Found 605 article(s) in category 'Monetary Policy'

Why Governments Should Not Wait for Godot

Why Governments Should Not Wait for Godot. Ricardo Hausmann, December 31, 2019, Opinion, “To ensure that anticipated foreign investment actually arrives, governments need organizational capabilities that go beyond Adam Smith’s maxim that they must do no more than ensure “peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice.” They need to do at least three additional things.Link

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The Impact of Intranational Trade Barriers on Exports: Evidence from a Nationwide VAT Rebate Reform in China

The Impact of Intranational Trade Barriers on Exports: Evidence from a Nationwide VAT Rebate Reform in China. Jie Bai, December 2019, Paper, “It is well known that various forms of non-tariff trade barriers exist within a country. Empirically, it is difficult to measure these barriers as they can take many forms. We take advantage of a nationwide VAT rebate policy reform in China as a natural experiment to identify the existence of these intranational barriers due to local protectionism and study the impact on exports and exporting firms. As a result of shifting tax rebate burden, the reform leads to a greater incentive of the provincial governments to block the domestic flow of non-local goods to local export intermediaries. We develop an open-economy heterogenous firm model that incorporates multiple domestic regions and multiple exporting technologies, including the intermediary sector. Consistent with the model’s predictions, we find that rising local protectionism leads to a reduction in interprovincial trade, more “inward-looking” sourcing behavior of local intermediaries, and a reduction in manufacturing exports. Analysis using micro firm-level data further shows that private companies with greater baseline reliance on export intermediaries are more adversely affected.Link

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Six Tax-Based Ways to Tackle US Inequality

Six Tax-Based Ways to Tackle US Inequality. Jeffery Frankel, December 17, 2019, Opinion, “Some of the leading candidates for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination have proposed radical measures to reduce inequality, such as a wealth tax. But there are many other progressive tax policies that would be both easier to enforce and more likely to get a Democratic candidate elected.Link

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Taxes and the macro economy

Taxes and the macro economy. Robert Barro, December 17, 2019, Paper, “My research with Furman (2018) assessed the 2017 U.S. tax reform and concluded that economic growth would be boosted by about 1 percent per year for 2018-19 and to a lesser extent for the following eight years. This forecast accorded well with realizations through the first quarter of 2019, but subsequent growth is slower, likely due to adverse effects from the ongoing trade war. Extensions from the previous research consider effects from businesses’ choices of legal form between corporate and pass-through status. Corporate form conveys benefits from perpetual legal identity, limited liability, potential for public trading of shares, and ability to retain earnings. However, legal changes have enhanced pass-through alternatives, for example, through the invention of the S-corporation in 1958 and the improved legal status of LLCs (limited liability companies) at the end of the 1980s. Corporate form is subject to a time varying tax wedge, which offsets the productivity benefits. In a theoretical framework, with a distribution of firms’ productivities associated with corporate and pass-through status, the tax wedge determines the fraction of firms that opt for corporate status, the level of economywide output (productivity), and the share of output generated by corporations. This framework underlies the empirical analysis of corporate shares of business economic activity. Long-difference regressions for 1968-2013 show that a higher tax wedge reduces the corporate share of gross assets. The corporate share also exhibits downward trends, likely reflecting underlying legal changes.” Link

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Public borrowing is cheap but ramping up debt is not without risk

Public borrowing is cheap but ramping up debt is not without risk. Kenneth Rogoff, December 9, 2019, Opinion, “With interest rates on government debt at multi-decade lows, a number of leading economists have argued that almost every advanced economy can allow debt to drift up towards Japanese levels (over 150% of GDP even by the most conservative measure) without any great concern about long-term consequences. Advocates of much higher debt might be right, but they tend to downplay or ignore everything that can go wrong.Link

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Why Countries Should Tax Global Income

Why Countries Should Tax Global Income. Ricardo Hausmann, December 4, 2019, Opinion, “More inclusive global growth in a world with free capital mobility does not require a “global” government that taxes and redistributes, but it does require global taxation and tax cooperation. Countries should be free to set their own taxes, but they should be required to share tax-relevant information.Link

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Shrinking the Tax Gap: Approaches and Revenue Potential

Shrinking the Tax Gap: Approaches and Revenue Potential. Lawrence Summers, November 2019, Paper, “Between 2020 and 2029, the IRS will fail to collect nearly $7.5 trillion of taxes it is due. It is not possible to calculate with precision how much of this “tax gap” could be collected. This paper offers a naïve approach. The analysis suggests that with feasible changes in policy, the IRS could aspire to shrink the tax gap by around 15 percent in the next decade—generating over $1 trillion in additional revenue by performing more audits (especially of high-income earners), increasing information reporting requirements, and investing in information technology. These investments will increase efficiency and are likely to be very progressive.Link

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A GILTI High-Tax Exclusion Election Would Erode the U.S. Tax Base

A GILTI High-Tax Exclusion Election Would Erode the U.S. Tax Base. Stephen Shay, November 18, 2019, Paper, “This article responds to the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking under Sections 958 and 951A published in the Federal Register on June 21, 2019 (the “Proposed Regulations”).1 The proposed expansion of the high tax election should not be adopted for the reasons set out in this article, including most importantly that the statute does not provide a basis for the interpretation proposed to be adopted.Link

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A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premiums and Exchange Rates

A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premiums and Exchange Rates. Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson, Jeremy Stein, Adi Sunderam. 2019, Paper, “We develop a model in which risk-averse, specialized bond investors must be paid to absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, our model naturally links the predictability of long-term bond returns to the predictability of foreign exchange returns. Specifically, a shift in the net supply of long-term bonds in one currency influences bond term premiums in both currencies as well as the foreign exchange rate between the two currencies. Our model matches several important empirical patterns, including the co-movement between exchange rates and bond term premiums as well as the finding that central banks’ quantitative easing policies impact not only local-currency long-term yields, but also foreign exchange rates. We also show that this quantity-driven approach provides a unified account explaining both why foreign exchange tends to outperform when the foreign interest rates exceed domestic rates and why long-term bonds tend to outperform when the yield curve is steep.Link

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Yes, our tax system needs reform. Let’s start with this first step

Yes, our tax system needs reform. Let’s start with this first step. Lawrence Summers, November 17, 2019, Opinion, “While there’s plenty of disagreement about how the money should be used, almost everyone involved in public-policy debates agrees that it would be good if the federal government could collect more revenue without raising tax rates or reducing tax deductions or credits.Link

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