Found 18 article(s) for author 'Robert Barro'

The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits

The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits. Robert Barro, 2017, Book Chapter, “In recent years there has been a lot of discussion about US budget deficits. Many economists and other observers have viewed these deficits as harmful to the US and world economies. The supposed harmful effects include high real interest rates, low saving, low rates of economic growth, large currentaccount deficits in the United States and other countries with large budget deficits, and either a high or low dollar (depending apparently on the time period).” (Reprint from 1989) Link

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The Reasons Behind the Obama Non-Recovery

The Reasons Behind the Obama Non-Recovery. Robert Barro, September 20, 2016, Opinion, “The Obama administration and some economists argue that the recovery since the Great Recession ended in 2009 has been unusually weak because of the recession’s severity and the fact that it was accompanied by a major financial crisis. Yet in a recent study of economic downturns in the U.S. and elsewhere since 1870, economist Tao Jin and I found that historically the opposite has been true. Empirically, the growth rate during a recovery relates positively to the magnitude of decline during the downturn.Link

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Economic Growth and Convergence, Applied to China

Economic Growth and Convergence, Applied to China. Robert Barro, September/October 2016, Paper, “From the perspective of conditional convergence, China’s GDP growth rate since 1990 has been surprisingly high. However, China cannot deviate forever from the global historical experience, and the per capita growth rate is likely to fall soon from around 8 percent per year to a range of 3-4 percent. China can be viewed as a middle-income convergence success story, grouped with Costa Rica, Indonesia, Peru, Thailand and Uruguay. Upper-income convergence successes (toward which China is likely heading) include Chile, Hong Kong, Ireland, Malaysia, Poland, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.Link

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China’s Growth Prospects

China’s Growth Prospects. Robert Barro, 2016, Paper. “China’s diminished growth prospects are in the news and seem to spell bad news for just about everybody. This article assesses the evidence, arguing that China¡¯s economic growth will be much slower from now on, reducing international trade. Perhaps the biggest challenge for China will be future political tensions in reconciling economic dreams with economic realities.Link

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Economic Growth and Convergence, Applied Especially to China

Economic Growth and Convergence, Applied Especially to China. Robert Barro, January 2016, Paper. “From the perspective of conditional convergence, China’s GDP growth rate since 1990 has been surprisingly high. However, China cannot deviate forever from the global historical experience, and the per capita growth rate is likely to fall soon from around 8% per year to a range of 3 4%. China can be viewed as a middle-income convergence-success story, grouped with Costa Rica, Indonesia, Peru, Thailand, and Uruguay. Upper-income convergence successes comprise Chile, Hong Kong, Ireland, Malaysia, Poland, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. China’s transition from middle- to upper-income status should not be hindered by a middle-income trap, which seems not to exist.Link

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Options-Pricing Formula with Disaster Risk

Options-Pricing Formula with Disaster Risk. Robert Barro, January 2016, Paper. “A new options-pricing formula applies to far-out-of-the money put options on the overall stock market when disaster risk is the dominant force, the size distribution of disasters follows a power law, and the economy has a representative agent with Epstein-Zin utility. In the applicable region, the elasticity of the put-options price with respect to maturity is close to one. The elasticity with respect to exercise price is greater than one, roughly constant, and depends on the difference between the power-law tail parameter and the coefficient of relative risk aversion, γ.Link

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Rare Events and Long-Run Risks

Rare Events and Long-Run Risks. Robert Barro, January 2016, Paper. “Rare events (RE) and long-run risks (LRR) are complementary elements for understanding asset-pricing patterns, including the average equity premium and the volatility of equity returns. We construct a model with RE (temporary and permanent parts) and LRR (including stochastic volatility) and estimate this model with long-term data on aggregate consumption for 42 economies. RE typically associates with major historical episodes, such as the world wars and the Great Depression and analogous country- specific events. LRR reflects gradual and evolving processes that influence long-run growth rates and volatility.Link

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Convergence and Modernization

Convergence and Modernization. Robert Barro. August 2014. Paper. “In a panel of countries since 1960, the estimated convergence rate for per capita GDP is around 1.7% per year, conditional on an array of explanatory variables that hold constant countries’ long-run characteristics. The introduction of country fixed effects generates a much higher—and, I argue, misleading—convergence rate. In a longer time frame—28 countries with GDP data starting between 1870 and 1896—estimation with country fixed effects is more appropriate, and the estimated convergence rate is around 2.6% per year.” Link

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Robert Barro on the Recession

Robert Barro on the Recession. Robert Barro, January 11, 2014, Video. “One of the world’s foremost economists and an influential commentator on our financial turmoil, Robert Barro is widely respected for his insights into the role of the government and private markets in the current recession, and the behavior of the Federal Reserve. His views on the federal stimulus package, financial regulation, the troubles besetting the European Union, and the intensifying competition with Asia often appear in in the Wall Street Journal, where he served as contributing editor, the Economist, Bloomberg, and Business Week, where he has been a viewpoint…” Link verified August 21, 2014

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