Found 41 article(s) for author 'Kenneth Rogoff'

Emerging Markets Should Go for the Gold

Emerging Markets Should Go for the Gold. Kenneth Rogoff, May 3, 2016, Opinion. “Are emerging-market central banks overweight in dollars and underweight in gold? Given a slowing global economy, in which emerging markets are probably very grateful for any reserves they retain, this might seem an ill-timed question. But there is a good case to be made that a shift in emerging markets toward accumulating gold would help the international financial system function more smoothly and benefit everyone.Link

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2011: The Adam Smith Address Nightmare on Kaiserstrasse

2011: The Adam Smith Address Nightmare on Kaiserstrasse. Kenneth Rogoff, 2016, Book Chapter. “It is a great honor to receive the 2011 Adam Smith award from the National Association for Business Economics. It is an honor both because of the important group that awards it and because of the extraordinarily distinguished list of recipients that have come before me. In this chapter, I will begin by discussing why sovereign debt crises often follow after a wave of international financial crises. I will then turn to the ongoing crisis in Europe, which is at the epicenter of the current phase of the larger crisis. Finally, I will speculate on the long-term implications for the international monetary system of a significant break-up in the euro system.Link

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Fear is the Key in Volatile Markets

Fear is the Key in Volatile Markets. Kenneth Rogoff, March 14, 2016, Opinion. “The phenomenal market volatility of the past year owes much to genuine risks and uncertainties about factors such as Chinese growth, European banks, and the oil glut. For the first two months of this year, many investors were so panicked that even the United States, the world’s most comforting growth story, was about to fall into recession. Indeed, among the experts who participate in the Wall Street Journal’s monthly poll, 21 per cent believed a recession was around the corner.Link

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Central Banks Need to Think About Negative Rates

Central Banks Need to Think About Negative Rates. Kenneth Rogoff, January 20, 2016, Video. “Harvard University Professor Kenneth Rogoff discusses the idea of negative interest rates by central banks, the ability to fight inflation, and income inequality around the world. He speaks from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on “Bloomberg Surveillance …Link

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European Austerity Is Overrated

European Austerity Is Overrated. Kenneth Rogoff, January 13, 2016, Video. “Kenneth Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard University and a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, talks about the global economy and financial markets. Rogoff speaks with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance” from the sidelines of the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland …Link

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Oil Prices and Global Growth

Oil Prices and Global Growth. Kenneth Rogoff, December 14, 2015, Opinion, “One of the biggest economic surprises of 2015 is that the stunning drop in global oil prices did not deliver a bigger boost to global growth. Despite the collapse in prices, from over $115 per barrel in June 2014 to $45 at the end of November 2015, most macroeconomic models suggest that the impact on global growth has been less than expected – perhaps 0.5% of global GDP. The good news is that this welcome but modest effect on growth probably will not die out in 2016. The bad news is that low prices will place even greater strains on the main oil-exporting countries…Link

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The Fed’s Communication Breakdown

The Fed’s Communication Breakdown. Kenneth Rogoff, November 2, 2015, Opinion. “Nothing describes the United States Federal Reserve’s current communication policy better than the old saying that a camel is a horse designed by committee. Various members of the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) have called the decision to keep the base rate unchanged ‘data-dependent.’ That sounds helpful until you realize that each of them seems to have a different interpretation of ‘data-dependent,’ to the point that its meaning seems to be ‘gut personal instinct.’ In other words, the Fed’s communication…Link

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World’s Economic Slowdown is a Hangover not a Coma

World’s Economic Slowdown is a Hangover not a Coma. Kenneth Rogoff, October 9, 2015, Opinion. “What is the right diagnosis of the ailing global economy? Seven years into the global financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund is still marking down its global growth forecasts, now to the lowest level since 2009.  Some argue that we are living in a world of deficient demand, doomed to decades of secular stagnation. Maybe. But another possibility is that the global economy is in the later stages of a debt “super cycle”, crushed under a burden accumulated over years of lax regulation and financial excess.Link

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Sovereign Debt and Financial Crisis: Theory and Historical Evidence

Sovereign Debt and Financial Crisis: Theory and Historical Evidence. Carment Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, October 2015, Paper. “This issue of the Journal of the European Economic Association presents papers from the October 2014 conference on Sovereign Debt Crises organized by Ṣebnem Kalemli‐Özcan, Carmen Reinhart, and Ken Rogoff. This project arose from the need to provide rigorous research on the topic. The so‐called ‘Great Contraction’ in the world’s advanced economies is the most severe and synchronized global financial crisis since the Great Depression. It has forced all concerned parties to reassess the roles played by public...Link

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