Found 388 article(s) for author 'Monetary Policy'

Optimal Taxation and Insurance Using Machine Learning

Optimal Taxation and Insurance Using Machine Learning. Maximilian Kasy, April 10, 2017, Paper, “How should one use (quasi-)experimental evidence when choosing policies such as tax rates, health insurance copay, unemployment benefit levels, class sizes in schools, etc.? This paper suggests an approach based on maximizing posterior expected social welfare, combining insights from (i) optimal policy theory as developed in the field of public finance, and (ii) machine learning using Gaussian process priors. We provide explicit formulas for posterior expected social welfare and optimal policies in a wide class of policy problems.Link

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Interest Rate Conundrums in the Twenty-First Century

Interest Rate Conundrums in the Twenty-First Century. Samuel Hanson, March 31, 2017, Paper, “A large literature argues that long-term interest rates appear to react far more to high-frequency (for example, daily or monthly) movements in short-term interest rates than is predicted by the standard expectations hypothesis. We find that, since 2000, such high-frequency “excess sensitivity” remains evident in U.S. data and has, if anything, grown stronger. By contrast, the positive association between low-frequency changes (such as those seen at a six- or twelve-month horizon) in short- and long-term interest rates, which was quite strong before 2000, has weakened substantially in recent years. As a result, “conundrums”— defined as six- or twelve-month periods in which short rates and long rates move in opposite directions—have become far more common since 2000.Link

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Getting From Here to There: The Transition Tax Issue

Getting From Here to There: The Transition Tax Issue. Stephen Shay, March 27, 2017, Paper, “If there is fundamental U.S. international income tax reform, regardless of the reform option chosen, the United States must decide how to handle the $2.4 trillion to $2.6 trillion of previously untaxed foreign income accumulated by U.S. multinational corporations. In this report, Fleming, Peroni, and Shay argue that the proper approach is to treat the income as a subpart F inclusion in the year before the effective date of fundamental reform and to tax it at regular rates with an option to make the payments in installments that bear market-rate interest. The authors explain why the case for a low or deferred tax on this income is inferior to the case for full immediate taxation.Link

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The Currency-Plus-Commodity Basket: A Proposal for Exchange Rates in Oil-Exporting Countries to Accommodate Trade Shocks Automatically

The Currency-Plus-Commodity Basket: A Proposal for Exchange Rates in Oil-Exporting Countries to Accommodate Trade Shocks Automatically. Jeffrey Frankel, March 2017, Paper, “The paper proposes an exchange rate regime for oil-exporting countries. The goal is to achieve the best of both flexible and fixed exchange rates. The arrangement is designed to deliver monetary policy that counteracts rather than exacerbates the effects of swings in the oil market, while yet offering the day-to-day transparency and predictability of a currency peg. The proposal is to peg the national currency to a basket, but a basket that includes not only the currencies of major trading partners (in particular, the dollar and the euro), but also the export commodity (oil). The plan is called Currency-plus-Commodity Basket (CCB). The paper begins by fleshing out the need for an innovative arrangement that allows accommodation to trade shocks.Link

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Mnuchin’s Mission

Mnuchin’s Mission. Jeffrey Frankel, March 22, 2017, Opinion, “US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is hemmed in on all sides. Domestically, he’s trapped between the promises he has made (such as the “Mnuchin rule” that taxes wouldn’t be cut for the rich), the actions of President Donald Trump (whose tax plan includes cuts for the rich), and simple arithmetic (which makes the administration’s conflicting pledges impossible to fulfill). But even on the international stage, where US treasury secretaries typically enjoy more latitude and esteem, Mnuchin is likely to have a hard time.Link

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Defending Worldwide Taxation with a Shareholder-Based Definition of Corporate Residence

Defending Worldwide Taxation with a Shareholder-Based Definition of Corporate Residence. Stephen Shay, March 5, 2017, Paper, “This Article argues that a principled, efficient, and practical definition of corporate residence is necessary even if some form of corporate integration is adopted, and that such a definition is a key element in designing either a real worldwide or a territorial income tax system as well as a potential restraint on the inversion phenomenon. The Article proposes that the United States adopt a shareholder-based definition of corporate residence that is structured as follows:…Link

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Addicted to Dollars

Addicted to Dollars. Carmen Reinhart, March 1, 2017, Opinion, “Since the end of World War II, the United States’ share in world GDP has fallen from nearly 30% to about 18%. Other advanced economies have also experienced sustained declines in their respective slices of the global pie. But you wouldn’t know it from looking at the international monetary system.Link

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The Country Chronologies to Exchange Rate Arrangements into the 21st Century: Will the Anchor Currency Hold?

The Country Chronologies to Exchange Rate Arrangements into the 21st Century: Will the Anchor Currency Hold? Carmen Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, February 2017, Paper, “Detailed country-by-country chronologies are an informative companion piece to our paper “Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?,” which provides a comprehensive history of anchor or reference currencies, exchange rate arrangements, and a new measure of foreign exchange restrictions for 194 countries and territories over 1946-2016. The individual country chronologies are also a central component of our approach to classifying regimes. These country histories date dual or multiple exchange rate episodes, as well as to differentiate between pre-announced pegs, crawling pegs, and bands from their de facto counterparts. We think it is important to distinguish between say, de facto pegs or bands from announced pegs or bands, because their properties are potentially different. The chronologies also flag the dates for important turning points, such as when the exchange rate first floated, or when the anchor currency was changed. We extend our chronologies as far back as possible, even though we only classify regimes from 1946 onwards.Link

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