Found 43 article(s) for author 'Jeremy Stein'

The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets

The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets. Samuel Hanson, Jeremy Stein, March 2017, Paper, “Small business lending by the four largest U.S. banks fell sharply relative to other banks beginning in 2008 and remained depressed through 2014. We explore the consequences of this credit supply shock, with a particular focus on the resulting dynamic adjustment process. Using a difference-indifference approach that compares counties where the Top 4 banks had a higher initial market share to counties where they had a smaller share, we find that the aggregate flow of small business credit fell and interest rates rose from 2006 to 2010 in high Top 4 counties. Economic activity also contracted in these affected counties: fewer businesses expanded employment, the unemployment rate rose, and wages fell. Moreover, the employment effects were concentrated in industries that are most reliant on external finance, such as manufacturing.Link

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The Financial Regulatory Reform Agenda in 2017

The Financial Regulatory Reform Agenda in 2017. Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson, Jeremy Stein, Adi Sunderam, February 2017, Paper, “We take stock of the post-crisis financial regulatory reform agenda. We highlight and summarize areas of clear progress, where post-crisis reforms should either be maintained or built upon. We then identify several areas where the new regulations could be streamlined or rolled back in an effort to reduce the burden on the financial sector, particularly on smaller banks.Link

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The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet as a Financial-Stability Tool

The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet as a Financial-Stability Tool. Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson, Jeremy Stein, September 2016, Paper, “In this paper, we argue that the Federal Reserve should use its balance sheet to help reduce a key threat to financial stability: the tendency for private-sector financial intermediaries to engage in excessive amounts of maturity transformation—i.e. to finance risky assets using dangerously large volumes of runnable short-term liabilities. Specifically, we make the case that the Fed can complement its regulatory efforts on the financial-stability front by maintaining a relatively large balance sheet, even when policy rates have moved well away from the zero lower bound (ZLB). In so doing, it can help ensure that there is an ample supply of government-provided safe shortterm claims—e.g. interest-bearing reserves and reverse repurchase agreements.Link

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The Fed, the Bond Market, and Gradualism in Monetary Policy

The Fed, the Bond Market, and Gradualism in Monetary Policy. Adi Sunderam, Jeremy Stein, February 2016, Paper. “We develop a model of monetary policy with two key features: (i) the central bank has some private information about its long-run target for the policy rate; and (ii) the central bank is averse to bond-market volatility. In this setting, discretionary monetary policy is gradualist: the central bank only adjusts the policy rate slowly in response to changes in its target. Such gradualism represents an attempt to not spook the bond market. However, this effort is unsuccessful in equilibrium, as long-term rates rationally react more to a given move in short rates when the central bank moves more gradually. The same desire to mitigate bond-market volatility can lead the central bank to lower short rates sharply when publicly-observed term premiums rise. In both cases, there is a time-consistency problem, and society would be better off with a central banker who cares less about the bond market.Link

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A Comparative-Advantage Approach to Government Debt Maturity

A Comparative-Advantage Approach to Government Debt Maturity. Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson, Jeremy Stein, August 2015, Paper. “The government’s choice of shorter-maturity debt issuance may complement prudential financial regulation by crowding out private issuance, thereby limiting excess private money creation. Although greater short-term government debt increases rollover risk because of a reduction in private short-term debt, the government’s optimal debt maturity choice can reduce the social cost of excessive private debt issuance.Link

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Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle

Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle. Jeremy Stein, April 20, 2015, Paper. “Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2013, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t–2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t through t+2. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions. That is, when our sentiment proxies indicate that credit risk is aggressively priced, this tends to be followed by a subsequent widening of credit spreads, and the timing of this widening is, in turn, closely tied to the onset of a contraction in economic activity…Link

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WSJ Event: The Fed’s Challenges as it Scripts an Easy Money Exit

WSJ Event: The Fed’s Challenges as it Scripts an Easy Money Exit. Jeremy Stein, January 15, 2015, Video. “Former Federal Reserve governor Jeremy Stein, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Thursday, provided wide-ranging comments on the prospect for central bank interest rate increases this year and the factors weighing on policy makers as they ponder their decision…Link

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The Demand for Short-Term, Safe Assets and Financial Stability: Some Evidence and Implications for Central Bank Policies

The Demand for Short-Term, Safe Assets and Financial Stability: Some Evidence and Implications for Central Bank Policies. Jeremy Stein, November 25, 2014, Paper. “A number of researchers have recently argued that the growth of the shadow banking system in the years preceding the recent U.S. financial crisis was driven by rising demand for “money-like” claims — short-term, safe instruments (STSI) — from institutional investors and nonfinancial firms. These instruments carry a money premium that lowers their yields. While government securities are an important part of the supply…” (May require user account or purchase) Link

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Reforming LIBOR and Other Financial-Market Benchmarks

Reforming LIBOR and Other Financial-Market Benchmarks, Jeremy Stein, September 19, 2014, Paper, “We outline key steps necessary to reform the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) so as to improve its robustness to manipulation. We first discuss the role of financial benchmarks such as LIBOR in promoting over-the-counter market efficiency by improving transparency. We then describe how to mitigate LIBOR manipulation incentives by…”  Link

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