Found 22 article(s) for author 'Robin Greenwood'

A Comparative-Advantage Approach to Government Debt Maturity

A Comparative-Advantage Approach to Government Debt Maturity. Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson, Jeremy Stein, August 2015, Paper. “The government’s choice of shorter-maturity debt issuance may complement prudential financial regulation by crowding out private issuance, thereby limiting excess private money creation. Although greater short-term government debt increases rollover risk because of a reduction in private short-term debt, the government’s optimal debt maturity choice can reduce the social cost of excessive private debt issuance.Link

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Vulnerable banks

Vulnerable banks. Robin Greenwood, March 2015, Paper. “We present a model in which fire sales propagate shocks across bank balance sheets. When a bank experiences a negative shock to its equity, a natural way to return to target leverage is to sell assets. If potential buyers are limited, then asset sales depress prices, in which case one bank’s sales impact other banks with common exposures. We show how this contagion effect adds up across the banking sector, and how it can be estimated empirically using balance sheet data. We compute bank exposures to system-wide deleveraging, as well as the spillovers induced by individual banks…” Link

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Government Debt Management at the Zero Lower Bound

Government Debt Management at the Zero Lower Bound. Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Lawrence H. Summers, September 30, 2014, Paper. “This paper re-examines government debt management policy in light of the U.S. experience with extraordinary fiscal and monetary policies since 2008. We first document that the Treasury’s decision to lengthen the average maturity of the debt has partially offset the Federal Reserve’s attempts to reduce the supply of long-term bonds held by private investors through its policy of quantitative easing…” May require purchase or user account. Link

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A Comparative-Advantage Approach to Government Debt Maturity

A Comparative-Advantage Approach to Government Debt Maturity. Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, May 2014, Paper. “We study optimal government debt maturity in a model where investors derive monetary services from holding riskless short-term securities. In a setting where the government is the only issuer of such riskless paper, it trades off the monetary premium associated with short-term debt against the refinancing risk implied by the need to roll over its debt more often. We then extend the model to allow private financial intermediaries…” Link verified June 19, 2014

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X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model

X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model. Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer, March 26, 2014, Paper. “Survey evidence suggests that many investors form beliefs about future stock market returns by extrapolating past returns. Such beliefs are hard to reconcile with existing models of the aggregate stock market. We study a consumption-based asset pricing model in which some investors form beliefs about future price changes in the stock market by extrapolating past price changes, while other investors hold fully rational beliefs…” Link verified August 21, 2014

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X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model

X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model. Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer, March 26, 2014, Paper. “Survey evidence suggests that many investors form beliefs about future stock market returns by extrapolating past returns. Such beliefs are hard to reconcile with existing models of the aggregate stock market. We study a consumption-based asset pricing model in which some investors form beliefs about future price changes in the stock market by extrapolating past price changes, while other investors hold fully rational beliefs. We find that the model captures many features of actual prices and returns…” May require purchase or user account. Link Verified October 18, 2014

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Vulnerable Banks

Vulnerable Banks. Robin Greenwood, March 2014, Paper. “We present a model in which fire sales propagate shocks across bank balance sheets. When a bank experiences a negative shock to its equity, a natural way to return to target leverage is to sell assets. If potential buyers are limited, then asset sales depress prices, in which case one bank’s sales impact other banks with common exposures. We show how this contagion effect adds up across the banking sector, and how it can be estimated empirically using balance sheet data. We compute bank exposures to system-wide…” Link verified June 19, 2014

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Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns

Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns. Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer, January 11, 2014, Paper. “We analyze time series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the stock market. However, investor expectations are strongly negatively correlated with model-based expected returns. The evidence is not consistent with rational expectations representative investor models of returns…” Link Verified October 18, 2014

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Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns

Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns. Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, February 2013, Paper. “We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the financing costs faced by low quality firms, so the debt issuance of low quality firms is particularly useful for forecasting bond returns. We show that a significant decline in issuer quality is a more reliable signal of credit market overheating than rapid…” Link verified August 21, 2014

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