Found 211 article(s) for author 'Lawrence Summers'

No Free Lunches but Plenty of Cheap Ones

No Free Lunches but Plenty of Cheap Ones. Lawrence Summers, February 8, 2016, Opinion. “Tradeoffs have long been at the centre of economics. The aphorism “there is no such thing as a free lunch” captures a central economic idea: you cannot get something for nothing. Among the many tradeoffs emphasised by economists are guns v butter, public v private, efficiency v equity, quality v quantity or cost and short-term v long-term performance.Link

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Economy Faces 1 In 3 Chance Of Recession

Economy Faces 1 In 3 Chance Of Recession. Lawrence Summers, January 27, 2016, Audio. “With U.S. stocks off to a dismal start in 2016 and China’s economic growth slowing, Here & Now‘s Jeremy Hobson checks in with Harvard economist Larry Summers. Summers says there’s a 1 in 3 chance the U.S. is heading for a recession. He also says he’s supporting Hillary Clinton for the presidency ...” Link

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Don’t expect four Fed hikes in 2016

Don’t expect four Fed hikes in 2016. Lawrence Summers, January 25, 2016, Video. “The dismal start to financial markets this year, coupled with concerns about the slowdown in China, should keep the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates four times in 2016, as policymakers had forecast last month, former Clinton administration Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said Monday.Link

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Heed the Fears of the Financial Markets

Heed the Fears of the Financial Markets. Lawrence Summers, January 10, 2016, Opinion, “Often markets are volatile at the end of a year and then settle down as a new year begins. Not this year. US and European markets closed lower on Friday after a very rough week despite a strong US jobs report. The week saw dramatic declines in China’s stock market and currency. Oil prices fell even in the face of major tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia. A week when bad market news makes the front page raises two questions. How much should forecasters and policymakers look to speculative markets as indicators of future prospects? And how alarmed should they be about the prospect of a global slowdown? Markets are more volatile than the fundamentals they seek to assess. Economist Paul Samuelson quipped 50 years ago, “the stock market has predicted nine of the last five recessions.” Former Treasury secretary Robert Rubin was right when he would regularly reassure anxious politicos in the Clinton White House that “markets go up, markets go down” on days when a market move created either joy or anxiety …” Link

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The Optimal Maturity of Government Debt

The Optimal Maturity of Government Debt. Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson, Lawrence Summers, 2016, Book Chapter. “The central task of debt management is to decide which debt instruments the government should issue in order to finance itself over time. What programs the government should pursue and whether the government should finance its current expenditures by collecting taxes or by borrowing are outside the purview of debt management.  Historically, U.S. debt managers had three main instruments available to them: Trea sury bills with a maturity of less than one year, intermediate-maturity notes with maturities up to ten years, and long-term bonds. Inflation-protected securities were introduced in 1997 and floating-rate notes were added in 2014.Link

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Larry Summers: The Fed’s mistakes are a cause for pessimism

Larry Summers: The Fed’s mistakes are a cause for pessimism. Lawrence Summers, December 22, 2015, Opinion. “It has been two years since I resurrected Alvin Hansen’s secular stagnation idea and suggested its relevance to current conditions in the industrial world. Unfortunately experience since that time has tended to confirm the secular stagnation hypothesis. Secular stagnation is a possibility. It is not an inevitability and it can be avoided with strong policy. Unfortunately, the Fed and other policy setters remain committed to traditional paradigms and so are acting in ways that make secular stagnation more likely The core idea behind secular stagnation was that the neutral real rate had for a variety of reasons fallen and might well be below zero a substantial part of the time going forward. The inference was that economies might be doomed to oscillate between sluggish growth and growth like that of the 2003-2007 period that rested on an unstable financial foundation …Link

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What Larry Summers Thinks About Raising Interest Rates

What Larry Summers Thinks About Raising Interest Rates. Lawrence Summers, December 15, 2015, Audio. “Many signs point to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this week during its two-day Open Market Committee meeting. The last time rates were raised was nearly a decade ago; since then the Fed has pursued a policy of slashing rates and keeping them low in an effort to wrench the economy out of the Great Recession and promote greater growth and consumption. Now as economic indicators like low unemployment and increased consumer spending tick toward the positive, many economists are pointing to a limited rate hike as a way to move the economy towards normalcy after the volatility of the past decade…Link

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Rate Delay Less Risky Than Premature Hike

Rate Delay Less Risky Than Premature Hike. Lawrence Summers, December 15, 2015, Video. “In an interview with Tom Keene of Bloomberg Surveillance from the Arab Strategy Forum in Dubai, Summers voiced skepticism surrounding an expected Federal Reserve rate hike and the impact of lower commodities prices and devaluing currencies. Summers also discussed his thoughts on secular stagnation.Link

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