Found 6 article(s) for author 'Secular Stagnation'

‘Secular Stagnation’ Even Truer Today

‘Secular Stagnation’ Even Truer Today. Lawrence Summers, May 25, 2017, Opinion, “Larry Summers is doubling down on his secular-stagnation hypothesis. The Harvard economist and former Treasury secretary first offered the bleak diagnosis in November 2013 at an International Monetary Fund conference. The U.S. and much of the rest of the world, he suggested, was suffering from a chronic shortage…Link

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Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World

Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World. Kenneth Rogoff, May 19, 2017, Paper, “How should monetary policy be conducted if trend global real interest rates continue to remain below historical norms for another decade or two? And how, especially, might monetary authorities prepare for another deep recession? Whether or not the world has…Link

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Crises in Economic Thought, Secular Stagnation, and Future Economic  Research 

Crises in Economic Thought, Secular Stagnation, and Future Economic Research. Lawrence Summers, 2016, Paper, “I am very flattered by the invitation to be the dinner speaker at this conference—now celebrating its 30th anniversary. I was proud to coauthor the lead article in the inaugural volume of this series on Hysteresis and European Unemployment with Olivier Blanchard— (Blanchard and Summers 1986). Less successful in its original incarnation was a paper I presented a couple of years later on “The Scientific Illusion in Empirical Macroeconomics” that did not get published in this forum but was published a few years later as Summers (1991). In ways I certainly did not expect, both these papers contain ideas that I believe are relevant to current policy dilemmas.Link

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2014: US Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound

2014: US Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound. Lawrence Summers, 2016, Book Chapter. “I would like to thank Michael Peterson very much for his generous words of introduction and for his thoughtful observations about the long-run economic challenges that our country faces. You do not, however, get to the long run except through the short run, and what happens in the short run has a profound impact on the long run. To reverse Keynes a bit, if you die in the short run, there is no long run. So my preoccupation this morning will be with a set of temporary but, I believe, ultimately long-term concerns.Link

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Secular stagnation, debt overhang and other rationales for sluggish growth, six years on

Secular stagnation, debt overhang and other rationales for sluggish growth, six years on, Kenneth Rogoff, January 2015, Paper, There is considerable controversy over why sluggish economic growth persists across many advanced economies six years after the onset of the financial crisis. Theories include a secular deficiency in aggregate demand, slowing innovation, adverse demographics, lingering policy uncertainty, post-crisis political fractionalisation, debt overhang, insufficient fiscal stimulus, excessive financial regulation, and some mix of all of the above. This paper surveys the alternative viewpoints. We argue that until significant pockets of private, external and public debt overhang further abate, the potential role of other headwinds to economic growth will be difficult to quantifyLink

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Secular Stagnation, Debt Overhang and other Rationales for Sluggish Growth, Six Years On

Secular Stagnation, Debt Overhang and other Rationales for Sluggish Growth, Six Years On, Kenneth Rogoff, January 2015, Paper. “There is considerable controversy over why sluggish economic growth persists across many advanced economies six years after the onset of the financial crisis. Theories include a secular deficiency in aggregate demand, slowing innovation, adverse demographics, lingering policy uncertainty, post-crisis political fractionalisation, debt overhang, insufficient fiscal stimulus, excessive financial regulation, and some mix of all of the above. This paper surveys the alternative viewpoints. We argue that until significant pockets…Link

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