Found 72 article(s) for author 'Jeffrey Frankel'

Can Leading Indicators Assess Country Vulnerability? Evidence From The 2008–09 Global Financial Crisis

Can Leading Indicators Assess Country Vulnerability? Evidence From The 2008–09 Global Financial Crisis. Jeffrey Frankel, July 1, 2012, Paper. “We investigate whether leading indicators can help explain the cross-country incidence of the 2008–09 financial crisis. Rather than looking for indicators with specific relevance to the recent crisis, the selection of variables is driven by an extensive review of more than eighty papers from the previous literature on early warning indicators. Our motivation is to address suspicions that indicators found to be useful predictors in one round of crises are typically not useful to predict the next round…” Link

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Assessing China’s Exchange Rate Regime

Assessing China’s Exchange Rate Regime. Jeffrey Frankel, 2007, Paper. “The IMF Articles of Agreement forbid a country from manipulating its currency for unfair advantage. The US Treasury has been legally required since 1988 to report to Congress biannually regarding whether individual trading partners are guilty of manipulation. One part of this paper tests econometrically two competing sets of hypothesized determinants of the Treasury decisions: (1) legitimate economic variables consistent with the IMF definition of manipulation – the partners’ overall current account/GDP, its reserve changes and the real overvaluation of its currency, and (2) variables suggestive of domestic American political expediency – the bilateral trade balance, US unemployment and an election year dummy. The econometric results suggest that the Treasury verdicts are driven heavily by the US bilateral deficit, though other variables also turn out to be quite important.Link

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