50 percent chance of a US recession by 2020. Lawrence Summers, November 15, 2018, Video, “Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has put the chances of a U.S. recession at 50 percent within the next two years. The economist told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche on Thursday that a slowdown in growth was a “near certainty” before adding “the recession risk is nearly 50 percent over the next two years, maybe slightly less.Link