export-led, with total exports of goods and services tripling over that period. The boom was not only due to better prices for Jordan’s exports, as there were also significant gains in global market share of Jordan’s garment, agriculture and chemical exports. Throughout these years, the country ran large current account deficits that were largely financed by massive inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) coming from the United Arab Emirates, United States, India, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. By 2009, the size of total public debt was moderate, at 55% of the size of the economy. The Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 and a series of subsequent negative external shocks affected Jordan in significant ways, throwing its economy out of balance. Conflict in neighboring countries led to reduced demand from key export markets and cut off important trade routes. FDI, which averaged 12.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) over the period 2003-2009, fell to 5.1% of GDP over the period of 2010-2017. At the same time, they brought a massive wave of migrants and refugees, resulting in a net population increase of 50.4% between 2008 and 2017.Link

Tags: , , , , , , ,

Living costs and living standards: Australian development 1820–1870

Living costs and living standards: Australian development 1820–1870. , October 29, 2018, Paper, “This paper contributes to the New World living standard leadership debate by comparing the Australian experience during 1820s–1870s with the USA, Latin America, and the UK. Using novel living costs data, we compute two estimates of income leadership: welfare ratios and purchasing–power–parity-adjusted GDP per capita. Australia started considerably below the UK and the USA but by the 1870s, it had overtaken the former and had almost done so for the latter, due to relatively rapid labour productivity growth and a steep decline in living costs. Still, in the 1870s Australia was not the world income leader, but a close second.Link

Tags: , , , ,

Production and Welfare: Progress in Economic Measurement

Production and Welfare: Progress in Economic Measurement. Dale Jorgenson, , Paper, “While the GDP was intended by its originators as a measure of production, the absence of a measure of welfare in the national accounts has led to widespread misuse of the GDP to proxy welfare. Measures of welfare are needed to appraise the outcomes of changes in economic policies and evaluate the results. Concepts that describe the income distribution, such as poverty and inequality, fall within the scope of welfare rather than production. This paper reviews recent advances in the measurement of production and welfare within the national accounts, primarily in the United States and international organizations. Expanding the framework beyond the national accounts has led to important innovations in the measurement of both production and welfare.Link

Tags: , , , ,

US will lack fiscal space to respond when next recession comes

US will lack fiscal space to respond when next recession comes. Jeffrey Frankel, August 28, 2018, Opinion, “The US economy is doing well. But the next recession – and there is always another recession – could be very bad. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that GDP growth in the second quarter of 2018 reached 4.1% – the highest since the 4.9% achieved under President Barack Obama in 2014. Another year of growth will match the record 10-year expansion of the 1990s. Add to that low unemployment and things are looking good.Link

Tags: , , , , ,

Global Markets and Inequality in African Countries

Global Markets and Inequality in African Countries. Eric Maskin, 2018, Paper, “Globalization has had a big impact on many African countries in the last 20 years. It has provided a considerably expanded market for their exports; allowed them to specialize more in products for which they have a comparative advantage; and given their consumers access to an array of goods that they would not otherwise enjoy. In addition, it has led to impressive GDP growth in much of Africa, and has been an important force for improving average prosperity.Link

Tags: , , , , , ,