Found 72 article(s) for author 'Jeffrey Frankel'

China Confronts the Market

China Confronts the Market. Jeffrey Frankel, September 4, 2015, Opinion, “China’s current economic woes have largely been viewed through a single lens: the government’s failure to let the market operate. But that perspective has led foreign observers to misinterpret some of this year’s most important developments in the foreign-exchange and stock markets. To be sure, Chinese authorities do intervene strongly in various ways. From 2004 to 2013, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) bought trillions of dollars in foreign-exchange reserves, thereby preventing the renminbi from appreciating as much as it would have had it floated freely…Link

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Is Tsipras the New Lula?

Is Tsipras the New Lula? Jeffrey Frankel, July 17, 2015, Opinion.Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has the chance to become to his country what South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva were to theirs: a man of the left who moves toward fiscal responsibility and freer markets. Like Tsipras, both were elected in the midst of an economic crisis. Both immediately confronted the international financial constraints that opposition politicians can afford to ignore…Link

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The Euro Crisis: Where to From Here?

The Euro Crisis: Where to From Here? Jeffrey Frankel, May/June 2015, Opinion. “Germans cannot agree to unlimited bailouts of euro members.  On the other hand, if they had rigidly insisted on the founding principles (fiscal constraints, “no bailout clause,” and low inflation as the sole goal of the ECB), the euro would not have survived the post-2009 crisis.  The impact of fiscal austerity has been to raise debt/GDP ratios among periphery countries, not lower them.  The eurozone will endure, but through a lost decade of growth.   It would help if the ECB further eased monetary policy, which it could do by buying US treasury bonds…Link

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Harvard Professor Jeffrey Frankel: New And Improved Trade Agreements?

Harvard Professor Jeffrey Frankel: New And Improved Trade Agreements? Jeffrey Frankel, May 6, 2015, Opinion. “Trade is high on the agenda in the United States, Europe, and much of Asia this year. In the US, where concern has been heightened byweak recent trade numbers, President Barack Obama is pushing for Congress to give him Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), previously known as fast-track authority, to conclude the mega-regional Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with 11 Asian and Latin American countries. Without TPA, trading partners refrain from offering their best concessions, correctly fearing that Congress would seek to take “another bite of...” Link

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A Strong Dollar Is a Sign of a Strong Economy

A Strong Dollar Is a Sign of a Strong Economy. Jeffrey Frankel, March 23, 2015, Opinion. “Any movement in the exchange rate has pros and cons. When the dollar appreciates as much as it has over the last year, the obvious disadvantage is that the loss in competitiveness by U.S. producers hits exports and the trade balance. But if the dollar had fallen by a similar amount, there would be lamentations over the debasing of the currency. Overall, the strong dollar is good news. This is because of the macroeconomic fundamentals behind it. Indeed textbook theories explain this episode unusually well…” Link

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Nominal GDP Targeting for Developing Countries

Nominal GDP Targeting for Developing Countries. Jeffrey Frankel, January 27, 2015. “Interest in nominal GDP (NGDP) targeting has come in the context of large advanced economies. Developing countries are better suited for it, however, in light of big supply shocks and terms of trade shocks, such as monsoon rains and oil import price shocks in the case of India. Under annual inflation targeting (IT), the full impact of adverse supply shocks is felt as lost real GDP. NGDP targeting automatically accommodates such shocks, while retaining the advantage of anchoring expectations. We derive the condition under which NGDP targeting…” Link

 

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Why commodity prices are down in US but up in Europe

Why commodity prices are down in US but up in Europe. Jeffrey Frankel, December 31, 2014, Opinion. OIL prices plummeted 43 per cent during the course of 2014 – good news for oil-importing countries, but bad news for Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela and other oil exporters. Some attribute the price drop to the US shale-energy boom. Others cite Opec’s (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) failure to agree on supply restrictions. But that is not the whole story…” May require purchase or user account. Link

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The Subsidy Trap

The Subsidy Trap. Jeffrey Frankel, August 14, 2014. Opinion. “Few policies place good economics so directly at odds with good politics as subsidies for food and energy. The issue of unaffordable subsidies is now front and center for three of the world’s most important new leaders: Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Indonesian President-elect Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Sisi is confronting the need to cut subsidies better than might have been expected. Modi, by contrast, is doing worse than expected – even torpedoing a long-anticipated Word Trade Organization agreement…Link

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China is not yet number one

China is not yet number one. Jeffrey Frankel, May 9, 2014, Opinion. “Many claim that China will soon overtake the US. This column argues that this claim is based on a misuse of statistics. ICP price data is necessary to compare living standards, since a dollar’s worth of yuan buys more in China than a dollar buys in the US. But the fact that rice and clothes are cheap in rural China does not make the Chinese economy larger. What matters for size in the world economy is how much a yuan can buy on world markets. Using the correct prices, the US remains the world’s largest economic power by a substantial margin….Link

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