Found 78 article(s) for author 'Kenneth Rogoff'

From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis

From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, August 2011, Paper. “The economics profession has an unfortunate tendency to view recent experience in the narrow window provided by standard datasets.1 It is particularly distressing that so many cross-country analyses of financial crises rely on debt and default data going back only to 1980, when the underlying cycle can be a half century or more long, not just 30 years.2 This paper attempts to address this deficiency by employing a comprehensive new long-term historical database for studying debt and banking crises, inflation, and currency crashes…”  Link

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Capital Controls: Myth and Reality—A Portfolio Balance Approach

Capital Controls: Myth and Reality—A Portfolio Balance Approach. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, February 2011, Paper. “The literature on capital controls has (at least) four very serious apples-to-oranges problems: (i) There is no unified theoretical framework to analyze the macroeconomic consequences of controls; (ii) there is significant heterogeneity across countries and time in the control measures implemented; (iii) there are multiple definitions of what constitutes a “success” and (iv) the empirical studies lack a common methodology–furthermore these are significantly “overweighted” by a couple of country cases…” Link

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The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt

The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, 2011, Paper. “The authors study the history of defaults on domestic public debt and the impact on inflation and external debt defaults. The results help them draw some bold conclusions as to why countries default on external debts at seemingly low debt thresholds. The authors also explore the neglect of domestic debt in the literature and assert that repayments do not necessarily favor external over domestic creditors…” May require purchase or user account. Link

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A Decade of Debt

A Decade of Debt. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, 2011, Paper. “This paper presents evidence that public debts in the advanced economies have surged in recent years to levels not recorded since the end of World War II, surpassing the heights reached during the First World War and the Great Depression. At the same time, private debt levels, particularly those of financial institutions and households, are in uncharted territory and are (in varying degrees) a contingent liability of the public sector in many countries. Historically, high leverage episodes have been associated with slower economic growth…” Link

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Three Challenges Facing Modern Macroeconomics

Three Challenges Facing Modern Macroeconomics. Kenneth Rogoff, Paper, September 21, 2010. “There are three great challenges facing researchers in modern macroeconomics today, all brought into sharp relief by the recent financial crisis. The first is to find more realistic, and yet tractable, ways to incorporate financial market frictions into our canonical models for analyzing monetary policy. The second is to rethink the role of countercyclical fiscal policy, particularly in the response to a financial crisis where credit markets seize. A third great challenge is to achieve a better cost‐benefit analysis of…” (May require user account or purchase) Link

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On Graduation from Default, Inflation and Banking Crises: Elusive or Illusion?

On Graduation from Default, Inflation and Banking Crises: Elusive or Illusion? Kenneth Rogoff, July 2010, Paper. “This paper uses a data set of over two hundred years of sovereign debt, banking and inflation crises to explore the question of how long it takes a country to “graduate” from the typical pattern of serial crisis that most emerging markets experience. We find that for default and inflation crises, twenty years is a significant market, but the distribution of recidivism has extremely fat tails. In the case of banking crises, it is unclear whether countries ever graduate. We also examine the more recent phenomenon of IMF programs…” Link

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Predicting Agri-Commodity Prices: An Asset Pricing Approach

Predicting Agri-Commodity Prices: An Asset Pricing Approach. Kenneth Rogoff, May 10, 2010, Paper. “Volatile and rising agricultural prices put significant strain on the global fight against poverty. An accurate reading of future food price movements can be an invaluable budgetary planning tool for various government agencies and food aid programs. Using the asset-pricing approach developed in Chen, Rogoff and Rossi (2010), we show that information from the currency and equity markets of several major commodity-exporting economies can help forecast world agricultural…” (May require user account or purchase) Link

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Growth in a Time of Debt

Growth in a Time of Debt. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, May 2010, Paper. “In this paper, we exploit a new multi-country historical dataset on public (government) debt to search for a systemic relationship between high public debt levels, growth and inflation. Our main result is that whereas the link between growth and debt seems relatively weak at “normal” debt levels, median growth rates for countries with public debt over roughly 90 percent of GD? are about one percent lower than other wise: average (mean) growth rates are several percent lower. Surprisingly, the relationship between public debt and…” Link

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Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Products of Common Causes

Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Products of Common Causes, Kenneth Rogoff, October 2009, Paper. “Until the outbreak of financial crisis in August 2007, the mid-2000s was a period of strong economic performance throughout the world. Economic growth was generally robust; inflation generally low; international trade and especially financial flows expanded; and the emerging and developing world experienced widespread progress and a notable absence of crises. This apparently favorable equilibrium was underpinned, however, by three trends that appeared increasingly unsustainable as time went by…” Link

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Three Epochs of Oil

Three Epochs of Oil. Kenneth Rogoff, April 2009, Paper. “We test for changes in price behavior in the longest crude oil price series available (1861-2008). We find strong evidence for changes in persistence and in volatility of price across three well defined periods. We argue that historically, the real price of oil has tended to be highly persistent and volatile whenever rapid industrialization in a major world economy coincided with uncertainty regarding access to supply. We present a modified commodity storage model that fully incorporates demand, and further can accommodate both transitory and permanent shocks…” Link

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