Found 534 article(s) in category 'Monetary Policy'

The left’s embrace of modern monetary theory is a recipe for disaster

The left’s embrace of modern monetary theory is a recipe for disaster. Lawrence Summers, March 4, 2019, Opinion, “We’ve seen this movie before. There is widespread frustration with the performance of the economy. Traditional policy approaches are not delivering hoped-for results. A relatively unpopular president is loathed to an unusual extent by a frustrated opposition party that lost the previous presidential election while running a pillar of its establishment. And altered economic conditions have led to the development of new economic ideas that reflect a significant break with previous orthodoxy.Link

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Modern Monetary Nonsense

Modern Monetary Nonsense. Kenneth Rogoff, March 4, 2019, Opinion, “A number of leading progressive US politicians advocate using the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet to fund expansive new government programs. Although their arguments have a grain of truth, they also rest on some fundamental misconceptions, and could have unpredictable and potentially serious consequences.Link

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Immigration and Preferences for Redistribution in Europe

Immigration and Preferences for Redistribution in Europe. Alberto Alesina, February 2019, Paper, “We examine the relationship between immigration and attitudes toward redistribution using a newly assembled data set of immigrant stocks for 140 regions of 16 Western European countries. Exploiting within-country variations in the share of immigrants at the regional level, we find that native respondents display lower support for redistribution when the share of immigrants in their residence region is higher. This negative association is driven by regions of countries with relatively large Welfare States and by respondents at the center or at the right of the political spectrum. The effects are also stronger when immigrants originate from Middle-Eastern countries, are less skilled than natives, and experience more residential segregation. These results are unlikely to be driven by immigrants’ endogenous location choices.Link

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Jeremy Stein on income inequality, monetary policy and the bond market, and preventing the next financial crisis

Jeremy Stein on income inequality, monetary policy and the bond market, and preventing the next financial crisis February 2019. GrowthPolicy’s Devjani Roy interviewed Jeremy Stein, the Moise Y. Safra Professor of Economics and Chairman of the Department of Economics at Harvard University, on income inequality, monetary policy and the bond market, and preventing the next […]

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Trend, Seasonal, and Sectoral Inflation in the Euro Area

Trend, Seasonal, and Sectoral Inflation in the Euro Area. James Stock, January 27, 2019, Paper, “An unobserved components model with stochastic volatility is used to decompose aggregate Euro area HICP inflation into a trend, seasonal and irregular components. Estimates of the components based only on aggregate data are imprecise: the width of 68% error bands for the seasonally adjusted value of aggregate inflation is 1.0 percentage points in the final quarter of the sample. Estimates are more precise using a multivariate model for a 13-sector decomposition of aggregate inflation, which yields a corresponding error band that is roughly 40% narrower. Trend inflation exhibited substantial variability during the 2001-2018 period and this variability closely mirrored variation in real activity.Link

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Who’s Afraid of Budget Deficits?

Who’s Afraid of Budget Deficits? Jason Furman, Lawrence Summers, January 27, 2019, Opinion, “The United States’ annual budget deficit is set to reach nearly $1 trillion this year, more than four percent of GDP and up from $585 billion in 2016. As a result of the continuing shortfall, over the next decade, the national debt—the total amount owed by the U.S. government—is projected to balloon from its current level of 78 percent of GDP to 105 percent of GDP. Such huge amounts of debt are unprecedented for the United States during a time of economic prosperity.Link

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Do Tax Cuts Produce More Einsteins? The Impact of Financial Incentives vs. Exposure to Innovation on the Supply of Inventors

Do Tax Cuts Produce More Einsteins? The Impact of Financial Incentives vs. Exposure to Innovation on the Supply of Inventors. Raj Chetty, January 2019, Paper, “Many countries provide financial incentives to spur innovation, ranging from tax incentives to research and development grants. In this paper, we study how such financial incentives affect individuals’ decisions to pursue careers in innovation. We _first present empirical evidence on inventors’ career trajectories and income distributions using de-identified data on 1.2 million inventors from patent records linked to tax records in the U.S. We find that the private returns to innovation are extremely skewed – with the top 1% of inventors collecting more than 22% of total inventors’ income – and are highly correlated with their social impact, as measured by citations. Inventors tend to have their most impactful innovations around age 40 and their incomes rise rapidly just before they have high-impact patents. We then build a stylized model of inventor career choice that matches these facts as well as recent evidence that childhood exposure to innovation plays a critical role in determining whether individuals become inventors.Link

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The Euro’s First 20 Years

The Euro’s First 20 Years. Jeffrey Frankel, January 25, 2019, Opinion, “According to public opinion polls, 20 years after its introduction, the euro is highly popular, with 64% of eurozone citizens supporting the common currency. This offers hope that, if the eurozone’s leaders can learn from past mistakes, the monetary union will survive and even thrive in the future.Link

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Rogoff Says World Lacks an `A-Team’ to Deal With a New Financial Crisis

Rogoff Says World Lacks an `A-Team’ to Deal With a New Financial Crisis. Kenneth Rogoff, January 23, 2019, Video, “Harvard Professor Kenneth Rogoff discusses the U.S. government shutdown and the global financial industry’s preparedness for a crisis. He also discusses Brexit and China’s slowdown at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, on “Bloomberg Surveillance.” Link

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