Found 35 article(s) for author 'Kenneth Rogoff'

Oil Prices and Global Growth

Oil Prices and Global Growth. Kenneth Rogoff, December 14, 2015, Opinion, “One of the biggest economic surprises of 2015 is that the stunning drop in global oil prices did not deliver a bigger boost to global growth. Despite the collapse in prices, from over $115 per barrel in June 2014 to $45 at the end of November 2015, most macroeconomic models suggest that the impact on global growth has been less than expected – perhaps 0.5% of global GDP. The good news is that this welcome but modest effect on growth probably will not die out in 2016. The bad news is that low prices will place even greater strains on the main oil-exporting countries…Link

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The Fed’s Communication Breakdown

The Fed’s Communication Breakdown. Kenneth Rogoff, November 2, 2015, Opinion. “Nothing describes the United States Federal Reserve’s current communication policy better than the old saying that a camel is a horse designed by committee. Various members of the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) have called the decision to keep the base rate unchanged ‘data-dependent.’ That sounds helpful until you realize that each of them seems to have a different interpretation of ‘data-dependent,’ to the point that its meaning seems to be ‘gut personal instinct.’ In other words, the Fed’s communication…Link

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World’s Economic Slowdown is a Hangover not a Coma

World’s Economic Slowdown is a Hangover not a Coma. Kenneth Rogoff, October 9, 2015, Opinion. “What is the right diagnosis of the ailing global economy? Seven years into the global financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund is still marking down its global growth forecasts, now to the lowest level since 2009.  Some argue that we are living in a world of deficient demand, doomed to decades of secular stagnation. Maybe. But another possibility is that the global economy is in the later stages of a debt “super cycle”, crushed under a burden accumulated over years of lax regulation and financial excess.Link

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Sovereign Debt and Financial Crisis: Theory and Historical Evidence

Sovereign Debt and Financial Crisis: Theory and Historical Evidence. Carment Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, October 2015, Paper. “This issue of the Journal of the European Economic Association presents papers from the October 2014 conference on Sovereign Debt Crises organized by Ṣebnem Kalemli‐Özcan, Carmen Reinhart, and Ken Rogoff. This project arose from the need to provide rigorous research on the topic. The so‐called ‘Great Contraction’ in the world’s advanced economies is the most severe and synchronized global financial crisis since the Great Depression. It has forced all concerned parties to reassess the roles played by public...Link

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Revisiting Speculative Hyperinflations in Monetary Models: A Reply to Cochrane

Revisiting Speculative Hyperinflations in Monetary Models: A Reply to Cochrane. Kenneth Rogoff, May 17, 2015, Paper, “This paper revisits the debate on ruling out speculative hyperinflations in monetary models. Obstfeld and Rogoff (1983, 1986) argue that in pure fiat money models, where the government gives no backing whatsoever to currency, there is in fact no reasonable way to rule out speculative hyperinflations where the value of money goes to zero, even if the money supply itself is exogenous and constant. Such perverse equilibria are ruled out, however, if the government provides even a very small real backing to the currency, indeed the backing does not have to be certain. Cochrane (2011),Link

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