Found 431 article(s) in category 'Monetary Policy'

We are even more convinced that thousands will die prematurely if the ACA is repealed

We are even more convinced that thousands will die prematurely if the ACA is repealed. Lawrence Summers, December 12, 2017, Opinion, “On Monday, The Washington Post published an article by Casey Mulligan and Tomas Philipson attacking Lawrence Summers’s statement that “thousands” of individuals would die if the Republican tax bill became law. Summers reached his estimate after carefully reviewing the literature and consulting with health economists Jonathan Gruber and Mulligan and Philipson’s University of Chicago colleague Dean Kate Baicker, who has published a number of influential studies on the effect of health insurance on health.Link

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The Economy is on a Sugar High, and Tax Cuts Won’t Help

The Economy is on a Sugar High, and Tax Cuts Won’t Help. Lawrence Summers, December 10, 2017, Opinion, “Lawrence H. Summers is a professor at and past president of Harvard University. He was treasury secretary from 1999 to 2001 and an economic adviser to President Barack Obama from 2009 through 2010.  The approaching end of President Trump’s first year in office, another strong employment report and a still-strong stock market make it appropriate to revisit my year-old judgment that the economy is enjoying a “sugar high.” Unfortunately, the best available evidence suggests that signs of current market and economic strength are largely unrelated to government policy, that the drivers of this year’s economic strength are likely transient and that the structural foundation of the U.S. economy is weakening. Sugar high remains the right diagnosis, and tax cuts are very much the wrong prescription.Link

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Surveillance: Feldstein Sees Capital Inflows if Tax Bill Passes

Surveillance: Feldstein Sees Capital Inflows if Tax Bill Passes. Martin Feldstein, December 6, 2017, Audio, “Martin Feldstein, Harvard University George F. Baker Professor of Economics, says now is the time for tax reform because the politics are right. Henry Olsen, EPPC Senior Fellow, says President Trump needs to recover his populist mojo. Matt Hornbach, Morgan Stanley Global Head of Interest Rates Strategy, says it’s time for the next bond market phase. Michael Chui, McKinsey & Co. Senior Fellow, says there is enough work for people to do, even with the increased use of robots.Link

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Largest Mass. Companies Are Mostly Silent On GOP Tax Plans

Largest Mass. Companies Are Mostly Silent On GOP Tax Plans. Mihir Desai, December 6, 2017, Audio, “Corporations are the cornerstone of both the House and Senate versions of the tax overhaul. Both bills propose deep cuts in the corporate tax rate — from 35 percent to 20 percent. The bills also call for a territorial tax system to replace the current worldwide tax system, in which multinational corporations with headquarters in the United States are required to pay the U.S. tax rate if they want to bring profits back into the country.Link

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Yes, the Senate GOP tax plan would cause ‘thousands’ to die

Yes, the Senate GOP tax plan would cause ‘thousands’ to die. Lawrence Summers, December 3, 2017, Opinion, “I suggested on Friday when it became clear that the tax bill would pass that “thousands would die.” In light of my sharp criticism of other economists’ claims regarding the legislation, some have asked whether my statement is well grounded. I think it is, but this should be open to debate.Link

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Dear colleagues, please explain your letter to Steven Mnuchin

Dear colleagues, please explain your letter to Steven Mnuchin. Lawrence Summers, Jason Furman, November 28, 2017, Opinion, “You recently wrote an open letter to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin quantifying the economic impact of tax reform. We are interested in and surprised by your analysis. We share your commitment to the idea that well-designed tax reform can make the economy stronger and that careful economic analysis is essential. And we know that you all share our belief that such careful analysis is well served by discussion and debate of these issues that is at least as frank and vigorous as what we are all accustomed to in the average economics seminar. To that end, we think it would be useful to lay out some of the questions we have about your analysis:Link

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Cutting US Corporate Tax Is Worth the Cost

Cutting US Corporate Tax Is Worth the Cost. Martin Feldstein, November 27, 2017, Opinion, “One of the main criticisms leveled at congressional Republicans’ proposal to cut corporate taxes is that a higher budget deficit would amount to an undesirable fiscal stimulus. But with monetary policy turning contractionary, and most experts predicting a US recession in the next five years, stimulus should be welcomed.Link

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Reagan’s Tax Reforms Revisited

Reagan’s Tax Reforms Revisited. Jeffrey Frankel, November 24, 2017, Opinion, “The US has plenty of experience with irresponsible tax cuts. Yet its leaders seem not to have learned their lesson. Should Republicans secure the legislative victory they so desire, the entire country – with the exception, perhaps, of the wealthiest few – will lose.Link

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Tax Reform – Process Failures, Loopholes and Wealth Windfalls

Tax Reform – Process Failures, Loopholes and Wealth Windfalls. Stephen Shay, November 21, 2017, Paper, “The GOP drive for a political victory on tax reform will come at a high cost if it succeeds. The extreme reduction in capital taxation will result in windfall wealth transfers to the already wealthy. Deficit expanding tax legislation will raise pressure for higher interest rates that hinder rather than enhance economic growth. Rushed tax legislation will be rife with undiscovered loopholes that increase the windfalls and scope of the deficit. Instead of the GOP-promised economic growth and benefits for the middle class there will be increased deficits and/or paygo reductions in Medicare, defense and discretionary spending.Link

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What lurks beneath the Euro

What lurks beneath the Euro. Carmen Reinhart, November 16, 2017, Opinion, “Earlier this year, the consensus among economists was that the United States would outstrip its advanced-economy rivals. The expected spurt in U.S. growth would be driven by the economic stimulus package described in President Donald Trump’s election campaign. But instead, the most notable positive economic news from the developed countries in 2017 has been coming from Europe.Link

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