Found 19 article(s) for author 'Emerging Markets'

Corporate Debt, Firm Size and Financial Fragility in Emerging Markets

Corporate Debt, Firm Size and Financial Fragility in Emerging Markets. Laura Alfaro, January 2019, Paper, “The post-Global Financial Crisis period shows a surge in corporate leverage in emerging markets and a number of countries with deteriorated corporate financial fragility indicators (Altman’s Z-score). Firm size plays a critical role in the relationship between leverage, firm fragility and exchange rate movements in emerging markets. While the relationship between firm-leverage and distress scores varies over time, the relationship between firm size and corporate vulnerability is relatively time-invariant. All else equal, large firms in emerging markets are more financially vulnerable and also systemically important. Consistent with the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations in Gabaix (2011), idiosyncratic shocks to the sales growth of large firms are positively and significantly correlated with GDP growth in our emerging markets sample. Relatedly, the negative impact of exchange rate shocks has a more acute impact on the sales growth of the more highly levered large firms.Link

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Opportunistic Returns and Dynamic Pricing: Empirical Evidence from Online Retailing in Emerging Market

Opportunistic Returns and Dynamic Pricing: Empirical Evidence from Online Retailing in Emerging Market. Antonio Moreno, Donald Ngwe, September 2018, Paper, “We investigate how dynamic pricing can lead to more product returns in the online retail industry. Using detailed sales data of more than two million transactions from the Indian online retail market, where price promotions are very common, we document two types of strategic customer behavior that have not been considered in previous research. First, customers who monitor product prices after purchase may initiate opportunistic returns because of price drops. Second, customers who anticipate a future return may strategically choose a payment method that facilitates product returns.Link

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Harvard’s Rogoff Says Next Global Crisis to Come From China

Harvard’s Rogoff Says Next Global Crisis to Come From China. Kenneth Rogoff, September 12, 2018, Video, “Harvard Professor Kenneth Rogoff discusses the risks posed by emerging markets and warns that the next global crisis may potentially come from China. He speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance.” (Source: Bloomberg).Link

 

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Are Emerging Markets the Canary in the Financial Coal Mine?

Are Emerging Markets the Canary in the Financial Coal Mine? Kenneth Rogoff, June 6, 2018, Opinion, “Economists who assure us that advanced-economy debt is completely “safe” sound eerily like those who touted the “Great Moderation” – the supposedly permanent reduction in cyclical volatility – a generation ago. In many cases, they are the same people.Link

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An Empirical Analysis of Investment Return Dispersion in Emerging Market Private Equity

An Empirical Analysis of Investment Return Dispersion in Emerging Market Private Equity. Josh Lerner, Fall 2017, Paper, “The authors use transaction-level data to compare the dispersion of private equity (PE) returns in emerging markets (EMs) to the same in developed markets (DMs). They regress within-market absolute deviation from the mean on an EM indicator and controls. They find evidence suggesting that the distribution of transaction-level TVPI has lower variance within EMs than within DMs, although with some caveats. The results suggest opportunities for further research exploring the relative riskiness of EM PE.Link

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Lessons Unlearned? Corporate Debt in Emerging Markets

Lessons Unlearned? Corporate Debt in Emerging Markets. Laura Alfaro, May 2017, Paper, “This paper documents a set of stylized facts about leverage and financial fragility in the nonfinancial corporate sector in emerging markets since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Corporate debt vulnerability indicators prior to the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) attributed to corporate financial roots provide a benchmark for comparison. The firm-level data suggest that emerging markets post-GFC have lower leverage ratios than the five Asian crisis countries (Asian Five) in the run-up to the AFC. However, a broader set of emerging market countries show weaker liquidity, solvency, and profitability indicators.Link

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Mapping Frontier Economies

Mapping Frontier Economies. Aldo Musacchio, Eric Werker, December 2016, Paper, “Global players in search of double-digit growth are running out of opportunities. Emerging-market giants such as Brazil, Russia, and China are experiencing an economic slowdown. They are increasingly expensive as a base for operations, and it’s harder to export to and import from these countries than it used to be.Link

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Emerging Markets Should Go for the Gold

Emerging Markets Should Go for the Gold. Kenneth Rogoff, May 3, 2016, Opinion. “Are emerging-market central banks overweight in dollars and underweight in gold? Given a slowing global economy, in which emerging markets are probably very grateful for any reserves they retain, this might seem an ill-timed question. But there is a good case to be made that a shift in emerging markets toward accumulating gold would help the international financial system function more smoothly and benefit everyone.Link

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Private Equity in Emerging Markets: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow

Private Equity in Emerging Markets: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow. Josh Lerner, May 2016, Paper, “General partners of private equity entered emerging markets in the 1990s seeking diversification and returns, and their investment has increased substantially since then. Manager selection remains important because there is a wide range of returns across funds of the same vintage, and minority LP (limited partner) investments are found to perform the same as or better than majority investments.Link

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