Found 525 article(s) in category 'Monetary Policy'

Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel

Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel. Lawrence Summers, January 2019, Paper, “Following the crisis of 2008, several central banks engaged in a new experiment by setting negative policy rates. Using aggregate and bank level data, we document that deposit rates stopped responding to policy rates once they went negative and that bank lending rates in some cases increased rather than decreased in response to policy rate cuts. Based on the empirical evidence, we construct a macro-model with a banking sector that links together policy rates, deposit rates and lending rates. Once the policy rate turns negative, the usual transmission mechanism of monetary policy through the bank sector breaks down. Moreover, because a negative policy rate reduces bank profits, the total effect on aggregate output can be contractionary. A calibration which matches Swedish bank level data suggests that a policy rate of -0.50 percent increases borrowing rates by 15 basis points and reduces output by 7 basis points.Link

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Risks to the Global Economy in 2019

Risks to the Global Economy in 2019. Kenneth Rogoff, January 11, 2019, Opinion, “Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change. They will include a growth recession in China, a rise in global long-term real interest rates, and a crescendo of populist economic policies.Link

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There Is “Significant Risk” Of Recession

There Is “Significant Risk” Of Recession. Lawrence Summers, January 10, 2019, Video, “There is “significant risk” of a recession in the next two years, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers repeated yesterday on Bloomberg TV. Summers, now an economist at Harvard University, focused his comments on China’s economy, which he warned was “seeing as difficult a moment… as any they’ve had in the last 10 or 20 years.” Link

 

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The business cycle is alive and well

The business cycle is alive and well. James Stock, January 3, 2019, Paper, “Have the dynamic relations among macro variables changed markedly since the financial crisis? A dynamic factor model provides consistent evidence of stability across 248 variables The Great Moderation appears to be ongoing; you cannot reject the hypothesis that the standard deviation of four-quarter GDP growth is the same over 1984–2007 and over 2008–2018. Even so, the apparent slower GDP growth trend implies a substantial probability that a recession may start in the next 2 years, even not adding the risk that some large unprecedented negative event may occur. Because of low interest rates and already-large deficits, the ability of Congress and the Fed to mitigate the effects of a recession are historically constrained.Link

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Monetary Policy, Product Market Competition and Growth

Monetary Policy, Product Market Competition and Growth. Philippe Aghion, Emmanuel Farhi, December 2018, Paper, “In this paper we argue that monetary easing fosters growth more in more credit-constrained environments, and the more so the higher the degree of product market competition. Indeed when competition is low, large rents allow firms to stay on the market and reinvest optimally, no matter how funding conditions change with aggregate conditions. To test this prediction, we use industrylevel and firm-level data from the Euro Area to look at the effects on sectoral growth and firm-level growth of the unexpected drop in long-term government bond yields following the announcement of the Outright Monetary Transactions program (OMT) by the ECB. We find that the monetary policy easing induced by OMT, contributed to raising sectoral (firm-level) growth more in more highly leveraged sectors (firms), and the more so the higher the degree of product market competition in the country (sector).Link

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Cash and the Economy: Evidence from India’s Demonetization

Cash and the Economy: Evidence from India’s Demonetization. Gita Gopinath, Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, December 13, 2018, Paper, “We analyze a unique episode in the history of monetary economics, the 2016 Indian “demonetization.” This policy made 86% of cash in circulation illegal tender overnight, with new notes gradually introduced over the next several months. We present a model of demonetization where agents hold cash both to satisfy a cash-in-advance constraint and for tax evasion purposes. We test the predictions of the model in the cross-section of Indian districts using several novel data sets including: a data set containing the geographic distribution of demonetized and new notes for causal inference; nightlights data and employment surveys to measure economic activity including in the informal sector; debit/credit cards and e-wallet transactions data; and banking data on deposit and credit growth. Districts experiencing more severe demonetization had relative reductions in economic activity, faster adoption of alternative payment technologies, and lower bank credit growth. The cross-sectional responses cumulate to a contraction in employment and nightlights-based output due to demonetization of 2 p.p. and of bank credit of 2 p.p. in 2016Q4 relative to their counterfactual paths, effects which dissipate over the next few months. We use our model to show these cumulated effects are a lower bound for the aggregate effects of demonetization. We conclude that unlike in the cashless limit of new-Keynesian models, in modern India cash serves an essential role in facilitating economic activity.Link

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