Found 281 article(s) for author 'Trade Policy'

China Could Export a Recession to Everyone Else

China Could Export a Recession to Everyone Else. Kenneth Rogoff, July 5, 2017, Video, “Soaring debt levels in China were a serious concern as the fallout of any crisis would hit everyone else, said a former International Monetary Fund (IMF) economist on Thursday. “If there’s a country in the world which is really going to affect everyone else and which is vulnerable, it’s got to be China today,” Kenneth Rogoff, economics professor at Harvard University, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday.Link

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Russia’s future looks bleak without Economic and Political Reform

Russia’s future looks bleak without Economic and Political Reform. Kenneth Rogoff, July 5, 2017, Opinion, “When the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, meets his US counterpart, Donald Trump, at this week’s G20 summit in Hamburg, he will not be doing so from a position of economic strength. To be sure, despite the steep drop in oil prices that began three years ago, Russia has managed to escape a deep financial crisis. But while the economy is enjoying a modest rebound after two years of deep recession, the future no longer seems as promising as its leadership thought just five years ago. Barring serious economic and political reform, that bodes ill for Putin’s ability to realise his strategic ambitions for Russia.Link

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The Effects of Fuel Prices, Regulations, and Other Factors on U.S. Coal Production, 2008-2016

The Effects of Fuel Prices, Regulations, and Other Factors on U.S. Coal Production, 2008-2016. John Coglianese, James Stock, June 15, 2017, Paper, “As is shown in Figure 1, between 2008 and 2015, U.S. coal production fell from 1,172 million tons to 897 million tons and coal employment fell from 87,000 to 66,000. In 2016, coal production declined further, to 739 million tons, 37% below its 2008 level. It is widely understood that a primary factor in this decline has been the sharp decline in natural gas prices, which has led to the substitution of natural gas for coal in electricity generation. In 2008, the national average price of natural gas delivered to an electricity generator nationally was 4.3times the price of coal, on a Btu basis; by 2016, this relative price had fallen to 1.4 as a result of the development and spread of fracking. This national decline masks regional variation, with natural gas prices being even more competitive in some regions. For the first time, in 2016 electricity generated from gas overtook generation from coal.Link

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The Real Effects of Capital Controls: Firm-Level Evidence from a Policy Experiment

The Real Effects of Capital Controls: Firm-Level Evidence from a Policy Experiment. Laura Alfaro, June 2017, Paper, “This paper evaluates the effects of capital controls on firm-level stock returns and real investment using data from Brazil. On average, there is a statistically significant drop in cumulative abnormal returns consistent with an increase in the cost of capital for Brazilian firms following capital control announcements. Large firms and the largest exporting firms appear less negatively affected compared to external-finance-dependent firms, and capital controls on equity inflows have a more negative announcement effect on equity returns than those on debt inflows. Overall, the findings have implications for macro-finance models that abstract from heterogeneity at the firm level to examine the optimality of capital control taxation.Link

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Trump’s “China deal” is only a good deal for China

Trump’s “China deal” is only a good deal for China. Lawrence Summers, May 24, 2017, Opinion, “The events of the last week have crowded out reflection on economic policy. But things have been happening. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross described the trade deal reached with China earlier this month as “pretty much a herculean accomplishment….This is more than has been done in the history of U.S.-China relations on trade.”Link

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Inconvenient Truths About the US Trade Deficit

Inconvenient Truths About the US Trade Deficit. Martin Feldstein, April, 25, 2017, Opinion, “The United States has a trade deficit of about $450 billion, or 2.5% of GDP. That means that Americans import $450 billion of goods and services more than they export to the rest of the world. What explains the enormous US deficit year after year, and what would happen to Americans’ standard of living if it were to decline?Link

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How to Renegotiate NAFTA

How to Renegotiate NAFTA. Kenneth Rogoff, April 24, 2017, Opinion, “US President Donald Trump’s administration says that it is sticking with its campaign promise to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement. Indeed, Trump has now reiterated his intention to invoke the procedures for renegotiating NAFTA soon (within “the next two weeks”), triggering a 90-day consultation period with the US Congress, before talks with Mexico and Canada commence. Assuming that happens – a very big if – it is worth asking how renegotiation could be done right.Link

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