Found 19 article(s) for author 'GDP'

Is Larry Summers A Fan Of Nominal GDP Level Targeting?

Is Larry Summers A Fan Of Nominal GDP Level Targeting? Lawrence Summers, September 19, 2017, Audio, “You are going to have to listen to my podcast with him to find out the answer. Here is a hint: We spent a portion of the show talking about NGDP level targeting (NGDPLT) and what it would take to actually get it implemented it at the Federal Reserve. So listen to the show to find out Larry’s thoughts on NGDPLT as well as his views on secular stagnation, Fed policy since the crisis, and macroeconomic policymaking in real time. It was a fun interview.Link

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Inconvenient Truths About the US Trade Deficit

Inconvenient Truths About the US Trade Deficit. Martin Feldstein, April, 25, 2017, Opinion, “The United States has a trade deficit of about $450 billion, or 2.5% of GDP. That means that Americans import $450 billion of goods and services more than they export to the rest of the world. What explains the enormous US deficit year after year, and what would happen to Americans’ standard of living if it were to decline?Link

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Concentrating on the Fall of the Labor Share

Concentrating on the Fall of the Labor Share. Lawrence Katz, April 2017, Paper, “In this paper, we discuss an explanation for the fall in share of labour in GDP based on the rise of “superstar firms.” If globalization or technological changes advantage the most productive firms in each industry, product market concentration will rise as industries become increasingly dominated by superstar firms with high profit margins and a low share of labor in firm value-added and sales. As the importance of superstar firms increases, the aggregate labour share will fall. This hypothesis suggests that sales will increasingly concentrate in a small number of firms and that industries where concentration rises most will have the largest declines in the labour share. We find support for these predictions aggregating up micro-data from the US Census 1982-2012.Link

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Growing Out of Populism?

Growing Out of Populism? Kenneth Rogoff, April 4, 2017, Opinion, “After nine dreary years of downgrading their GDP forecasts, macroeconomic policymakers around the world are shaking their heads in disbelief: Despite a populist-propelled wave of political tumult, global growth is actually set to outperform expectations in 2017. It’s not just American exceptionalism. Although US growth is very strong, Europe has been outperforming expectations by more. There is even happy news for emerging markets, which are still bracing for US Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes but have gained a better backdrop against which to adjust.Link

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Underestimating the Real Growth of GDP, Personal Income and Productivity

Underestimating the Real Growth of GDP, Personal Income and Productivity. Martin Feldstein, March 2017, Paper, “The problems involved in estimating real output that I discuss in this paper cause the official government statistics to underestimate of the rates of growth of real GDP, real personal income, and productivity. That underestimation is important not just to economists trying to understand where the economy is going but also to the broader public and to the political system.  The understatement of real growth reflects the enormous difficulty of dealing with quality change and the even greater difficulty of measuring the value created by the introduction of new goods and services. Despite the vast amount of attention that has been devoted to this subject in the economic literature and by the government agencies, there remains insufficient understanding of just how imperfect the official estimates actually are. It is important for economists to recognize the limits of our knowledge and to adjust public statements and policies to what we can know.” Link

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Why is Growth better in the United States than in other Industrial Countries

Why is Growth better in the United States than in other Industrial Countries. Martin Feldstein, March 2017, Paper, “Although the official statistics imply that the rate of growth of real GDP in the United States has declined in recent years, it has still been substantially higher than the real growth rates in Europe and the other industrial countries, leading to higher real per capita incomes. This paper discusses ten reasons for the higher rate of real economic growth.Link

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Getting India’s women into the workforce: Time for a smart approach

Getting India’s women into the workforce: Time for a smart approach. Rohini Pande, March 10, 2017, Opinion “Between 1990 and 2015, India’s real GDP (gross domestic product) per capita grew from US$375 to US$1572, but its female labour force participation rate (LFPR) fell from 37% to 28%. This gives us a puzzle to solve: why isn’t India following the same trajectory as most other countries at a similar level of growth, where female LFP rises with GDP?Link

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The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009

The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009. James Stock, March 10, 2017, Paper, “U.S. output has been expanding only slowly since the recession trough in 2009 even though unemployment has declined as fast as previous recoveries. We use a quantitative growth-accounting decomposition to explore explanations for the output shortfall, giving full treatment to cyclical effects that, given the depth of the recession, should have implied unusually fast growth. We find that the growth shortfall has almost entirely reflected two factors: TFP has grown slowly and labor force participation fell. Both factors reflect powerful adverse forces largely—if not entirely—unrelated to the financial crisis and the U.S. recession. Indeed, these forces fairly clearly were in play before the recession. The noncyclical forces we study resulted in a shortfall of capital formation that holds back output even today.Link

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Concentrating on the Fall of the Labor Share

Concentrating on the Fall of the Labor Share. Lawrence Katz, January 2017, Paper, “The recent fall of labor’s share of GDP in numerous countries is well-documented, but its causes are poorly understood. We sketch a “superstar firm” model where industries are increasingly characterized by “winner take most” competition, leading a small number of highly profitable (and low labor share) firms to command growing market share. Building on Autor et al. (2017), we evaluate and confirm two core claims of the superstar firm hypothesis: the concentration of sales among firms within industries has risen across much of the private sector; and industries with larger increases in concentration exhibit a larger decline in labor’s share.Link

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Economic Growth and Convergence, Applied to China

Economic Growth and Convergence, Applied to China. Robert Barro, September/October 2016, Paper, “From the perspective of conditional convergence, China’s GDP growth rate since 1990 has been surprisingly high. However, China cannot deviate forever from the global historical experience, and the per capita growth rate is likely to fall soon from around 8 percent per year to a range of 3-4 percent. China can be viewed as a middle-income convergence success story, grouped with Costa Rica, Indonesia, Peru, Thailand and Uruguay. Upper-income convergence successes (toward which China is likely heading) include Chile, Hong Kong, Ireland, Malaysia, Poland, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.Link

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