Found 1786 article(s) in category 'Q1: Economic Growth'

Three Epochs of Oil

Three Epochs of Oil. Kenneth Rogoff, April 2009, Paper. “We test for changes in price behavior in the longest crude oil price series available (1861-2008). We find strong evidence for changes in persistence and in volatility of price across three well defined periods. We argue that historically, the real price of oil has tended to be highly persistent and volatile whenever rapid industrialization in a major world economy coincided with uncertainty regarding access to supply. We present a modified commodity storage model that fully incorporates demand, and further can accommodate both transitory and permanent shocks…” Link

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Growth Accounting within the International Comparison Program

Growth Accounting within the International Comparison Program. Dale Jorgenson, April 2009, Paper. “This paper analyzes the sources of economic growth of the world economy, seven regions, and fourteen major economies during three periods – 1989-1995, 1995-2000, and 2000- 2006. We allocate the growth of world output, as measured in the World Bank’s International Comparison Program, between input growth and productivity. We find, surprisingly, that input growth greatly predominates! Moreover, except for the industrialized economies, differences in per capita output levels are explained by differences in per capita input, rather...” Link

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The Wealth of Cities: Agglomeration Economies and Spatial Equilibrium in the United States

The Wealth of Cities: Agglomeration Economies and Spatial Equilibrium in the United States. Edward Glaeser, March 2009, Paper. “Empirical research on cities starts with a spatial equilibrium condition: workers and firms are assumed to be indifferent across space. This condition implies that research on cities is different from research on countries, and that work on places within countries needs to consider population, income and housing prices simultaneously. Housing supply elasticity will determine whether urban success shows up in more people or higher incomes. Urban economists generally…” May require purchase or user account. Link

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Credit Constraints, Cyclical Fiscal Policy and Industry Growth

Credit Constraints, Cyclical Fiscal Policy and Industry Growth. Philippe Aghion, March 2009, Paper. “This paper evaluates whether the cyclical pattern of fiscal policy can affect growth. We first build a simple endogenous growth model where entrepreneurs can invest either in short-run projects or in long-term growth enhancing projects. Long-term projects involve a liquidity risk which credit constrained firms try to overcome by borrowing on the basis of their short-run profits. By increasing firms’ market size in recessions, a countercyclical fiscal policy will boost investment in productivity-enhancing long-term…” Link

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The Causal Impact of Education on Economic Growth: Evidence from U.S.

The Causal Impact of Education on Economic Growth: Evidence from U.S. Philippe Aghion, March 2009, Paper. “Should countries or regions (generically, “states”) invest more in education to promote economic growth? Policy makers often assert that if their state spends more on educating its population, incomes will grow sufficiently to more than recover the investment. Economists and others have proposed many channels through which education may affect growth–not merely the private returns to individuals’ greater human capital but also a variety of externalities…” Link

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When Does Domestic Saving Matter for Economic Growth?

When Does Domestic Saving Matter for Economic Growth? Philippe Aghion and Diego Comin, January 4, 2009, Paper. “Can a country grow faster by saving more? We address this question both theoretically and empirically. In our theoretical model, growth results from innovations that allow local sectors to catch up with frontier technology. In poor countries, catching up requires the cooperation of a foreign investor who is familiar with the frontier technology and a domestic entrepreneur who is familiar with local conditions…” Link

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The Aftermath of Financial Crises

The Aftermath of Financial Crises. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, 2009, Paper. “A year ago, we presented a historical analysis comparing the run-up to the 2007 US subprime financial crisis with the antecedents of other banking crises in advanced economies since World War II (Reinhart and Rogoff 2008a). We showed that standard indicators for the United States, such as asset price inflation, rising leverage, large sustained current account deficits, and a slowing trajectory of economic growth, exhibited virtually all the signs of a country on the verge of a financial crisis—indeed, a severe one. In this paper, we engage in a similar comparative historical analysis that is focused on the aftermath of systemic banking crises…Link

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Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development

Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development. Philippe Aghion, Kenneth Rogoff, 2009, Paper. “This paper offers empirical evidence that real exchange rate volatility can have a significant impact on long-term rate of productivity growth, but the effect depends critically on a country’s level of financial development. For countries with relatively low levels of financial development, exchange rate volatility generally reduces growth, whereas for financially advanced countries, there is no significant effect. Our empirical analysis is based on an 83 country data set spanning the years 1960-2000…”  Link

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The Global Competitiveness Report 2008-2009

The Global Competitiveness Report 2008-2009. Michael Porter, January 1, 2009, Book. “This year’s Global Competitiveness Report is being released at a time of multiple shocks to the global economy. The subprime mortgage crisis and the ensuing credit crunch, combined with rising inflation worldwide and the consequent slowdown in demand in many advanced economies, has engendered significant uncertainty about the short-term outlook for the world economy. Global growth is slowing, and it is not yet clear when the effects of the present crisis will subside…” Link

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The Mexico Competitiveness Report 2009

The Mexico Competitiveness Report 2009. Ricardo Hausmann, 2009, Paper. “The key strengths and weaknesses of Mexico’s economic landscape are explored in a comprehensive new report co-produced by the World Economic Forum (WEF) and Harvard’s Center for International Development (CID). The Mexico Competitiveness Report 2009 was released in late June at a workshop in Mexico City attended by several top-level government officials, including Mexican President Felipe Calderón MPA/MC 2000…” Link

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