Found 201 article(s) for author 'Lawrence Summers'

Crises in Economic Thought, Secular Stagnation, and Future Economic  Research 

Crises in Economic Thought, Secular Stagnation, and Future Economic Research. Lawrence Summers, 2016, Paper, “I am very flattered by the invitation to be the dinner speaker at this conference—now celebrating its 30th anniversary. I was proud to coauthor the lead article in the inaugural volume of this series on Hysteresis and European Unemployment with Olivier Blanchard— (Blanchard and Summers 1986). Less successful in its original incarnation was a paper I presented a couple of years later on “The Scientific Illusion in Empirical Macroeconomics” that did not get published in this forum but was published a few years later as Summers (1991). In ways I certainly did not expect, both these papers contain ideas that I believe are relevant to current policy dilemmas.Link

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Hysteresis and Fiscal Policy During the Global Crisis

Hysteresis and Fiscal Policy During the Global Crisis. Lawrence Summers, October 12, 2016, Paper, “Conventional wisdom on supply and demand suggests that demand shocks are cyclical or transitory, and that only technology shocks are responsible for trend changes. This column argues that cyclical events can have permanent effects on demand, and therefore GDP. It is time for policymakers to start considering the possibility of hysteresis seriously.Link

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Ability to Fight Recession a Matter of Serious Concern

Ability to Fight Recession a Matter of Serious Concern. Lawrence Summers, October 10, 2016, Video, “The concern about low interest rates and the ability to fight off a recession should be keeping central banks up at night, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers told CNBC on Monday. That’s because interest rates typically come down 500 basis points to contain a recession, and according to market pricing, there’s not going to be 500 basis points of room anytime soon, he said in an interview with “Closing Bell.”Link

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Understanding Bank Risk through Market Measures

Understanding Bank Risk through Market Measures. Lawrence Summers, Fall 2016, Paper, “Since the financial crisis, there have been major changes in the regulation of large banks directed at reducing their risk. Measures of regulatory capital have substantially increased; leverage ratios have been reduced; and stress-testing has sought to further assure safety by raising levels of capital and reducing risk-taking. Standard financial theories predict that such changes would lead to substantial declines in financial market measures of risk.” Link

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Men not at work: Lawrence Summers on America’s hidden unemployment

Men not at work: Lawrence Summers on America’s hidden unemployment. Lawrence Summers, September 23, 2016, Opinion, “The impact of technology on the availability of work is much debated these days. It is widely feared that half the jobs in the economy might be eliminated by innovations such as self-driving vehicles, automatic checkout machines and expert systems that trade securities more effectively than humans can.Link

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Have big banks gotten safer?

Have big banks gotten safer? Lawrence Summers, September 15, 2016, Paper, “Since the financial crisis, there have been major changes in the regulation of large financial institutions directed at reducing their risk. Measures of regulatory capital have substantially increased; leverage ratios have been reduced; and stress testing has sought to further assure safety by raising levels of capital and reducing risk taking. Standard financial theories would predict that such changes would lead to substantial declines in financial market measures of risk. For major institutions in the United States and around the world and midsized institutions in the United States, we test this proposition using information on stock price volatility, option-based estimates of future volatility, beta, credit default swaps, earnings-price ratios, and preferred stock yields.Link

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The Fed thinks it can fight the next recession. It shouldn’t be so sure.

The Fed thinks it can fight the next recession. It shouldn’t be so sure. Lawrence Summers, September 8, 2016, Opinion, “As I argued in the first blog post in this series last week, I was disappointed in what came out of The Federal Reserve’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., for three reasons. The first reason, as I wrote in that post, was that the Federal Reserve should have signaled a desire to exceed its 2 percent inflation target during periods of protracted recovery and low unemployment, and in this context to signal that a rate increase was off the table for September and quite likely the rest of the year. Friday’s employment report further strengthens the case for delay both by adding to the evidence on the absence of inflation pressures and by suggesting a less robust economy than most expected.Link

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The Fed Shouldn’t Expect People to Trust its Current Approach to the Economy

The Fed Shouldn’t Expect People to Trust its Current Approach to the Economy. Lawrence Summers, August 29, 2016, Opinion, “I had high hopes for the Federal Reserve’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo. The conference was billed as a forum that would look at new approaches to the conduct of monetary policy — something that I have been urging as necessary, given secular stagnation risks and the sharp decline in the apparent neutral rate of interest. And Chair Janet Yellen’s speech in a relatively academic setting provided an opportunity to signal that the Fed recognized that new realities required new approaches.Link

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