Found 75 article(s) for author 'Kenneth Rogoff'

This Time is Different, Again? The US Five Years after the Onset of Subprime

This Time is Different, Again? The US Five Years after the Onset of Subprime. Carmen Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, October 22, 2012, Paper. “The strength of the US recovery has become a political issue in the presidential election. The US is doing better than other advanced economies, but famous economists associated with the Romney campaign claim this is not good enough. The US, they argue, is different. Here, the masters of the ‘this time is different’ research genre – Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff – argue that US historical performance is not different when it is properly measured, so the economy’s performance is better than expected…” Link

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Causes of Financial Crises Past and Present: The Role of the This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome

Causes of Financial Crises Past and Present: The Role of the This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, 2012, Book Chapter. “The financial press has often characterized the 2007—2008 United States subprime mess as a new breed of crisis. Indeed, this view often points to the international repercussions of the U.S.-based crisis as evidence that the globalization of financial portfolios has introduced new channels for spillovers that were never present before. In light of the unfolding Greek tragedy, there is also considerable confusion in academic and policy circles as to whether the…” Link

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Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800

Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, April 2012, Paper. “We identify the major public debt overhang episodes in the advanced economies since the early 1800s, characterized by public debt to GDP levels exceeding 90 percent for at least five years. Consistent with Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) and most of the more recent research, we find that public debt overhang episodes are associated with lower growth than during other periods. The duration of the average debt overhang episode is perhaps its most striking feature. Among the 26 episodes we identify…” Link

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Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?

Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates? Kenneth Rogoff, 2012, Paper. “This paper investigates whether oil prices have a reliable and stable out-of-sample relationship with the Canadian/U.S dollar nominal exchange rate. Despite state-of-the-art methodologies, we find little systematic relation between oil prices and the exchange rate at the monthly and quarterly frequencies. In contrast, the main contribution is to show the existence of a very short-term relationship at the daily frequency, which is rather robust and holds no matter whether we use contemporaneous (realized) or lagged oil prices in our regression…” Link

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The race is on to save Europe – Ken Rogoff explains the global consequences if debt problems aren’t fixed

The race is on to save Europe – Ken Rogoff explains the global consequences if debt problems aren’t fixed. Kenneth Rogoff, November 30, 2011, Video. “This morning, world banks are now taking steps to support the global financial system as leaders work to come up with a big and bold plan to fix Europe’s growing debt problems. The whole world needs European leaders to get this right, because if the Eurozone fails, there could be dire global consequences. According to some analysts, if the Eurozone fails: bank lending around the world could freeze; companies won’t be able to borrow, pay bills, or hire; stock markets could crash…” Link

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This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly

This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, August 7, 2011, Book. “Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing–and recovering–their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, “this time is different”–claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. With this breakthrough study, leading economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff definitively prove them wrong…” May require purchase or user account. Link

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From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis

From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, August 2011, Paper. “The economics profession has an unfortunate tendency to view recent experience in the narrow window provided by standard datasets.1 It is particularly distressing that so many cross-country analyses of financial crises rely on debt and default data going back only to 1980, when the underlying cycle can be a half century or more long, not just 30 years.2 This paper attempts to address this deficiency by employing a comprehensive new long-term historical database for studying debt and banking crises, inflation, and currency crashes…”  Link

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Capital Controls: Myth and Reality—A Portfolio Balance Approach

Capital Controls: Myth and Reality—A Portfolio Balance Approach. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, February 2011, Paper. “The literature on capital controls has (at least) four very serious apples-to-oranges problems: (i) There is no unified theoretical framework to analyze the macroeconomic consequences of controls; (ii) there is significant heterogeneity across countries and time in the control measures implemented; (iii) there are multiple definitions of what constitutes a “success” and (iv) the empirical studies lack a common methodology–furthermore these are significantly “overweighted” by a couple of country cases…” Link

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The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt

The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, 2011, Paper. “The authors study the history of defaults on domestic public debt and the impact on inflation and external debt defaults. The results help them draw some bold conclusions as to why countries default on external debts at seemingly low debt thresholds. The authors also explore the neglect of domestic debt in the literature and assert that repayments do not necessarily favor external over domestic creditors…” May require purchase or user account. Link

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