Found 77 article(s) for author 'Kenneth Rogoff'

Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes

Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes. Kenneth Rogoff, Carmen Reinhart, Paper, January 2014. “We examine the evolution of real per capita GDP around 100 systemic banking crises. Part of the costs of these crises owes to the protracted nature of recovery. On average, it takes about eight years to reach the pre-crisis level of income; the median is about 6 ½ years. Five to six years after the onset of crisis, only Germany and the US (out of 12 systemic cases) have reached their 2007-2008 peaks in real income. Forty-five percent of the episodes recorded double dips. Postwar business…” (May require user account or purchase) Link

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Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten

Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten. Carmen Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, December 24, 2013, Paper. “Even after one of the most severe multi-year crises on record in the advanced economies, the received wisdom in policy circles clings to the notion that high-income countries are completely different from their emerging market counterparts. The current phase of the official policy approach is predicated on the assumption that debt sustainability can be achieved through a mix of austerity, forbearance and growth…” Link verified June 19, 2014

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India in Stagflation, Not Crisis

India in Stagflation, Not Crisis. Kenneth Rogoff, December 23, 2013, Opinion. “When the world was wondering as to how a sophisticated financial system with robust risk practices could collapse in 2008, Kenneth Rogoff, the Thomas D Cabot Professor of Public Policy and professor of economics at Harvard University had the answer. In his book, This Times Is Different — Eight Hundred Years of Financial Folly, co-authored with Carmen Reinhart, he showed that whenever there are excesses the system collapses no matter what. In an interview with ET, he says how he sees the world and India now…”  Link verified March 28, 2014

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Fed Should Raise Inflation Target; QE Not Enough: Rogoff

Fed Should Raise Inflation Target; QE Not Enough: Rogoff. Kenneth Rogoff, December 20, 2013, Opinion. “The third tranche of quantitative easing that the US Federal Reserve undertook to stimulate the economy was not enough and the central bank should look at new tools to achieve its aims, believes Kenneth Rogoff, Professor – Economics, Harvard University. Rogoff, who co-wrote the bestselling book This Time is Different, was in Mumbai recently where he delivered the LK Jha Memorial Lecture at the Reserve Bank of India…”  Link verified March 28, 2014

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What’s the Problem With Advanced Economies?

What’s the Problem With Advanced Economies? Kenneth Rogoff, December 4, 2013, Opinion. “Is today’s slow growth in advanced economies a continuation of long-term secular decline, or does it reflect the normal aftermath of a deep systemic financial crisis? More important, do we need to answer that question definitively in order to boost the pace of economic recovery? At a recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) conference, former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers argued that today’s growth blues have deep roots that pre-date the global financial crisis…” Link verified June 19, 2014

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Why Wealth Taxes Are Not Enough

Why Wealth Taxes Are Not Enough. Kenneth Rogoff, November 4, 2013, Opinion. “Should advanced countries implement wealth taxes as a means of stabilizing and reducing public debt over the medium term? The normally conservative International Monetary Fund has given the idea surprisingly emphatic support. The IMF calculates that a one-time 10% wealth levy, if introduced quickly and unexpectedly, could return many European countries to pre-crisis public debt/GDP ratios. It is an intriguing idea. The moral case for a wealth tax is more compelling than usual today, with unemployment…” Link verified June 19, 2014

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Britain should not take its credit status for granted

Britain should not take its credit status for granted. Kenneth Rogoff, October 3, 2013, Opinion. “I am puzzled by commentators who are certain that governments had it all wrong, at every step, in balancing stimulus and stability in the aftermath of the crisis. One often sees claims, for example, that the UK borrowed heavily in the distant past with little ill effect. So today’s leaders were foolish not to engage in even heavier borrowing and stimulus. These people seem to believe everything will be fine when it comes to public debt: like Voltaire’s character Dr Pangloss, they assume “all’s for the best in the best of all possible worlds”…” Link

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America’s Endless Budget Battle

America’s Endless Budget Battle. Kenneth Rogoff, October 1, 2013, Opinion. “Perhaps investors are becoming inured to the United States’ annual debt-ceiling debacle, now playing out for the third year in a row. But, as the short-term antics become more routine, the risks of long-term dysfunction become more apparent – a point underscored by the shutdown of the federal government. President Barack Obama is right to complain of blackmail. The US Congress cannot expect to use the threat of default – that is, a weapon of mass financial destruction – as a normal means of extracting concessions. Unfortunately, because Obama himself has established a history of making concessions in the…” Link verified March 28, 2014

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Are Emerging Markets Submerging?

Are Emerging Markets Submerging? Kenneth Rogoff, September 2, 2013, Opinion. “With economic growth slowing significantly in many major middle-income countries and asset prices falling sharply across the board, is the inevitable “echo crisis” in emerging markets already upon us? After years of solid – and sometimes strong – output gains since the 2008 financial crisis, the combined effect of decelerating long-term growth in China and a potential end to ultra-easy monetary policies in advanced countries is exposing significant fragilities. The fact that relatively moderate shocks have caused…”  Link verified March 28, 2014

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Golden Slumbers

Golden Slumbers. Kenneth Rogoff, July 8, 2013, Opinion. “In principle, holding gold is a form of insurance against war, financial Armageddon, and wholesale currency debasement. And, from the onset of the global financial crisis, the price of gold has often been portrayed as a barometer of global economic insecurity. So, does the collapse in gold prices – from a peak of $1,900 per ounce in August 2011 to under $1,250 at the beginning of July 2013 – represent a vote of confidence in the global economy? To say that the gold market displays all of the classic features of a bubble gone bust is to oversimplify….”  Link verified March 28, 2014

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