Found 12 article(s) for author 'James Stock'

The Slow Recovery in Output after 2009

The Slow Recovery in Output after 2009. James Stock, 2017, Paper, “The U.S. economy has been expanding slowly since the recession trough in 2009. Though unemployment has declined at about the same rate as in previous recoveries, output has grown much more slowly than in the past. We explore explanations for the shortfall in output growth, using a quantitative decomposition based on growth economics. Two components of the decomposition stand out: slow growth in productivity, and a growing shortfall of labor-force participation relative to its demographic determinants. The slow growth in both components predated the recession. Our analysis gives a full treatment to cyclical effects.Link

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The Effects of Fuel Prices, Regulations, and Other Factors on U.S. Coal Production, 2008-2016

The Effects of Fuel Prices, Regulations, and Other Factors on U.S. Coal Production, 2008-2016. John Coglianese, James Stock, June 15, 2017, Paper, “As is shown in Figure 1, between 2008 and 2015, U.S. coal production fell from 1,172 million tons to 897 million tons and coal employment fell from 87,000 to 66,000. In 2016, coal production declined further, to 739 million tons, 37% below its 2008 level. It is widely understood that a primary factor in this decline has been the sharp decline in natural gas prices, which has led to the substitution of natural gas for coal in electricity generation. In 2008, the national average price of natural gas delivered to an electricity generator nationally was 4.3times the price of coal, on a Btu basis; by 2016, this relative price had fallen to 1.4 as a result of the development and spread of fracking. This national decline masks regional variation, with natural gas prices being even more competitive in some regions. For the first time, in 2016 electricity generated from gas overtook generation from coal.Link

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Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics

Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics. James Stock, June 8, 2017, Paper, “An exciting development in empirical macroeconometrics is the increasing use of external sources of as-if randomness to identify the dynamic causal effects of macroeconomic shocks. This approach – the use of external instruments – is the dynamic, macroeconometric counterpart of the highly successful strategy in microeconometrics of using external as-if randomness to provide instruments that identify causal effects. This lecture provides conditions on instruments and control variables under which external instrument methods produce valid inference on dynamic causal effects, that is, structural impulse response function; these conditions can help guide the search for valid instruments in applications.Link

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Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures

Twenty Years of Time Series – Econometrics in Ten Pictures. James Stock, Spring 2017, Paper, “Twenty years ago, empirical macroeconomists shared some common understandings. One was that a dynamic causal effect—for example, the effect on output growth of the Federal Reserve increasing the federal funds rate—is properly conceived as the effect of a shock, that is, of an unanticipated autonomous change linked to a specific source. Following Sims (1980), the use of vector autoregressions to estimate the dynamic causal effect of shocks on economic variables was widespread.Link

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The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009

The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009. James Stock, March 10, 2017, Paper, “U.S. output has been expanding only slowly since the recession trough in 2009 even though unemployment has declined as fast as previous recoveries. We use a quantitative growth-accounting decomposition to explore explanations for the output shortfall, giving full treatment to cyclical effects that, given the depth of the recession, should have implied unusually fast growth. We find that the growth shortfall has almost entirely reflected two factors: TFP has grown slowly and labor force participation fell. Both factors reflect powerful adverse forces largely—if not entirely—unrelated to the financial crisis and the U.S. recession. Indeed, these forces fairly clearly were in play before the recession. The noncyclical forces we study resulted in a shortfall of capital formation that holds back output even today.Link

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Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand

Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand. John Coglianese, James Stock, February 2017, Paper, “Traditional least squares estimates of the responsiveness of gasoline consumption to changes in gasoline prices are biased toward zero, given the endogeneity of gasoline prices. A seemingly natural solution to this problem is to instrument for gasoline prices using gasoline taxes, but this approach tends to yield implausibly large price elasticities. We demonstrate that anticipatory behavior provides an important explanation for this result. We provide evidence that gasoline buyers increase gasoline purchases before tax increases and delay gasoline purchases before tax decreases.Link

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Federal Minerals Leasing Reform and Climate Policy

Federal Minerals Leasing Reform and Climate Policy. James Stock, December 2016, Paper, “Through its minerals leasing program, the U.S. government plays a large role in the extraction of oil, natural gas, and coal. This footprint is the largest for coal: 41 percent of U.S. coal is mined under federal leases, and burning this coal accounts for 13 percent of U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Currently, producers and consumers of this coal do not bear the full social costs associated with its use. At the same time, the threat of climate change has led the international community, including the United States, to pledge significant reductions in CO2 emissions. Over the past two decades Democratic and Republican administrations have taken steps to reduce U.S. CO2 emissions by reducing use of fossil fuels.Link

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Federal Coal Program Reform, the Clean Power Plan, and the Interaction of Upstream and Downstream Climate Policies

Federal Coal Program Reform, the Clean Power Plan, and the Interaction of Upstream and Downstream Climate Policies. James Stock, April 2016, Paper. “Coal mined on federally managed lands accounts for approximately 40% of U.S. coal consumption and 13% of total U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions. The U.S. Department of the Interior is undertaking a programmatic review of federal coal leasing, including the climate effects of burning federal coal. This paper studies the interaction between a specific upstream policy, incorporating a carbon adder into federal coal royalties, and downstream emissions regulation under the Clean Power Plan (CPP). After providing some comparative statics, we present quantitative results from a detailed dynamic model of the power sector, the Integrated Planning Model (IPM). The IPM analysis indicates that, in the absence of the CPP, a royalty adder equal to the social cost of carbon could reduce emissions by roughly 3/4 of the emissions reduction that the CPP is projected to achieve.Link

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Core Inflation and Trend Inflation

Core Inflation and Trend Inflation. James Stock, June 2015, Paper. “An important input to monetary policymaking is estimating the current level of inflation. This paper examines empirically whether the measurement of trend inflation can be improved by using disaggregated data on sectoral inflation to construct indexes akin to core inflation, but with time-varying distributed lags of weights, where the sectoral weight depends on the time-varying volatility and persistence of the sectoral inflation series, and on the comovement among sectors. The model is estimated using U.S. data on 17 components of the personal consumption expenditure inflation index...” Link

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