Found 3 article(s) for author 'aging'

Aging, Output per capita and Secular Stagnation

Aging, Output per capita and Secular Stagnation. Lawrence Summers, 2018, Paper, “This paper shows that aging has positive effect on output growth per capital at positive interest rates, due to capital deepening. This is consistent with cross country data. This correlation, however, reverses itself if the process goes to far (as in post 2008) and a negative real interest rate is needed to clear the market. In that case, the data shows that aging has negative effect on output growth per capita. This new cross-country correlation is predicted by the secular stagnation hypothesis suggested by Summers (2014). We review the cross-country correlation in the data and highlight the mechanisms in a stripped down two generation OLG model with capital and nominal frictions.Link

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How Japan and the US Can Reduce the Stress of Aging

How Japan and the US Can Reduce the Stress of Aging. Claudia Goldin, July 2016, Paper, “The Japanese are becoming older. Americans are also becoming older. Demographic stress in Japan, measured by the dependency ratio (DR), is currently about 0.64. In the immediate pre-WWII era it was even higher because Japan’s total fertility rate (TFR) was in the 4 to 5 range. As the TFR began to decline in the post-WWII era, the DR fell and hit a nadir of 0.44 in 1990. But further declining fertility and rising life expectancy caused the DR to shoot up after 1995.Link

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