Found 1720 article(s) in category 'Q1: Economic Growth'

Why does Jerome Powell have a haunted look?

Why does Jerome Powell have a haunted look? Carmen Reinhart, September 23, 2019, Opinion, “Once a year, the leadership of both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) go to the mountains for policy enlightenment. The ECB conducts a forum every June in Sintra, a town in the foothills of the eponymous Portuguese mountain range.  And the Fed convenes in late August in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the Kansas City branch’s economic symposium. In retrospect, this year’s….Link

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‘Not much’: What macroeconomic data say about the impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

‘Not much’: What macroeconomic data say about the impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Jason Furman, September 18, 2019, Opinion, “What does macroeconomic data since the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) tell us about its impact on business investment and thus the future growth of the US economy? Not much. The first sense in which the data tell us “not much” is quite literal. The TCJA does not appear to have had nearly as much impact as many of its biggest cheerleaders expected and thought they saw in the data in the initial months after it passed. We now have six quarters of data since the law passed, and gross domestic product (GDP) has grown at an annualized rate of 2.5 percent in that period. That is a slight slowdown from the 2.6 percent annual rate in the six quarters leading up to the law’s passage, as shown in the chart below. This reflects the slowdown across consumption, business investment, and residential investment—which was only partly offset by the increase in government spending.Link

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Jerome Powell’s Dilemma

Jerome Powell’s Dilemma. Carmen Reinhart, September 18, 2019, Opinion, “There is a reason that the US Federal Reserve chair often has a haunted look. Probably to his deep and never-to-be-expressed frustration, the Fed is setting monetary policy in a way that increases the likelihood that President Donald Trump will be reelected next year.Link

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Rear Visibility and Some Unresolved Problems for Economic Analysis

Rear Visibility and Some Unresolved Problems for Economic Analysis. Cass Sunstein, September 12, 2019, Paper, “In 2014, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration finalized its rear visibility regulation, which requires cameras in all new vehicles, with the goal of allowing drivers to see what is behind them and thus reducing backover accidents. In 2018, the Trump administration embraced the regulation. The rear visibility rule raises numerous puzzles. First: Congress’ grant of authority was essentially standardless – perhaps the most open-ended in all of federal regulatory law. Second: It is not easy to identify a market failure to justify the regulation. Third: The monetized costs of the regulation greatly exceeded the monetized benefits, and yet on welfare grounds, the regulation can plausibly be counted as a significant success. Rearview cameras produce a set of benefits that are hard to quantify, including increased ease of driving, and those benefits might have been made a part of “breakeven analysis,” accompanying standard cost-benefit analysis.Link

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Reviewing the Climate Crisis Town Hall

Reviewing the Climate Crisis Town Hall. Joseph Aldy, September 8, 2019, Audio, “Host Steve Curwood sits down with Joe Aldy, economist and Professor of Public Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School, to take a look at carbon pricing, a just transition for fossil fuel workers, and other key topics from the climate crisis town hall.Link


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Trump’s Mercantilist Mess

Trump’s Mercantilist Mess. Robert Barro, September 5, 2019, Opinion, “When US President Donald Trump boasted that trade wars are “easy to win” in March 2018, it was convenient to dismiss the remark as a rhetorical flourish. Yet it is now clear that Trump meant it, because he genuinely believes the bizarre and anachronistic macroeconomic theories underlying his approach.Link

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Launch a Pre-Emptive Strike Against Recession

Launch a Pre-Emptive Strike Against Recession. Jason Furman, September 5, 2019, Opinion, “President Trump was right to set aside premature plans for fiscal stimulus last month. Based on the current economic situation, stimulus isn’t yet warranted—but it may be soon. Given the uncertainty, Congress should pass a law immediately that would automatically trigger stimulus if the labor market deteriorates, with unemployment rising rapidly. The package should include not only tax cuts but also relief for states, as well as extra…Link

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If Business Roundtable CEOs are serious about reform, here’s what they should do

If Business Roundtable CEOs are serious about reform, here’s what they should do. Lawrence Summers, September 2, 2019, Opinion, “The Business Roundtable recently announced a major policy change declaring that the purpose of a corporation is not just to serve shareholders (its official position since 1997) but “to create value for all our stakeholders.” At a time of considerable disillusionment with U.S. capitalism, this is a significant statement that could signal meaningful change in the operation of the American economy. Certainly the recognition by leading chief executives that they need to look beyond the narrow metric of their stock price is to be welcomed.Link

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