Found 78 article(s) for author 'Kenneth Rogoff'

The Aftermath of Financial Crises

The Aftermath of Financial Crises. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, 2009, Paper. “A year ago, we presented a historical analysis comparing the run-up to the 2007 US subprime financial crisis with the antecedents of other banking crises in advanced economies since World War II (Reinhart and Rogoff 2008a). We showed that standard indicators for the United States, such as asset price inflation, rising leverage, large sustained current account deficits, and a slowing trajectory of economic growth, exhibited virtually all the signs of a country on the verge of a financial crisis—indeed, a severe one. In this paper, we engage in a similar comparative historical analysis that is focused on the aftermath of systemic banking crises…Link

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Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development

Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development. Philippe Aghion, Kenneth Rogoff, 2009, Paper. “This paper offers empirical evidence that real exchange rate volatility can have a significant impact on long-term rate of productivity growth, but the effect depends critically on a country’s level of financial development. For countries with relatively low levels of financial development, exchange rate volatility generally reduces growth, whereas for financially advanced countries, there is no significant effect. Our empirical analysis is based on an 83 country data set spanning the years 1960-2000…”  Link

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Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal

Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal. Kenneth Rogoff, 2009, Paper. “The literature on the benefits and costs of financial globalization for developing countries has exploded in recent years, but along many disparate channels with a variety of apparently conflicting results. There is still little robust evidence of the growth benefits of broad capital account liberalization, but a number of recent papers in the finance literature report that equity market liberalizations do significantly boost growth…” Link

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International Aspects of Financial-Market Imperfections: The Aftermath of Financial Crises

International Aspects of Financial-Market Imperfections: The Aftermath of Financial Crises. Kenneth Rogoff, 2009, Paper. “A year ago, we presented a historical analysis comparing the run-up to the 2007 US subprime financial crisis with the antecedents of other banking crises in advanced economies since World War II (Reinhart and Rogoff 2008a). We showed that standard indicators for the United States, such as asset price inflation, rising leverage, large sustained current account deficits, and a slowing trajectory of economic growth, exhibited virtually all the signs of a country on the verge of a financial crisis…” Link

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Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace

Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace. Kenneth Rogoff, Carmen Reinhart, December 2008, Paper. “The historical frequency of banking crises is quite similar in high- and middle-to-low-income countries, with quantitative and qualitative parallels in both the run-ups and the aftermath. We establish these regularities using a unique dataset spanning from Denmark’s financial panic during the Napoleonic War to the ongoing global financial crisis sparked by subprime mortgage defaults in the United States. Banking crises dramatically weaken fiscal positions in both groups, with government revenues invariably contracting, and fiscal…” Link

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Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?

Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices? Kenneth Rogoff, June 29, 2008, Paper. “We show that “commodity currency” exchange rates have remarkably robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policymakers, given the lack of deep forward markets in many individual commodities, and broad aggregate commodity indices in particular. We also explore the reverse relationship (commodity prices forecasting exchange rates) but Önd it to be notably less robust…” Link

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The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting

The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting. Kenneth Rogoff, Vania Stavrakeva, June 2008, Paper. “Are structural models getting closer to being able to forecast exchange rates at short horizons? Here we argue that misinterpretation of some new out-of-sample tests for nested models, over-reliance on asymptotic test statistics, and failure to sufficiently check robustness to alternative time windows have led many studies to overstate even the relatively thin positive results that have been found. We find that by allowing for common cross-country shocks in our panel forecasting…” (May require user account or purchase) Link

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Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison

Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, 2008, Paper. “The first major financial crisis of the twenty-first century involves esoteric instruments, unaware regulators. and skittish investors. It also follows a well-trodden path laid down by centuries of financial folly. Is the “special” problem of sub-prime mortgages really different? Our examination of the longer historical record. which is part of a larger effort on currency and debt crises, finds stunning qualitative and quantitative parallels across a number of standard financial crisis indicators…” Link

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