Found 9 article(s) for author 'Interest Rates'

Interest Rate Conundrums in the Twenty-First Century

Interest Rate Conundrums in the Twenty-First Century. Samuel Hanson, March 31, 2017, Paper, “A large literature argues that long-term interest rates appear to react far more to high-frequency (for example, daily or monthly) movements in short-term interest rates than is predicted by the standard expectations hypothesis. We find that, since 2000, such high-frequency “excess sensitivity” remains evident in U.S. data and has, if anything, grown stronger. By contrast, the positive association between low-frequency changes (such as those seen at a six- or twelve-month horizon) in short- and long-term interest rates, which was quite strong before 2000, has weakened substantially in recent years. As a result, “conundrums”— defined as six- or twelve-month periods in which short rates and long rates move in opposite directions—have become far more common since 2000.Link

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Harvard’s Martin Feldstein: Labor Market Remains Tight

Harvard’s Martin Feldstein: Labor Market Remains Tight. Martin Feldstein, August 4, 2016, Opinion, “Former Reagan Economic Advisor and current George F. Baker Professor of Economics at Harvard University Martin Feldstein weighed in on concerns about the deficit and the state of the U.S. economy and job market.” Link

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Based On Current Data, Fed Should Not Raise Rates

Based On Current Data, Fed Should Not Raise Rates. Lawrence Summers, March 31, 2016, Audio. “The stock market reacted positively this week to comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. She called the economy’s performance this year somewhat mixed, but she said growth is on track and it is “appropriate for the committee to proceed cautiously in adjusting policy.”Link

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Don’t expect four Fed hikes in 2016

Don’t expect four Fed hikes in 2016. Lawrence Summers, January 25, 2016, Video. “The dismal start to financial markets this year, coupled with concerns about the slowdown in China, should keep the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates four times in 2016, as policymakers had forecast last month, former Clinton administration Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said Monday.Link

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Larry Summers: The Fed Could Hurt the Economy even if it doesn’t Raise Rates

Larry Summers: The Fed Could Hurt the Economy even if it doesn’t Raise Rates. Lawrence Summers, September 17, 2015, Opinion, “Today, the Federal Reserve will makes its most consequential announcement in years. Much attention has rightly focused on whether the federal funds rate is increased. Ultimately, though, what matters is the posture of monetary policy, which depends on both the fed funds rate and the path of expected rates. My views are clear: This is not the time for a tightening in monetary policy.Link

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Monetary Policy and Long-Term Real Rates

Monetary Policy and Long-Term Real Rates. Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy Stein, April 2014, Paper. “Changes in monetary policy have surprisingly strong effects on forward real rates in the distant future. A 100 basis point increase in the two-year nominal yield on an FOMC announcement day is associated with a 42 basis point increase in the ten-year forward real rate. This finding is at odds with standard macro models based on sticky nominal prices, which imply that monetary policy cannot move real rates over a horizon longer than that over which all prices in the economy can readjust…” Link Verified October 12, 2014

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