Found 7 article(s) for author 'Business Cycles'

What a wise US-China trade deal looks like? Full of trade-offs

What a wise US-China trade deal looks like? Full of trade-offs. Kenneth Rogoff, May 8, 2019, Opinion, “Will a possibly imminent US-China trade agreement exacerbate global business cycles or even plant the seeds of the next Asian financial crisis? If the eventual agreement – assuming there is one – forces China to hew indefinitely to its outmoded, overly rigid exchange-rate regime, then the answer may be yes.Link

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Wesley Mitchell’s Business Cycles After 100 Years

Wesley Mitchell’s Business Cycles After 100 Years. Walter A. Friedman, March 6, 2018, Paper, “This paper revisits economist Wesley Mitchell’s classic text, Business Cycles (1913), and assess its impact on economic and political thought in the years prior to the Keynesian Revolution. It describes the key contributions of the book and outlines Mitchell’s career and progression as an economist. It emphasizes the book’s influence on three groups—empirical economists, economic forecasters, and policy makers. For all three, in different ways, Mitchell’s Business Cycles seemed to offer new and exciting possibilities for measuring, predicting, and even controlling economic fluctuations.Link

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A Century of Growth and Improvement

A Century of Growth and Improvement. Benjamin Friedman, May 2016, Paper. “The fact that actual economic advance over time normally means producing and consuming different things is usually left implicit in modern models of economic growth. By contrast, qualitative change–new goods and services, and better versions of what already existed–is central to Robert Gordon’s history of the improvement of American living standards since 1870. A major contribution of his fine-grained account of this experience is to make clear what this improvement has meant, and why it has mattered to ordinary citizens.Link

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Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015

Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015. Carmen Reinhart, January 3, 2016, Paper, “Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data sources. We then document a strong overlap between the ebb and flow of financial capital, the commodity price super-cycle, and sovereign defaults since 1815. The results have implications for today, as many emerging markets are facing a double bust in capital inflows and commodity prices, making them vulnerable to crises …Link

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Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle

Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle. Jeremy Stein, April 20, 2015, Paper. “Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2013, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t–2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t through t+2. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions. That is, when our sentiment proxies indicate that credit risk is aggressively priced, this tends to be followed by a subsequent widening of credit spreads, and the timing of this widening is, in turn, closely tied to the onset of a contraction in economic activity…Link

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Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries

Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries. Diego Comin, October 2013, Article. “Business cycle fluctuations in developed economies (N) tend to have large and persistent effects on developing countries (S). We study the transmission of business cycle fluctuations for developed to developing economies with a two-country asymmetric DSGE model with two features: (i) endogenous and slow diffusion of technologies from the developed to the developing country, and (ii) adjustment costs to investment flows. Consistent with the model we observe that the flow of technologies from N to S co-moves…” Link verified August 21, 2014

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Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence

Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence. Victoria Ivashina, August 23, 2011, Paper. “Theory predicts that there is a close link between bank credit supply and the evolution of the business cycle. Yet fluctuations in bank-loan supply have been hard to quantify in the time- series. While loan issuance falls in recessions, it is not clear if this is due to demand or supply. We address this question by studying firms’ substitution between bank debt and non-bank debt (public bonds) using firm-level data. Any firm that raises new debt must have a positive demand for external funds. Conditional on issuance of new debt, we interpret firm’s switching…” Link

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