Found 180 article(s) for author 'Financial Crisis'

John Campbell on the Current Investing Environment, Asset Pricing, Stock Market Lessons from India, and Solutions for Financial Crises

John Campbell on the Current Investing Environment, Asset Pricing, Stock Market Lessons from India, and Solutions for Financial Crises September 2019. GrowthPolicy’s Devjani Roy interviewed John Y. Campbell, Morton L. and Carole S. Olshan Professor of Economics at Harvard University, on the current investing environment, asset pricing, stock market lessons from India, and solutions for […]

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Launch a Pre-Emptive Strike Against Recession

Launch a Pre-Emptive Strike Against Recession. Jason Furman, September 5, 2019, Opinion, “President Trump was right to set aside premature plans for fiscal stimulus last month. Based on the current economic situation, stimulus isn’t yet warranted—but it may be soon. Given the uncertainty, Congress should pass a law immediately that would automatically trigger stimulus if the labor market deteriorates, with unemployment rising rapidly. The package should include not only tax cuts but also relief for states, as well as extra…Link

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Controlling the Long-Term Problem of Short-Term Funding

Controlling the Long-Term Problem of Short-Term Funding. Hal Scott, August 23, 2019, Paper, “While financial crises can be triggered by several causes, runs on short-term liabilities are at the heart of all financial crises, with the recent 2007–09 financial crisis being no exception. Given the unpredictability of crisis triggers and the overwhelming predictability of short-term funding’s role in financial crises, legislative and regulatory responses to the recent financial crisis should focus on the consequences of relying on short-term funding in the financial system. However, in addressing the problem of such funding, it is important to recognize the social benefits afforded by short-term liabilities and not simply the costs. To this end, this paper provides a brief overview of short-term funding in the U.S. financial system, while also highlighting the trade-off between the costs and benefits of short-term liabilities. The paper proceeds with an analysis of various proposals aimed at addressing the short-term funding issue.Link

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Carmen Reinhart Discusses Global Economic Risks

Carmen Reinhart Discusses Global Economic Risks. Carmen Reinhart, June 28, 2019, Audio, “Carmen Reinhart, economist and the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School, discusses the panorama of risks facing the global economy. She speaks with Bloomberg Global Economics and Policy editor Kathleen Hayes on “Politics, Policy, Power and Law.”Link

 

 

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The US Recovery Turns Ten

The US Recovery Turns Ten. Jeffrey Frankel, June 14, 2019, Opinion, “The best explanation for the current ten-year US economic expansion – tied for the longest since 1854 – is disappointingly simple: the Great Recession was the worst downturn since the 1930s. And if the dates of American business cycles were determined by the rule that most other countries apply, the current expansion would be far from beating the record.Link

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How Central-Bank Independence Dies

How Central-Bank Independence Dies. Kenneth Rogoff, May 31, 2019, Opinion, “Since the world’s major central banks came to the global economy’s rescue in 2008, they have had more and more tasks foisted upon them, even as some politicians question their expanded role and others seek to undermine their policymaking autonomy. To escape this dilemma, monetary authorities must get back to doing what they do best.Link

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Effects of Austerity: Expenditure- and Tax-based Approaches

Effects of Austerity: Expenditure- and Tax-based Approaches. Alberto Alesina, Spring 2019, Paper, “Sometimes governments need to reduce their budget deficits aggressively. These policies are labeled “austerity.” Almost always austerity is needed because excessive debt has been accumulated, as a result of policy mistakes and political distortions (Alesina and Passalacqua 2016; Yared, in this issue). The austerity policies embraced by several European countries starting in 2010 have generated an extraordinarily harsh policy debate. One side has argued that austerity is (almost) always a bad idea. From this perspective, even European countries that were experiencing serious difficulties in financial markets—either by being totally cut off from borrowing like Greece, or by paying high risk premia like Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and Italy—should have continued to stimulate their economies with high levels of government spending. Austerity, the argument continues, was self-defeating because the recessions it induced, or extended, only increased government debt as a ratio of GDP. Blanchard and Leigh (2014) argued that this round of austerity was particularly costly: in other words, fiscal multipliers were especially high. The other side argued that postponing austerity would have caused Effects.Link

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What a wise US-China trade deal looks like? Full of trade-offs

What a wise US-China trade deal looks like? Full of trade-offs. Kenneth Rogoff, May 8, 2019, Opinion, “Will a possibly imminent US-China trade agreement exacerbate global business cycles or even plant the seeds of the next Asian financial crisis? If the eventual agreement – assuming there is one – forces China to hew indefinitely to its outmoded, overly rigid exchange-rate regime, then the answer may be yes.Link

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An economist explains what happens if there’s another financial crisis

An economist explains what happens if there’s another financial crisis. Kenneth Rogoff, April 30, 2019, Opinion, “The financial crisis of 2008 may have started in the US banking sector but it went on to unleash the deepest global recession since the Great Depression. The year 2009 became the first on record where global GDP contracted in real terms and the lost growth resulting from the crisis and ensuing recession has been estimated at over $10 trillion (more than one-sixth of global GDP in 2008).” Link

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Evolution or Revolution? Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy after the Great Recession

Evolution or Revolution? Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy after the Great Recession. Lawrence Summers, 2019, Book, “Leading economists discuss post–financial crisis policy dilemmas, including the dangers of complacency in a period of relative stability. The Great Depression led to the Keynesian revolution and dramatic shifts in macroeconomic theory and macroeconomic policy. Similarly, the stagflation of the 1970s led to the adoption of the natural rate hypothesis and to a major reassessment of the role of macroeconomic policy. Should the financial crisis and the Great Recession lead to yet another major reassessment, to another intellectual revolution? Will it? If so, what form should it, or will it, take? These are the questions taken up in this book, in a series of contributions by policymakers and academics. The contributors discuss the complex role of the financial sector, the relative roles of monetary and fiscal policy, the limits of monetary policy to address financial stability, the need for fiscal policy to play a more active role in stabilization, and the relative roles of financial regulation and macroprudential tools. The general message is a warning against going back to precrisis ways—to narrow inflation targeting, little use of fiscal policy for stabilization, and insufficient financial regulation.Link

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