Found 31 article(s) for author 'Dale Jorgenson'

Estimating flexible consumption functions for urban and rural households in China

Estimating flexible consumption functions for urban and rural households in China. Dale Jorgenson, 2020, Paper, “There are few comprehensive studies of household consumption in China due to data restrictions. This prevents the calculation of inequality indices based on consumption. Secondly, this makes a comprehensive analysis of policies that affect consumption difficult; economy-wide models used for analysis often have to employ simple consumption forms with unit income elasticities. We estimate a translog demand system distinguished by demographic characteristics, giving price and income elasticities that should be useful for policy analysis. We estimate separate functions for urban and rural households using household expenditure data and detailed commodity prices (1995–2006). This allows future analysis of social welfare and inequality based on consumption to supplement existing studies based on income. To illustrate an application of the model, we project consumption composition based on projected prices, incomes and demographic changes – aging, education improvement and urbanization.Link

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Effective labor supply and growth outlook in China

Effective labor supply and growth outlook in China. Dale Jorgenson, December 12, 2019, Paper, “The falling projections of working-age population in China has led to predictions of much slower economic growth. We consider three mechanisms that could contribute to higher effective labor supply growth – further improvement in educational attainment due to cohort replacement and rising college enrollment, improvement in aggregate labor quality due to urbanization, and higher labor force participation due to later retirement. We find that these factors result in a projected growth rate of effective labor input of 0.40% for 2015-2030 compared to -0.60% for working age population. As a result, the projected growth rate of GDP will be 5.80% for 2015-2030 compared to 5.23% if these factors are ignored.Link

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China’s Emissions Trading System and an ETS-Carbon Tax Hybrid

China’s Emissions Trading System and an ETS-Carbon Tax Hybrid. Dale Jorgenson, April 29, 2019, Paper, “China is introducing a national carbon emission trading system (ETS), with details yet to be finalized. The ETS is expected to cover only the major emitters but it is often argued that a more comprehensive system will achieve the emission goals at lower cost. We first examine an ETS that covers both electricity and cement sectors and consider an ambitious cap starting in 2017 that will meet the official objective to reduce the carbon-GDP intensity by 60-65% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. The two ETS-covered industries are compensated with an output-based subsidy to represent the intention to give free permits to the covered enterprises. We then consider a hybrid system where the non-ETS sectors pay a carbon tax and share in the CO2 reduction burden. Our simulations indicate that hybrid systems will achieve the same CO2 goals with lower permit prices and GDP losses. We also show how auctioning of the permits improves the efficiency of the ETS and the hybrid systems. Finally, we find that these CO2 control policies are progressive in that higher incomes households bear a bigger burden.Link

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Recent U.S. Economic Performance and Prospects for Future Growth

Recent U.S. Economic Performance and Prospects for Future Growth. Dale Jorgenson, April 2, 2019, Paper, “The sharp slowdown of U.S. productivity growth since the Great Recession in 2008 has been widely noted and there is a vigorous debate about the causes of the slowdown and the outlook for future economic growth1. Growth in the medium term will be driven by growth in capital, total factor productivity and revival of participation rates with a smaller role for improvements in educational attainment. Jorgenson et al. (2017), for example, give a 10-year projection of 1.8% per year for GDP growth, derived from a 0.50 percentage point contribution of hours growth, 0.45 points from TFP, 0.76 from capital deepening, and only 0.12 from labor quality growth. Fernald (2016) gives a similar projection of 0.55 points for hours growth and 1.1 points for labor productivity growth. Our overall conclusion is that educational attainment will play a diminished role in future U.S. economic growth.Link

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Production and Welfare: Progress in Economic Measurement

Production and Welfare: Progress in Economic Measurement. Dale Jorgenson, , Paper, “While the GDP was intended by its originators as a measure of production, the absence of a measure of welfare in the national accounts has led to widespread misuse of the GDP to proxy welfare. Measures of welfare are needed to appraise the outcomes of changes in economic policies and evaluate the results. Concepts that describe the income distribution, such as poverty and inequality, fall within the scope of welfare rather than production. This paper reviews recent advances in the measurement of production and welfare within the national accounts, primarily in the United States and international organizations. Expanding the framework beyond the national accounts has led to important innovations in the measurement of both production and welfare.Link

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Global and Regional Productivity and Economic Growth: The Fifth World KLEMS Conference

Global and Regional Productivity and Economic Growth: The Fifth World KLEMS Conference. Dale Jorgenson, June 2018, Paper, “This issue of the International Productivity Monitor includes a selection of papers presented at the Fifth World KLEMS Conference, held at the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, on June 4-5, 2018.2 The World KLEMS Initiative was established at Harvard at the First World KLEMS Conference, held at the Kennedy School of Government in 2010.3 Five World KLEMS Conferences have discussed data on capital (K) and labour (L) services, as well as inputs and outputs of energy (E), materials (M), and services (S) for more than forty countries. These have been grouped into three major regions— EU (European Union) KLEMS, LA (Latin America) KLEMS, and Asia KLEMS.Link

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The Growth of the World Economy

The Growth of the World Economy. Dale Jorgenson, 2018, Book Chapter, “The World KLEMS Initiative was established at the First World KLEMS Conference, held at Harvard University in August 2010. The purpose of the initiative is to generate industry-level datasets, consisting of outputs and inputs of capital (K) and labor (L), together with inputs of energy (E), materials (M), and services (S). Productivity for each industry is defined as output per unit of all inputs. These datasets provide a new framework for analyzing the sources of economic growth at the industry and aggregate levels for countries around the world. This framework has closed a critical gap in systems of national accounts.Link

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The Welfare Consequences of Taxing Carbon

The Welfare Consequences of Taxing Carbon. Dale Jorgenson, 2018, Paper, “We find CO2 emissions abatement to be invariant to the chosen recycling scheme. This means that policy makers need not compromise their environmental objectives when designing carbon tax swap options. We also find additional emissions reductions beyond the scope of coverage and points of taxation.Link

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Production and Welfare: Progress in Economic Measurement

Production and Welfare: Progress in Economic Measurement. Dale Jorgenson, 2017, Paper, “While the GDP was intended by its originators as a measure of production, the absence of a measure of welfare in the national accounts has led to widespread misuse of the GDP to proxy welfare. Measures of welfare are needed to appraise the outcomes of changes in economic policies and evaluate the results. Concepts that describe the income distribution, such as poverty and inequality, fall within the scope of welfare rather than production. This paper reviews recent advances in the measurement of production and welfare within the national accounts, primarily in the United States and the international organizations. Expanding the framework beyond the national accounts has led to important innovations in the measurement of both production and welfare.Link

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The World Economy Growth or Stagnation?

The World Economy Growth or Stagnation? Dale Jorgenson, November 2016, Book, “The balance of the world economy is shifting away from the established economies of Europe, Japan, and the USA, towards the emerging economies of Asia, especially India and China. With contributions from some of the world’s leading growth theorists, this book analyses the long-term process of structural change and productivity growth across the world from a unique comparative perspective. Ongoing research from the World KLEMS Initiative is used to comparatively study new sources of growth – including the role of investment in intangible assets, human capital, technology catch-up, and trade in global value chains. This book provides comparisons of industries and economies that are key to analysing the impacts of international trade and investment. This makes it an ideal read for academics and students interested in understanding current patterns of economic growth. It will also be of value to professionals with an interest in the drivers of economic growth and crisis.” Link

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