Found 576 article(s) in category 'Monetary Policy'

Launch a Pre-Emptive Strike Against Recession

Launch a Pre-Emptive Strike Against Recession. Jason Furman, September 5, 2019, Opinion, “President Trump was right to set aside premature plans for fiscal stimulus last month. Based on the current economic situation, stimulus isn’t yet warranted—but it may be soon. Given the uncertainty, Congress should pass a law immediately that would automatically trigger stimulus if the labor market deteriorates, with unemployment rising rapidly. The package should include not only tax cuts but also relief for states, as well as extra…Link

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On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World

On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World. Lawrence Summers, August 2019, Paper, “We argue that the economy of the industrialized world taken as a whole is currently – and for the foreseeable future will remain – highly prone to secular stagnation. But for extraordinary fiscal policies, real interest rates would have fallen much more and be far below their current slightly negative level, current and prospective inflation would be further short of the two percent target levels and past and future economic recoveries would be even more sluggish. We start by arguing that, contrary to current practice, neutral real interest rates are best estimated for the bloc of all industrial economies given capital mobility between them and relatively limited fluctuations in their aggregated current account. We show, using standard econometric procedures and looking at direct market indicators of prospective real rates, that neutral real interest rates have declined by at least 300 basis points over the last generation. We argue that these secular movements are in larger part a reflection of changes in saving and investment propensities rather than the safety and liquidity properties of Treasury instruments. We highlight the observation that levels of government debt, the extent of pay-as-you-go old age pensions and the insurance value of government healthcare programs have all ceteris paribus operated to raise neutral real rates. Using estimates drawn from the literature, as well as two general equilibrium models emphasizing respectively life-cycle heterogeneity and individual uncertainty, we suggest that the “private sector neutral real rate” may have declined by as much as 700 basis points since the 1970s.Link

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Whither Central Banking?

Whither Central Banking? Lawrence Summers, August 23, 2019, Opinion, “In an environment of secular stagnation in the developed economies, central bankers’ ingenuity in loosening monetary policy is exactly what is not needed. What is needed are admissions of impotence, in order to spur efforts by governments to promote demand through fiscal policies and other means.Link

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Larry Summers Says Central Bankers Confront a ‘Black Hole’ for Policy

Larry Summers Says Central Bankers Confront a ‘Black Hole’ for Policy. Lawrence Summers, August 22, 2019, Video, “Harvard University economist Lawrence Summers warned central bankers that they are staring at “black hole monetary economics” where small changes in interest rates and even more aggressive strategies do little to solve demand shortfalls.Link

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The currency manipulation game is afoot – but that’s better than a trade war

The currency manipulation game is afoot – but that’s better than a trade war. Jeffrey Frankel, August 13, 2019, Opinion, “The trade war between the United States and China is heating up again, with U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly announcing plans to impose a 10-per-cent tariff on the US$300-billion worth of imports from China that he had so far left untouched. The Chinese authorities then allowed their currency, the renminbi, to fall below the symbolic threshold of seven yuan for every U.S. dollar. The Trump administration promptly responded by naming China a “currency manipulator” – the first time the U.S. had done that to any country in 25 years. Pundits declared a currency war, and investors immediately sent global stock markets lower.Link

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The Currency Manipulation Game

The Currency Manipulation Game. Jeffrey Frankel, August 9, 2019, Opinion, “The United States government’s assertion that the recent depreciation of the renminbi amounts to currency manipulation is not true. It would be more correct to say that the Chinese authorities gave in to market pressure – the immediate source of which was US President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on Chinese goods.Link

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Tax Administration vs. Tax Rates: Evidence from Corporate Taxation in Indonesia

Tax Administration vs. Tax Rates: Evidence from Corporate Taxation in Indonesia. Rema Hanna, August 2019, Paper, “Developing countries collect a far lower share of GDP in taxes than richer countries. This paper asks whether changes in tax administration and tax rates can nevertheless raise substantial additional revenue – and if so, which approach is most effective. We study corporate taxation in Indonesia, where the government implemented two reforms that differentially affected firms. First, we show that increasing tax administration intensity by moving the top firms in each region into “Medium-Sized Taxpayer Offices,” with much higher staff-to-taxpayer ratios, more than doubled tax revenue from affected firms over six years, with increasing impacts over time. Second, using non-linear changes to the corporate income tax schedule, we estimate an elasticity of taxable income of 0.59, which implies that the revenue-maximizing rate is almost double the current rate. The increased revenue from improvements in tax administration is equivalent to raising the marginal corporate tax rate on affected firms by about 23 percentage points. We suggest one reason improved tax administration was so effective was that it flattened the relationship between firm size and enforcement, removing the additional “enforcement tax” on large firms. On net, our results suggest that improving tax administration can have significant returns for developing country governments.Link

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Monetary policy spillovers, capital controls and exchange rate flexibility, and the financial channel of exchange rates

Monetary policy spillovers, capital controls and exchange rate flexibility, and the financial channel of exchange rates. Feng Zhu, July 2019, Paper, “We assess the empirical validity of the trilemma (or impossible trinity) in the 2000s for a large sample of advanced and emerging market economies. To do so, we estimate Taylor-rule type monetary policy reaction functions, relating the local policy rate to real-time forecasts of domestic fundamentals, global variables, as well as the base-country policy rate. In the regressions, we explore variations in the sensitivity of local to base-country policy rates across different degrees of exchange rate flexibility and capital controls. We find that the data are in general consistent with the predictions from the trilemma: Both exchange rate flexibility and capital controls reduce the sensitivity of local to base-country policy rates.Link

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