Found 444 article(s) in category 'Trade Policy'

Trump is missing the big picture on the economy

Trump is missing the big picture on the economy. Lawrence Summers, March 24, 2020, Opinion, “As an economist, I am normally enthusiastic when presidents or other political leaders emphasize the economic aspect of public policy issues. I am all for economic growth, cost benefit analyses, trade agreements, more flexible markets and prudent deregulation. Yet I am appalled by President Trump’s invocation of economic arguments as a basis for overriding the judgments of public health experts about battling the coronavirus pandemic.Link

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The Paradox of Corporate Globalization: Disembedding and Reembedding Governing Norms

The Paradox of Corporate Globalization: Disembedding and Reembedding Governing Norms. John Ruggie, 2020, Paper, “The political economy of the post-World War II West was shaped by normative understandings and institutional arrangements that scholars describe as embedded liberalism. It coupled governments’ commitments to progressively liberalize trade as well as establish free and stable exchange rates with maintaining adequate domestic policy space, including capital controls, to provide social investments and safety nets, and to buffer economically and socially dislocating effects of liberalization. (Ruggie, 1982). Although largely an Anglo-American design it also captured core interests and concerns of European social democracies and social market economies and formed the basis of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the Articles of Agreement of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In the industrialized world, this grand bargain led to one of the longest and most equitable periods of economic expansion in history.Link

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Will coronavirus trigger a global recession?

Will coronavirus trigger a global recession? Jeffrey Frankel, February 26, 2020, Opinion, “At the start of this year, things seemed to be looking up for the global economy. True, growth had slowed a bit in 2019: from 2.9% to 2.3% in the US and from 3.6% to 2.9% globally. Still, there had been no recession and as recently as January, the International Monetary Fund projected a global growth rebound in 2020. The new coronavirus, Covid-19, has changed all of that.Link

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The impacts of the U.S. – China trade war

The impacts of the U.S. – China trade war. Gordon Hanson, February 5, 2020, Paper, “The trade war has received an enormous amount of attention. Its impacts today have been limited because the U.S. and China have been a bit restrained. Lots of firms have gotten exceptions to these tariffs and there have been lots of delays in their full implementation. It’s also been the case that U.S. firms have been delaying making adjustments to their global value chains. What has been striking is that the impact of tariffs on U.S. prices has been one-for-one. These tariffs are unlikely to have a significant impact on manufacturing employment in the United States: the job loss that we observed as a consequence of import competition from China came primarily from factory closure, furthermore U.S. tariffs didn’t target all U.S. imports. They targeted imports from China. Looking forward, to the extent the trade war is dampening GDP growth in China, it could happen political consequences at home. As for us, this is a defining moment in which we’re going to see whether the U.S. is willing to maintain its commitments to more open borders.Link

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On the Effects of Linking Cap-and-Trade Systems for CO2 Emissions

On the Effects of Linking Cap-and-Trade Systems for CO2 Emissions. Martin Weitzman, 2020, Paper, “Linkage of national cap-and-trade systems is typically advocated by economists on a general analogy with the beneficial linkage of free-trade areas and on the specific grounds that linkage will ensure cost effectiveness among the linked jurisdictions. The paper analyses the less obvious effects of linkage with the bottom–up approach of the Paris Agreement where each country sets its nationally determined contribution for its own carbon dioxide…Link

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A Roadmap for Investment Promotion and Export Diversification: The Case of Jordan

A Roadmap for Investment Promotion and Export Diversification: The Case of Jordan. Ricardo Hausmann, Miguel Angel Santos, December 2019, Paper, “Jordan faces a number of pressing economic challenges: low growth, high unemployment, rising debt levels, and continued vulnerability to regional shocks. After a decade of fast economic growth, the economy decelerated with the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09. From then onwards, various external shocks have thrown its economy out of balance and prolonged the slowdown for over a decade now. Conflicts in neighboring countries have led to reduced demand from key export markets and cut off important trade routes. Foreign direct investment, which averaged 12.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) between 2003-2009, fell to 5.1% of GDP over the 2010-2017. Regional conflicts have interrupted the supply of gas from Egypt – forcing Jordan to import oil at a time of record prices, had a negative impact on tourism, and also provoked a massive influx of migrants and refugees. Failure to cope with 50.4% population growth between led to nine consecutive years (2008-2017) of negative growth rates in GDP per capita, resulting in a cumulative loss of 14.0% over the past decade (2009-2018). Debt to GDP ratios, which were at 55% by the end of 2009, have skyrocketed to 94%.Link

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Carbon Taxes vs. Cap and Trade: Theory and Practice

Carbon Taxes vs. Cap and Trade: Theory and Practice. Robert Stavins, November 2019, Paper, “There is widespread agreement among economists – and a diverse set of other policy analysts – that, at least in the long run, an economy-wide carbon-pricing system will be an essential element of any national policy that can achieve meaningful reductions of CO2 emissions costeffectively in the United States and many other countries. There is less agreement, however, among economists and others in the policy community regarding the choice of specific carbon-pricing policy instrument, with some supporting carbon taxes and others favoring cap-and-trade mechanisms. How do the two major approaches to carbon pricing compare on relevant dimensions, including but not limited to efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and distributional equity? This paper addresses this question by drawing on theories of policy instrument choice pertaining to the attributes – or merits – of the instruments. The paper also draws on relevant empirical evidence. It concludes with a look at the path ahead.Link

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The Case for Old-Fashioned Tariff Cuts

The Case for Old-Fashioned Tariff Cuts. Jeffrey Frankel, November 27, 2019, Opinion, “Had governments stood still on trade policy over the last three years, the world would be a lot better off than it is now. Today, policymakers could do worse than return to the post-World War II formula of negotiating the reciprocal elimination of tariffs.Link

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China’s economic weakness could drive ‘problematic’ nationalism

China’s economic weakness could drive ‘problematic’ nationalism. Lawrence Summers, November 8, 2019 , Video, “Weakness of the Chinese economy could generate “a certain truculence in its international relations” by driving nationalism in the country and “scapegoating of foreigners”, according to economist Larry Summers. The former World Bank chief economist and senior US Treasury Department official, also said de-escalation of trade tensions between the United States and China is not yet an indication for a substantial deal despite the progress.Summers, who has advised two past US presidents, spoke with the South China Morning Post on November 6, 2019, during Credit Suisse’s 10th China Investment Conference in Shenzhen.Link

 

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How to Get Past the US-China Trade War

How to Get Past the US-China Trade War. Dani Rodrik, November 7, 2019, Opinion, “China and the United States, like all other countries, should be able to maintain their own economic model. But international trade rules should prohibit national governments from adopting “beggar-thy-neighbor” policies that provide domestic benefits only by imposing costs on trade partners.Link

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