Found 6 article(s) for author 'Demonetization'

Cash and the Economy: Evidence from India’s Demonetization

Cash and the Economy: Evidence from India’s Demonetization. Gita Gopinath, Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, December 13, 2018, Paper, “We analyze a unique episode in the history of monetary economics, the 2016 Indian “demonetization.” This policy made 86% of cash in circulation illegal tender overnight, with new notes gradually introduced over the next several months. We present a model of demonetization where agents hold cash both to satisfy a cash-in-advance constraint and for tax evasion purposes. We test the predictions of the model in the cross-section of Indian districts using several novel data sets including: a data set containing the geographic distribution of demonetized and new notes for causal inference; nightlights data and employment surveys to measure economic activity including in the informal sector; debit/credit cards and e-wallet transactions data; and banking data on deposit and credit growth. Districts experiencing more severe demonetization had relative reductions in economic activity, faster adoption of alternative payment technologies, and lower bank credit growth. The cross-sectional responses cumulate to a contraction in employment and nightlights-based output due to demonetization of 2 p.p. and of bank credit of 2 p.p. in 2016Q4 relative to their counterfactual paths, effects which dissipate over the next few months. We use our model to show these cumulated effects are a lower bound for the aggregate effects of demonetization. We conclude that unlike in the cashless limit of new-Keynesian models, in modern India cash serves an essential role in facilitating economic activity.Link

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Assessing Impact Of Demonetisation Remains A Moving Target

Assessing Impact Of Demonetisation Remains A Moving Target. Gita Gopinath, December 23, 2016, Video, “India’s experiment with demonetisation, the largest such exercise ever undertaken, has caught the attention of global economists. From former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who raised questions about how successful the move will be in curbing corruption, to Harvard Professor Kenneth Rogoff, who advised emerging economies not to ‘try this at home.’Link

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Demonetization on Five Continents

Demonetization on Five Continents. Jeffrey Frankel, December 22, 2016, Opinion, “Around the world, several countries are currently undergoing “demonetization,” or currency reforms in which the government removes banknotes of a certain denomination from circulation and replaces them with new notes. Governments pursue demonetization for a variety of reasons, and some of the recent initiatives are going better than others.Link

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Demonetization Dos and Don’ts

Demonetization Dos and Don’ts. Gita Gopinath, November 27, 2016, Opinion, “On November 8, at 8:15 in the evening, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government announced that, at the stroke of midnight, all 500- and 1,000-rupee notes in circulation would no longer be considered legal tender, and would need to be exchanged for new 500- and 2,000-rupee notes. Modi’s “demonetization” intervention affected 85% of the money in circulation in India. It was an unprecedented move, whether in India or almost anywhere else, and it is by far Modi’s boldest policy intervention to date.Link

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Most sweeping change in currency policy in the world in decades

Most sweeping change in currency policy in the world in decades. Lawrence Summers, November 21, 2016, Opinion, “One of us (Larry) has long advocated the abolition of the $100 note in the US context and the 500 euro note (aka the Bin Laden) in the European context. We assumed the next step after the ECB’s announcement that the 500 euro note would be phased out would be discussion of the $100 bill and of the particularly pernicious 1000 Swiss franc note.Link

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India’s Currency Exchange and The Curse of Cash

India’s Currency Exchange and The Curse of Cash. Kenneth Rogoff, November 17, 2016, Opinion, “On the same day that the United States was carrying out its 2016 presidential election, India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, announced on national TV that the country’s two highest-denomination notes, the 500 and 1000 rupee (worth roughly $7.50 and $15.00) would no longer be legal tender by midnight that night, and that citizens would have until the end of the year to surrender their notes for new ones. His stated aim was to fight “black money”: cash used for tax evasion, crime, terror, and corruption. It was a bold, audacious move to radically alter the mindset of an economy where less than 2% of citizens pay income tax, and where official corruption is endemic.Link

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