Found 22 article(s) for author 'Robin Greenwood'

The Financial Regulatory Reform Agenda in 2017

The Financial Regulatory Reform Agenda in 2017. Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson, Jeremy Stein, Adi Sunderam, February 2017, Paper, “We take stock of the post-crisis financial regulatory reform agenda. We highlight and summarize areas of clear progress, where post-crisis reforms should either be maintained or built upon. We then identify several areas where the new regulations could be streamlined or rolled back in an effort to reduce the burden on the financial sector, particularly on smaller banks.Link

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Rainy Day Stocks

Rainy Day Stocks, Robin Greenwood, January 2017, Paper, “We study the good- and bad-times performance of equity portfolios formed on characteristics. Many characteristics associated with good performance during bad times – value, profitability, small size, safety, and total volatility – also perform well during good times. Stocks with characteristics signifying high liquidity, such as high turnover and low bid ask spreads, perform well during bad times but otherwise underperform. We develop a simple but flexible procedure to recover a “risk neutral alpha” that recognizes a 1% return experienced during bad times as being more valuable than a 1% return generated during good times. We also show how an investor can build a “rainy day” portfolio that minimizes underperformance during bad times.Link

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Bubbles for Fama

Bubbles for Fama. Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer, November 2016, Paper, “We evaluate Eugene Fama’s claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on US industry returns 1926-2014 and international sector returns 1986-2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio does not, on average, predict unusually low returns going forward; (2) such sharp price increases do predict a substantially heightened probability of a crash; (3) attributes of the price run-up, including volatility, issuance, book-to-market ratio, market P/E ratio and the price path of the run-up can all help forecast an eventual crash; and (4) some of these characteristics can help investors earn superior returns by timing the bubble. Results hold similarly in US and international samples.Link

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The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet as a Financial-Stability Tool

The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet as a Financial-Stability Tool. Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson, Jeremy Stein, September 2016, Paper, “In this paper, we argue that the Federal Reserve should use its balance sheet to help reduce a key threat to financial stability: the tendency for private-sector financial intermediaries to engage in excessive amounts of maturity transformation—i.e. to finance risky assets using dangerously large volumes of runnable short-term liabilities. Specifically, we make the case that the Fed can complement its regulatory efforts on the financial-stability front by maintaining a relatively large balance sheet, even when policy rates have moved well away from the zero lower bound (ZLB). In so doing, it can help ensure that there is an ample supply of government-provided safe shortterm claims—e.g. interest-bearing reserves and reverse repurchase agreements.Link

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A Model of Credit Market Sentiment

A Model of Credit Market Sentiment. Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson, March 24, 2016, Paper. “We present a model of credit market sentiment in which investors form beliefs about future creditworthiness by extrapolating past defaults. Our key contribution is to model the endogenous two-way feedback between credit market sentiment and credit market outcomes. This feedback arises because investors’ beliefs depend on past defaults, but beliefs also drive future defaults through investors’ willingness to refinance debt. Our model is able to capture many documented features of credit booms and busts, including the link between credit growth and future returns, and the “calm before the storm” periods in which fundamentals have deteriorated but the credit market has not yet turned.Link

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Extrapolation and Bubbles

Extrapolation and Bubbles. Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer, January 2016, Paper. “We present an extrapolative model of bubbles. In the model, many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals–an average of the asset’s past price changes and the asset’s degree of overvaluation. The two signals are in conflict, and investors “waver” over time in the relative weight they put on them. The model predicts that good news about fundamentals can trigger large price bubbles. We analyze the patterns of cash-flow news that generate the largest bubbles, the reasons why bubbles collapse, and the frequency with which they occur.”  Link

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The Optimal Maturity of Government Debt

The Optimal Maturity of Government Debt. Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson, Lawrence Summers, 2016, Book Chapter. “The central task of debt management is to decide which debt instruments the government should issue in order to finance itself over time. What programs the government should pursue and whether the government should finance its current expenditures by collecting taxes or by borrowing are outside the purview of debt management.  Historically, U.S. debt managers had three main instruments available to them: Trea sury bills with a maturity of less than one year, intermediate-maturity notes with maturities up to ten years, and long-term bonds. Inflation-protected securities were introduced in 1997 and floating-rate notes were added in 2014.Link

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Asset Price Dynamics in Partially Segmented Markets

Asset Price Dynamics in Partially Segmented Markets. Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson, December 2015, Paper. “How do supply shocks in one financial market affect prices in other markets? We develop a model in which capital moves quickly within each asset class, but slowly between asset classes. While most investors specialize in a single market, a handful of generalists can gradually reallocate capital across markets. When a supply shock arrives, prices of risk in the impacted market become disconnected from those in others. Over the long-run, capital flows between markets and prices of risk become more closely aligned. While prices in the impacted market initially overreact to shocks, under plausible conditions, prices in related markets underreact …Link

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Forward Guidance in the Yield Curve: Short Rates versus Bond Supply

Forward Guidance in the Yield Curve: Short Rates versus Bond Supply. Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson, November 17, 2015, Paper. “We present a model of the yield curve in which the central bank can provide market participants with forward guidance on both future short rates and on future Quantitative Easing (QE) operations, which affect bond supply. Forward guidance on short rates works through the expectations hypothesis, while forward guidance on QE works through expected future bond risk premia. If a QE operation is expected to be undone in the near term, then its announcement will have a hump-shaped effect…Link

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Extrapolation and Bubbles

Extrapolation and Bubbles. Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer, September 2015, Paper, “We present an extrapolative model of bubbles. In the model, many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals—an average of the asset’s past price changes and the asset’s degree of overvaluation. The two signals are in conflict, and investors “waver” over time in the relative weight they put on them. The model predicts that good news about fundamentals can trigger large price bubbles. We analyze the patterns of cash-flow news that generate the largest bubbles, the reasons why bubbles collapse, and the frequency with which they occur. The model also predicts that bubbles will be accompanied by high trading volume, and that volume increases with past asset returns. We present empirical evidence that bears on some of the model’s distinctive predictions.Link

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