Found 73 article(s) for author 'Jeffrey Frankel'

Fischer, the Fed, and US Growth

Fischer, the Fed, and US Growth. Jeffrey Frankel, December 23, 2013, Opinion. “Now that Janet Yellen has been confirmed as Chair of the US Federal Reserve Board, attention has turned to her successor as Vice Chair. US President Barack Obama’s choice, Stanley Fischer, was the perfect candidate, given his unique combination of skills, qualities, and experience. During his academic career, Fischer was one of the most accomplished scholars of monetary economics. He then served as Chief Economist of the World Bank, First Deputy Managing Director at the International Monetary Fund…”  Link verified March 28, 2014

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Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy for Kazakhstan in Light of Resource Exports

Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy for Kazakhstan in Light of Resource Exports. Jeffrey Frankel, December 19, 2013, Paper. “Kazakhstan, like other commodity-exporting and middle-income countries, is vulnerable to a variety of possible shocks that could hit in 2014 or beyond. One possibility is an adverse evolution of global financial conditions, originating in a rise in US interest rates or a switch from risk-on to risk-off attitudes of investors, which could lead to decreased availability of capital and higher interest rates in emerging markets. (The beginnings of such a possible movement seemed…” Link verified March 28, 2014

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Over-optimistic Official Forecasts and Fiscal Rules in the Eurozone

Over-optimistic Official Forecasts and Fiscal Rules in the Eurozone. Jeffrey Frankel, December 19, 2013, Paper. “Eurozone members are supposedly constrained by the fiscal caps of the Stability and Growth Pact. Yet ever since the birth of the euro, members have postponed painful adjustment. Wishful thinking has played an important role in this failure. We find that governments’ forecasts are biased in the optimistic direction, especially during booms. Eurozone governments are especially over-optimistic when the budget deficit is over the 3% cap at the time the forecasts are made. Those exceeding this cap…” Link verified March 28, 2014

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Harvard Professor Jeffrey Frankel : The Dollar and Its Rivals

Harvard Professor Jeffrey Frankel: The Dollar and Its Rivals. Jeffrey Frankel, November 21, 2013, Opinion. “Since 1976, the US dollar’s role as an international currency has been slowly waning. International use of the dollar to hold foreign-exchange reserves, denominate financial transactions, invoice trade, and as a vehicle in currency markets is below its level during the heyday of the Bretton Woods era, from 1945 to 1971. But most people would be surprised by what the most recent numbers show. There is an abundance of explanations for the downward trend. Since the Vietnam War, US budget deficits, money creation, and current-account…” Link verified March 28, 2014

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Betting on the Tortoise in Japan

Betting on the Tortoise in Japan. Jeffrey Frankel, September 12, 2013, Opinion. “In April 2014, Japan’s consumption-tax rate is set to rise from 5% to 8% in an effort to address the long-term problem of high public debt. But will the resulting loss in purchasing power bring an end to the Japanese economy’s fragile recovery, as many fear? CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphThe question is reminiscent of April 1997. Larry Summers, who was then Deputy Secretary of the United States Treasury, repeatedly warned the Japanese government that if it proceeded with a scheduled consumption-tax hike, Japan’s economy would slide…” Link verified March 28, 2014

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One Recession or Many? Double-Dip Downturns in Europe

One Recession or Many? Double-Dip Downturns in Europe. Jeffrey Frankel, July 19, 2013, Opinion. “The recent release of a revised set of GDP statistics by Britain’s Office for National Statistics showed that growth had not quite, as previously thought, been negative for two consecutive quarters in the winter of 2011-12. The point, as it was reported, was that a UK recession (a second dip after the Great Recession of 2008-09) was now erased from the history books — and that the Conservative government would take a bit of satisfaction from this fact. But it should not. Similarly, in April of this year, Britain was reported to have narrowly escaped a second quarter of negative growth…” Link verified April 4, 2014

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How Many European Recessions?

How Many European Recessions? Jeffrey Frankel, July 17, 2013, Opinion. “The release of revised GDP data by the United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics in late June seemed like an occasion for cheer, because growth had not quite been negative for two consecutive quarters in the winter of 2011-12, as previously thought. The point, as it was reported, is that a second UK recession following the global financial crisis in 2008 (a “double dip”) had now been erased from the history books, and that the Conservative government would take some satisfaction from this fact. But it should not. The right question is not whether there have been…” Link verified March 28, 2014

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Does Debt Matter?

Does Debt Matter? Jeffrey Frankel, July 4, 2013, Opinion. ““Does Debt Matter?” is the question posed by The International Economy to 20 commentators: “The recent scrutiny of the popularized version of the Rogoff-Reinhart thesis (that growth plummets when debt exceeds 90 percent of GDP) makes clear there are no simple formulas for determining the risks in the level of a nation’s debt. …Can a realistic guide be fashioned for determining whether a nation’s debt has reached a danger zone? Or are countries from here on expected to pursue fiscal reforms only if and when a crisis sets in?” My response is yes, debt matters. I don’t think I know of anyone who believes that a high level of debt is without …” Link

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Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?

Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help? Jeffrey Frankel, June 18, 2013, Paper. “Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more overoptimistic than private sector forecasts, in a sample of 31 countries. When official forecasts that are especially optimistic relative to private forecasts ex ante, they are more likely to be over-optimistic relative to realizations ex post. Euro area governments made during the period 1999-2007 assiduously and inaccurately avoided forecasting deficit levels that would exceed the 3% Stability and Growth Pact threshold; private sector forecasters were not subject to this crude bias. Three important implications.Link

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