Found 9 article(s) for author 'Recession'

China Could Export a Recession to Everyone Else

China Could Export a Recession to Everyone Else. Kenneth Rogoff, July 5, 2017, Video, “Soaring debt levels in China were a serious concern as the fallout of any crisis would hit everyone else, said a former International Monetary Fund (IMF) economist on Thursday. “If there’s a country in the world which is really going to affect everyone else and which is vulnerable, it’s got to be China today,” Kenneth Rogoff, economics professor at Harvard University, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday.Link

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Ability to Fight Recession a Matter of Serious Concern

Ability to Fight Recession a Matter of Serious Concern. Lawrence Summers, October 10, 2016, Video, “The concern about low interest rates and the ability to fight off a recession should be keeping central banks up at night, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers told CNBC on Monday. That’s because interest rates typically come down 500 basis points to contain a recession, and according to market pricing, there’s not going to be 500 basis points of room anytime soon, he said in an interview with “Closing Bell.”Link

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The Reasons Behind the Obama Non-Recovery

The Reasons Behind the Obama Non-Recovery. Robert Barro, September 20, 2016, Opinion, “The Obama administration and some economists argue that the recovery since the Great Recession ended in 2009 has been unusually weak because of the recession’s severity and the fact that it was accompanied by a major financial crisis. Yet in a recent study of economic downturns in the U.S. and elsewhere since 1870, economist Tao Jin and I found that historically the opposite has been true. Empirically, the growth rate during a recovery relates positively to the magnitude of decline during the downturn.Link

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The Fed thinks it can fight the next recession. It shouldn’t be so sure.

The Fed thinks it can fight the next recession. It shouldn’t be so sure. Lawrence Summers, September 8, 2016, Opinion, “As I argued in the first blog post in this series last week, I was disappointed in what came out of The Federal Reserve’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., for three reasons. The first reason, as I wrote in that post, was that the Federal Reserve should have signaled a desire to exceed its 2 percent inflation target during periods of protracted recovery and low unemployment, and in this context to signal that a rate increase was off the table for September and quite likely the rest of the year. Friday’s employment report further strengthens the case for delay both by adding to the evidence on the absence of inflation pressures and by suggesting a less robust economy than most expected.Link

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Problems Unsolved and a Nation Divided

Problems Unsolved and a Nation Divided.  Michael Porter, Jan Rivkin, and Mihir Desai, September 2016, Paper, “America retains and enjoys many strengths. However, various economic indicators show that the U.S. economy has failed to deliver strong growth and shared prosperity for nearly two decades. These structural issues pre-date the Great Recession and are compounded by political paralysis. This report calls for a national economic strategy for America and proposes federal policy priorities that can form the core of such a strategy. Further, the report highlights corporate and personal tax reform as a promising first step in the strategy. Finally, the report warns that it is impossible to solve the issues besetting the U.S. economy and bring prosperity to millions of Americans if the United States remains mired in crippling political gridlock and vicious rhetoric.Link

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Weathering the Great Recession: Variation in Employment Responses by Establishments and Countries

Weathering the Great Recession: Variation in Employment Responses by Establishments and Countries. Richard Freeman, July 2016, Paper, “This paper finds that US employment changed differently relative to output in the Great Recession and recovery than in most other advanced countries or in the US in earlier recessions. Instead of hoarding labor, US firms reduced employment proportionately more than output in the Great Recession, with establishments that survived the downturn contracting jobs massively. Diverging from the aggregate pattern, US manufacturers reduced employment less than output while the elasticity of employment to gross output varied widely among establishments. In the recovery, growth of employment was dominated by job creation in new establishments. The variegated responses of employment to output challenges extant models of how enterprises adjust employment over the business cycle.” Link

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Economy Faces 1 In 3 Chance Of Recession

Economy Faces 1 In 3 Chance Of Recession. Lawrence Summers, January 27, 2016, Audio. “With U.S. stocks off to a dismal start in 2016 and China’s economic growth slowing, Here & Now‘s Jeremy Hobson checks in with Harvard economist Larry Summers. Summers says there’s a 1 in 3 chance the U.S. is heading for a recession. He also says he’s supporting Hillary Clinton for the presidency ...” Link

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Austerity in 2009-2013

Austerity in 2009-2013, Alberto Alesina, September 29, 2014, Paper, The deficit reduction policies (often referred to as fiscal “austerity”) followed by several OECD countries in 2009-13 were motivated, especially in the European Union, by the bond market reaction to large debts and deficits. They were certainly not meant to cool down overheating economies. On the contrary, several countries had to adopt deficit reduction policies when recessions were not quite over and credit crunches were still retarding the recovery. The aim of this paper is to provide an empirical measure of the effects of these deficit reduction policies on output growth. The summer of 2014, when we write, is probably the earliest time when one can begin to assess the effects of these policiesLink

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