Found 486 article(s) in category 'Financial Services'

Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel

Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel. Lawrence Summers, January 2019, Paper, “Following the crisis of 2008, several central banks engaged in a new experiment by setting negative policy rates. Using aggregate and bank level data, we document that deposit rates stopped responding to policy rates once they went negative and that bank lending rates in some cases increased rather than decreased in response to policy rate cuts. Based on the empirical evidence, we construct a macro-model with a banking sector that links together policy rates, deposit rates and lending rates. Once the policy rate turns negative, the usual transmission mechanism of monetary policy through the bank sector breaks down. Moreover, because a negative policy rate reduces bank profits, the total effect on aggregate output can be contractionary. A calibration which matches Swedish bank level data suggests that a policy rate of -0.50 percent increases borrowing rates by 15 basis points and reduces output by 7 basis points.Link

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Risks to the Global Economy in 2019

Risks to the Global Economy in 2019. Kenneth Rogoff, January 11, 2019, Opinion, “Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change. They will include a growth recession in China, a rise in global long-term real interest rates, and a crescendo of populist economic policies.Link

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Diagnostic Bubbles

Diagnostic Bubbles, Andrei Shleifer, December 2018, Paper, “We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and speculation (buying for resale). With diagnostic (but not with rational) expectations, these mechanisms lead to price paths exhibiting three phases: initial underreaction, followed by overshooting (the bubble), and finally a crash. With learning from prices, the model generates price extrapolation as a byproduct of fast moving beliefs about fundamentals, which lasts only as the bubble builds up. When investors speculate, even mild diagnostic distortions generate substantial bubbles.Link

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Stock Market Short-Termism’s Impact

Stock Market Short-Termism’s Impact. Mark Roe, December 2018, Paper, “Stock-market–driven short-termism is crippling the American economy, according to legal, judicial, and media analyses. Firms forgo the R&D they need, cut capital spending, and buy back their own stock so feverishly that they starve themselves of cash. The stock market is the primary cause: directors and executives cannot manage for the long term when their shareholders furiously trade their company’s stock, they cannot make long-term investments when stockholders demand to see profits on this quarter’s financial statements, they cannot even strategize about the long term when shareholder activists demand immediate results, and they cannot keep the cash to invest in their future when stock market pressure drains away that cash in stock buybacks. This doomsday version of the stock-market–driven short-termism argument entails economy-wide predictions that have not been well-examined for their severity and accuracy.Link

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The Biggest Emerging Market Debt Problem Is in America

The Biggest Emerging Market Debt Problem Is in America. Carmen Reinhart, December 20, 2018, Opinion, “A decade after the subprime bubble burst, a new one seems to be taking its place in the market for corporate collateralized loan obligations. A world economy geared toward increasing the supply of financial assets has hooked market participants and policymakers alike into a global game of Whac-A-Mole.Link

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Stock Market Distress Signal: How Low-Cost Index Funds Are Taking Over

Stock Market Distress Signal: How Low-Cost Index Funds Are Taking Over. John Coates, December 12, 2018, “Sounding the alarm on index funds. How their runaway success has reshaped power and accountability in boardrooms and on Wall Street. Guests – John Coates, professor of law and economics at Harvard Law School where he teaches corporate governance, mergers and acquisitions and finance. Member of the Investor Advisory Committee of the Securities and Exchanges Commission. (@jciv) Link

 

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Index Funds and the Future of Corporate Governance: Theory, Evidence, and Policy

Index Funds and the Future of Corporate Governance: Theory, Evidence, and Policy. Lucian Bebchuk, November 28, 2018, Opinion, “Index funds own an increasingly large proportion of American public companies, currently more than one fifth and steadily growing. Understanding the stewardship decisions of index fund managers—how they monitor, vote, and engage with their portfolio companies—is critical for corporate law scholarship. In a study that we recently placed on SSRN—Index Funds and the Future of Corporate Governance: Theory, Evidence and Policy—we seek to contribute to such understanding by providing a comprehensive theoretical, empirical, and policy analysis of index fund stewardship.Link

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Uber Prepares to Go Public, and China’s Social Credit System

Uber Prepares to Go Public, and China’s Social Credit System. Youngme Moon, Mihir Desai, Felix Oberholzer-Gee, November 14, 2018, Audio, “Youngme Moon, Mihir Desai, and Felix Oberholzer-Gee discuss how much Uber is worth as it prepares to go public, before debating China’s controversial Social Credit system. They also share their After Hours picks for the week.Link

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