Found 2 article(s) for author 'John Coglianese'

The Effects of Fuel Prices, Regulations, and Other Factors on U.S. Coal Production, 2008-2016

The Effects of Fuel Prices, Regulations, and Other Factors on U.S. Coal Production, 2008-2016.┬áJohn Coglianese, James Stock, June 15, 2017, Paper, “As is shown in Figure 1, between 2008 and 2015, U.S. coal production fell from 1,172 million tons to 897 million tons and coal employment fell from 87,000 to 66,000. In 2016, coal production declined further, to 739 million tons, 37% below its 2008 level. It is widely understood that a primary factor in this decline has been the sharp decline in natural gas prices, which has led to the substitution of natural gas for coal in electricity generation. In 2008, the national average price of natural gas delivered to an electricity generator nationally was 4.3times the price of coal, on a Btu basis; by 2016, this relative price had fallen to 1.4 as a result of the development and spread of fracking. This national decline masks regional variation, with natural gas prices being even more competitive in some regions. For the first time, in 2016 electricity generated from gas overtook generation from coal.Link

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Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand

Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand.┬áJohn Coglianese, James Stock, February 2017, Paper, “Traditional least squares estimates of the responsiveness of gasoline consumption to changes in gasoline prices are biased toward zero, given the endogeneity of gasoline prices. A seemingly natural solution to this problem is to instrument for gasoline prices using gasoline taxes, but this approach tends to yield implausibly large price elasticities. We demonstrate that anticipatory behavior provides an important explanation for this result. We provide evidence that gasoline buyers increase gasoline purchases before tax increases and delay gasoline purchases before tax decreases.Link

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