Found 2 article(s) for author 'Emil Siriwardane'

A Measure of Risk Appetite for the Macroeconomy

A Measure of Risk Appetite for the Macroeconomy. Emil Siriwardane, Adi Sunderam, March 2018, Paper, “We document a strong and robust positive relationship between the one-year real rate and the contemporaneous valuation of volatile stocks, which we contend measures the economy’s risk appetite. Our novel proxy for risk appetite explains 41% of the variation in the real rate since 1970, while the valuation of the aggregate stock market explains just 1%. In addition, the real rate forecasts returns on volatile stocks, confirming our interpretation that changes in risk appetite drive the real rate. Increases in our measure of risk appetite are followed by a boom in investment and output.Link

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Does Precautionary Savings Drive the Real Interest Rate? Evidence from the Stock Market

Does Precautionary Savings Drive the Real Interest Rate? Evidence from the Stock Market. Emil Siriwardane, Adi Sunderam, August 6, 2017, Paper, “We document a strong and robust relation between the one-year real rate and precautionary savings motives, as measured by the stock market. Our novel proxy for precautionary savings, based on the difference in valuations between low- and highvolatility stocks, explains 37% of variation in the real rate. In addition, the real rate forecasts returns on the low-minus-high volatility portfolio, though it appears unrelated with measures of the quantity of risk. Our results suggest that precautionary savings motives, and thus the real rate, are driven by time-varying attitudes towards risk. We rationalize these findings in a stylized model with segmented investor clienteles and habit formation.Link

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