Found 35 article(s) for author 'Kenneth Rogoff'

China Could Export a Recession to Everyone Else

China Could Export a Recession to Everyone Else. Kenneth Rogoff, July 5, 2017, Video, “Soaring debt levels in China were a serious concern as the fallout of any crisis would hit everyone else, said a former International Monetary Fund (IMF) economist on Thursday. “If there’s a country in the world which is really going to affect everyone else and which is vulnerable, it’s got to be China today,” Kenneth Rogoff, economics professor at Harvard University, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday.Link

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Russia’s future looks bleak without Economic and Political Reform

Russia’s future looks bleak without Economic and Political Reform. Kenneth Rogoff, July 5, 2017, Opinion, “When the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, meets his US counterpart, Donald Trump, at this week’s G20 summit in Hamburg, he will not be doing so from a position of economic strength. To be sure, despite the steep drop in oil prices that began three years ago, Russia has managed to escape a deep financial crisis. But while the economy is enjoying a modest rebound after two years of deep recession, the future no longer seems as promising as its leadership thought just five years ago. Barring serious economic and political reform, that bodes ill for Putin’s ability to realise his strategic ambitions for Russia.Link

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The Eurozone Must Reform or Die

The Eurozone Must Reform or Die. Kenneth Rogoff, June 14, 2017, Opinion, “With the election of a reform-minded centrist president in France and the re-election of German Chancellor Angela Merkel seeming ever more likely, is there hope for the stalled single-currency project in Europe? Perhaps, but another decade of slow growth, punctuated by periodic debt-related convulsions, still looks more likely. With a determined move toward fiscal and banking union, things could be much better. But, in the absence of policies to strengthen stability and sustainability, the chances of an eventual collapse are much greater.Link

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Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World

Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World. Kenneth Rogoff, May 19, 2017, Paper, “How should monetary policy be conducted if trend global real interest rates continue to remain below historical norms for another decade or two? And how, especially, might monetary authorities prepare for another deep recession? Whether or not the world has…Link

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Revisiting Speculative Hyperinflations in Monetary Models

Revisiting Speculative Hyperinflations in Monetary Models. Kenneth Rogoff, May 4, 2017, Paper, “In an interesting and provocative paper in the Journal of Political Economy, John Cochrane (2011) examines a host of New Keynesian and micro-founded models of money demand, and finds them all guilty of arbitrarily assuming uniqueness when, in fact, the whole class of models is generically riddled with multiple-equilibrium problems. He concludes that only the “fiscal theory of the price level”–which posits that the price level simply follows from the government budget constraint–offers a coherent and rigorous theory of the value of money.Link

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Why Did Trump Accept Venezuela’s Money?

Why Did Trump Accept Venezuela’s Money? Kenneth Rogoff, May 4, 2017, Opinion, “There is a certain irony in recent news that Venezuela donated a half-million dollars to Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration through Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), the state-owned oil company. Venezuela, of course, is a serial defaulter, having done so more times than almost any other country over the last two centuries.Link

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Growing Out of Populism?

Growing Out of Populism? Kenneth Rogoff, April 4, 2017, Opinion, “After nine dreary years of downgrading their GDP forecasts, macroeconomic policymakers around the world are shaking their heads in disbelief: Despite a populist-propelled wave of political tumult, global growth is actually set to outperform expectations in 2017. It’s not just American exceptionalism. Although US growth is very strong, Europe has been outperforming expectations by more. There is even happy news for emerging markets, which are still bracing for US Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes but have gained a better backdrop against which to adjust.Link

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The Country Chronologies to Exchange Rate Arrangements into the 21st Century: Will the Anchor Currency Hold?

The Country Chronologies to Exchange Rate Arrangements into the 21st Century: Will the Anchor Currency Hold? Carmen Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, February 2017, Paper, “Detailed country-by-country chronologies are an informative companion piece to our paper “Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?,” which provides a comprehensive history of anchor or reference currencies, exchange rate arrangements, and a new measure of foreign exchange restrictions for 194 countries and territories over 1946-2016. The individual country chronologies are also a central component of our approach to classifying regimes. These country histories date dual or multiple exchange rate episodes, as well as to differentiate between pre-announced pegs, crawling pegs, and bands from their de facto counterparts. We think it is important to distinguish between say, de facto pegs or bands from announced pegs or bands, because their properties are potentially different. The chronologies also flag the dates for important turning points, such as when the exchange rate first floated, or when the anchor currency was changed. We extend our chronologies as far back as possible, even though we only classify regimes from 1946 onwards.Link

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Why Trump Can’t Bully China

Why Trump Can’t Bully China. Kenneth Rogoff, February 9, 2017, Opinion, “As US President Donald Trump proceeds to destabilize the post-war global economic order, much of the world is collectively holding its breath. Commentators search for words to describe his assault on conventional norms of leadership and tolerance in a modern liberal democracy. The mainstream media, faced with a president who might sometimes be badly uninformed and yet really believes what he is saying, hesitate to label conspicuously false statements as lies.Link

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